2021 LA-02 Special Election Runoff (4/24/2021) Megathread

[chalmetteowl]

We're less than a month away from the special election for Louisiana's 2nd congressional district (which consists of most of the city of New Orleans, as well as riverside rural areas and some urban areas of Baton Rouge).

Major candidates include Troy Carter (state senator and 2006 candidate for this district), Karen Carter Peterson (state senator and former chair of the Louisiana Democratic Party, and Gary Chambers Jr. (the "progressive challenger").

Currently on PredictIt, Troy Carter leads the pack with 77 cents, followed by Karen Carter Peterson at 23 cents, and lastly Gary Chambers Jr. with 3 cents (despite endorsements from very prominent progressive activists like Shaun King, Cenk Uygur, and Marianne Williamson).

Speaking of endorsements, Troy Carter has actually been endorsed by the previous representative of this district, Cedric Richmond (now the senior advisor to President Biden). Other big endorsements for Troy include Ro Khanna (CA-17) and Jim Clyburn (SC-6). On the other hand, Karen Peterson has a very prominent endorsement from Stacey Abrams, as well as organizations such as Democracy for America, EMILY's List, Our Revolution, and former governor of Vermont and the demon of screamin' himself, Howard Dean.

So who's gonna win?

a lot of the district isn't located in Orleans Parish and quite frankly, thinks New Orleans is run by crooks. I think Gary Chambers has a better chance than people realize

[chalmetteowl]

Wow, that would be so awesome if KCP could pull this off.

Unfortunately, I don't think she will. Troy Carter seems mostly fine though, he does have Ro Khanna's endorsement.

Down here in Louisiana competing ads have been trying to portray Troy Carter as a closet Republican and Peterson as incompetent

[chalmetteowl]

You gotta feel kind of bad for KCP though

she met or exceeded her margins everywhere except where it counted most.

white republicans in the district won it for Carter

they heard she was a Hillary superdelegate and that AOC and Stacey Abrams were supporting her. Her ads were saturating TV leading up to today

[chalmetteowl]

You gotta feel kind of bad for KCP though

she met or exceeded her margins everywhere except where it counted most.

white republicans in the district won it for Carter

they heard she was a Hillary superdelegate and that AOC and Stacey Abrams were supporting her. Her ads were saturating TV leading up to today

Probably not.  Doubt there were 7800 Republicans who voted in the runoff, much less 7800 white ones.

7800 was 8.9% of the vote total of 87,806 in so far... the district is 39.9% not black (206k of a 538k RV electorate) and had registered voters of 37% Republican and other (195k) according to Louisiana SOS voter stats.

if those 200ishk turned out at 5% (there were other races on the ballots like tax renewals that draw that turnout), that would be 10k votes. Now would Carter win those at such a rate? 90-10 would result in a 8,000 vote difference. He probably didn't get 90-10 but 70-30 was realistic.