Likelier to flip - FL or OH

[Pink Panther]

Probably FL for now. I believe that R's are close to maxed out in the rurals and small towns, but D's are going to need quite a bit of work and luck to make up the margins. Even though growth has been fantastic and it has had a sizable lurch to the left in recent years, the Columbus area won't be enough to flip back Ohio, and I wouldn't put much stock into the Cleveland and Cincinnati areas, either, especially in their predominantly WWC areas, although there is some vote to gain from these areas. And the GOP still has room to grow in places like NE Ohio and the other adjacent Lake Huron seafront outside of Cleveland itself, so yeah, it's going to be extremely difficult for Dems to actually win Ohio outside of special circumstances for a while.
   As for Florida, I'm not too keen on Dems chances here as well, but atleast there might be more to work with. For the most part, I can easily see Dems continue to make gains in places like the Jacksonville, Orlando, and maybe Tampa areas, although they will in all likelihood not be massive. They will also continue to have strength in South FL. But there's a plethora of issues, as well. We all know about Miami-Dade in 2020, and although people are overestimating GOP potential there, I have doubts that Dems will go back to Obama margins in the county, let alone 2016. Maybe it's a perceived rising threat of Leftism in Latin America, maybe it's Miami Hispanics feeling displaced by the rise of more Leftist ideals in the Democratic Party, maybe it's superior GOP turnout and messaging operations(which is probably true), maybe it's a combination of the three, maybe it's something else, but from looking at Hispanics in this region, it's looking more and more clear that Trump's performance in 2020 wasn't a fluke. You also cannot forget about more Conservative retirees moving into places like the Villages, Palm Beach, Coral Gables, and a plethora of other cities and towns in the state. I guess Dems could gain with older voters, but the type that move to Florida just seem to be more religious and conservative on average. Maybe it's the low taxes? Another thing to consider is the prevalent WWC in the state, especially in places like Volusia, Brevard, and North FL, which played a huge factor into Trump's victory in the state in 2016. I can't see where Dems will regain past strength in these regions either barring dramatic coalition realignments. However, Dems still seems to have a higher floor in the state, as well as a tighter margin to close than Ohio. But I'm not that certain for future Democratic success in both of these states in the near future, to be honest.