Senedd Cymru (Welsh Parliament) election, 6 May 2021

[Geoffrey Howe]

Labour hold Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney with 61% - a decent result aided by UKIP tanking as expected.

UKIP have gone down 19 points; Lab up 14 and Tories 6. Very crudely - I stress - that means 75% of UKIP votes going red.

[Geoffrey Howe]

Conservatives Gain Vale of Clwyd by a squeeker. 10792 to 10426, with 2972 for Plaid.

2.25 point swing away from Lab.

[Geoffrey Howe]

Mark Drakeford is better known than Keir Starmer in Wales. His government got to take much more credit for the coronavirus response/vaccine rollout than English and Scottish Labour did. The SNP also seems to doing relatively well despite its scandals - perhaps people throughout the country are just getting behind their state government, or Westminster in the absence of one.

I think this point can not be underestimated. In opinion polling before 2019, the UK Labour leader was consistently better known than the Welsh Labour leader. Since Covid, Drakeford's numbers are basically the same as Boris Johnson in terms of numbers who can give an opinion and notably higher than Keir Starmer.

Never has a Welsh politician been so well known.

This make drakeford a future leadership candidate?

I think it's a strong incumbency effect around COVID. I doubt he'd go down well in England.