Likelier to flip - FL or OH

[BigVic]

Two leaning red states which has been bellwethers until 2016. Which state will flip first

[GregTheGreat657]

Ohio was five points redder in 2020

[OSR stands with Israel]

Florida for now but could be Ohio if Democrats really do start to collapse in South Florida in the long run.

[Skill and Chance]

It would be really, really hard for this not to be Ohio.  Even in DeSantis vs. Brown 2024, I would still expect Ohio to have the larger R margin. 

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Rick Scott is Rick Scott.

[Chips]

Florida for now but could be Ohio if Democrats really do start to collapse in South Florida in the long run.

Pretty much this.

[TodayJunior]

Y’all know my answer.

[Xing]

A state that's been slipping away from Democrats for multiple cycles and went Republican by 8%, or a state where Democrats did badly specifically in 2018 and 2020 and that went Republican by 3.5%? Really tough choice.

[MarkD]

Florida is obviously more likely, but an event that is even more likely than FL flipping but OH not flipping is that they both flip at the same time.

[seskoog]

Florida is far more likely to flip than Ohio (due to being more urban overall), but I think both will continue to trend Republican (with OH consistently 5 points to FL’s right). In addition, FL is overall more socially liberal than OH, which could be important if the Republican Party continues to become  the party of the working-class

[Skill and Chance]

Probably OH way down the road.

[Pericles]

Florida is not only closer than Ohio and had a smaller trend, it is also an all-round more demographically friendly state for Democrats-it is a lot more urban and a lot more diverse.

[S019]

Obviously Florida, Ohio is headed in the direction of becoming Safe R

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

If recent polls are to be believed, FL due to older voters getting more D

[bagelman]

Sadly FL, as OH becomes a new MO. I wish it were otherwise despite FL having more EV.

[Politician]

Florida, though that's not saying much.

[Pink Panther]

Probably FL for now. I believe that R's are close to maxed out in the rurals and small towns, but D's are going to need quite a bit of work and luck to make up the margins. Even though growth has been fantastic and it has had a sizable lurch to the left in recent years, the Columbus area won't be enough to flip back Ohio, and I wouldn't put much stock into the Cleveland and Cincinnati areas, either, especially in their predominantly WWC areas, although there is some vote to gain from these areas. And the GOP still has room to grow in places like NE Ohio and the other adjacent Lake Huron seafront outside of Cleveland itself, so yeah, it's going to be extremely difficult for Dems to actually win Ohio outside of special circumstances for a while.
   As for Florida, I'm not too keen on Dems chances here as well, but atleast there might be more to work with. For the most part, I can easily see Dems continue to make gains in places like the Jacksonville, Orlando, and maybe Tampa areas, although they will in all likelihood not be massive. They will also continue to have strength in South FL. But there's a plethora of issues, as well. We all know about Miami-Dade in 2020, and although people are overestimating GOP potential there, I have doubts that Dems will go back to Obama margins in the county, let alone 2016. Maybe it's a perceived rising threat of Leftism in Latin America, maybe it's Miami Hispanics feeling displaced by the rise of more Leftist ideals in the Democratic Party, maybe it's superior GOP turnout and messaging operations(which is probably true), maybe it's a combination of the three, maybe it's something else, but from looking at Hispanics in this region, it's looking more and more clear that Trump's performance in 2020 wasn't a fluke. You also cannot forget about more Conservative retirees moving into places like the Villages, Palm Beach, Coral Gables, and a plethora of other cities and towns in the state. I guess Dems could gain with older voters, but the type that move to Florida just seem to be more religious and conservative on average. Maybe it's the low taxes? Another thing to consider is the prevalent WWC in the state, especially in places like Volusia, Brevard, and North FL, which played a huge factor into Trump's victory in the state in 2016. I can't see where Dems will regain past strength in these regions either barring dramatic coalition realignments. However, Dems still seems to have a higher floor in the state, as well as a tighter margin to close than Ohio. But I'm not that certain for future Democratic success in both of these states in the near future, to be honest.

[RC (a la Frémont)]

FL Gov more likely to flip than OH Gov.
OH Sen more likely to flip over FL Sen.
In a presidential race? Probably Florida.

[MargieCat]

I'm going to say Florida.

Neither is all that likely to flip though.

But I think Florida based on the sheer margin Trump carried Ohio by.

Ohio still has Sherrod Brown for now. While he might be able to get re-elected, it's more likely he won't. And once that seat goes, Ohio is gone except for maybe in the bluest of blue waves.

The reasons democrats are having trouble in Ohio (and Iowa for that matter) is a change in coalitions.

The reason they are having trouble in Florida is because of an incompetent state party. It remains to be seen whether Manny Diaz can turn things around for the FDP.

[DS0816]

Florida is obviously more likely, but an event that is even more likely than FL flipping but OH not flipping is that they both flip at the same time.

Exactly.

They vote the same.

Since Florida, which had established bellwether status after Ohio, voted with nearly all winners from 1928 to 2016, they carried differently only in 1944, 1960, and 1992. They voted the same, and not for the winner, in 2020.

For 92 years and 24 election cycles, Florida and Ohio voted the same 21 of 24 times for 87.50 percent. They will likely vote the same again in 2024. And, frankly, their bellwether days are over by comparison to three other Rust Belt states (Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin) and one other Old Confederacy state (North Carolina).

Questions like the one from this topic aren’t much of a challenge to answer. People know.

[pbrower2a]

Florida. Florida is still closer, and Ohio is hemorrhaging its urban population that was was essential to Democratic victories statewide.  Trump played up the Red (Castro) scare in Cuba del Norte, and he will get no chance at that in 2024.

[Schiff for Senate]

A state that's been slipping away from Democrats for multiple cycles and went Republican by 8%, or a state where Democrats did badly specifically in 2018 and 2020 and that went Republican by 3.5%? Really tough choice.