MT Congressional Redistricting

[patzer]

https://www.ktvh.com/news/montana-politics/commission-parties-gear-up-for-battle-over-mts-congressional-districts?_amp=true&__twitter_impression=true

Everyone obviously so far agrees on East vs West split. Democrats want to create a district that is competitive and they proposed the Cascade Falls West but Kalispell East map. The GOP prefers excluding Bozeman .
We all know how this is going to end anyway.

That article says "and there is no big Democrat out there, sitting there, that could jump into the race at the last minute and have a massive impact"- but I can't help but wonder if Steve Bullock would have a run at the seat if it looks in reach?

[patzer]

Bullock only lost MT-01 by a point. I think it is definitely winnable for Democrats downballot, though probably not in 2022. Likely R for 2022.

How was MT-01 in 2016 and 2012 at the presidential level?  It has a lot of ancestral D mining areas moving right but it also has Bozeman and Missoula which are the 2 largest counties by population and pretty clearly moving left.  Ancestral R Flathead is the 3rd largest and it has basically been stable since the Bush era.

Trump 2016 won MT-01 by 12 points.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/da5dab01-a99c-40bf-9fa0-17cd2d8a212e

Hmmm... so a pretty big Dem swing then, on par with what happened in GA statewide. Dems should seriously compete here, but it probably takes a 2026 or 2030 R president midterm to put them over the line.

I don’t think it requires a R midterm- Bullock only lost it by 1 in a presidential year after all.

Picking it up in 2022 may be a bit of a stretch, but 2024 should be pretty much a tossup imo.