Will TRUMP get the required 1,237 delegates before the convention?

[Erc]

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Indiana is crucial. Even if he sweeps every NE state, and gets 160/172 in California, he falls short.

That's the trouble for Trump. He's almost ran himself out of blue states.

If he wins that big in California, unpledged delegates from PA would put him over the top, most likely.

[Erc]

Slightly different question: Erc estimated here:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=226605.msg5024686#msg5024686

that there will be ~181 delegates who'll be free agents on the first ballot.  That includes both the formally unpledged delegates and the Rubio delegates in states where his suspending his campaign has automatically freed them up, and the Kasich delegates in states where they don't include pledges to candidates who don't make it on Rule 40.

If you assume that Trump will be short of a majority from pledged delegates alone, and that those 181 unbound delegates thus determine whether he wins or not, where would you put the over/under on how many of those 181 end up voting for Trump on the first ballot?  On the one hand, Cruz has been really good at recruiting these folks.  On the other hand, Roger Stone will be sending people to their hotel rooms, and some of them will be wary of crossing Trump's "I have a mandate from the people!" line.

Recall that already, 35 of them have pledged to Cruz or Kasich (compared to 4 for Trump).  Of the remainder:

New Hampshire (4): former Bush and Rubio delegates.  Possible, but not the best targets.
Alabama (1): former Rubio delegate, in a delegation that is majority Trump loyalists.  Could be leaned on hard, potentially.  He could, of course, always choose to not release himself from his binding and vote for Rubio.
Minnesota (17): likely to be stacked with Cruz loyalists.  Not good territory for Trump.
Oklahoma (15): So far Cruz 3 - Trump 1.  I expect Cruz to sweep the rest at the State Convention next month.
Vermont [8]: Do you have any idea how the Vermont GOP Convention will turn out next month?  I sure don't.  If Trump is going to have any victory at a convention, it'll be here, though odds are probably with Kasich.
Louisiana (10): 2 have already endorsed Cruz.  Four ex-Rubio delegates have made a point of stressing how Uncommitted they are.  Others, who may have been open to Trump, were turned off by Trump's threatening to sue them.  Trump may be able to pick up one or two here.
Virgin Islands (9): Hoo boy.  This seems to be a fight between Cruz and Kasich, but Trump could pick up one or two out of the spoils.
Guam (9): GOP establishment in Guam (including delegation chair) is behind Cruz, but insular territories could be open to Trump bribery.
Wyoming (5): Two have already endorsed Cruz, while another is firmly anti-Trump.  At most one, likely zero.
American Samoa (9): Two have already endorsed Trump, to one for Cruz.  Definitely the most likely to swing for Trump of all of these.
North Dakota (28): Only one for Trump so far, with the rest largely anti-Trump.  Possible a few others could be convinced if necessary.
Colorado (7): 4 pro-Cruz, and Trump has done himself no favors here.
Pennsylvania (54): The big question.

Absolute maximum is probably around 75, most of them from PA.

[Erc]

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Let's say, 1 in Minnesota, 1 in Oklahoma, 1 in Louisiana, 2 in US Virgin Islands, 1 in Guam, 4 in American Samoa, 2 in North Dakota. 5 in PA, 2 in NH.

That's what, 15 delegates? 

I was imagining (at an absolute maximum, these are not likely at all):

1 in NH, 1 in AL, 1 in OK, 8 in VT, 2 in LA, 3 in VI, 5 in GU, 7 in AS, 5 in ND, and 42 in PA.

More realistic average projections would be:

1 in AL, 1 in OK, 2 in VT, 1 in VI, 2 in GU, 4 in AS, 2 in ND, and 28 in PA, for a total of 41.

Pennsylvania is by far his easiest target, and the only place outside of the insular territories where he's likely to pick up a good share of the unbound delegates.  Vermont is a wildcard, but I would disfavor him there.

[Erc]

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If he can't hold onto his own delegates, I can't see him doing well with PA's unbound delegates.

"His own" delegates were never really his to begin with; he was just borrowing them for the first ballot, essentially.  They were chosen by local conventions, dominated by Cruz folks, so it's no surprise that Cruz is handpicking loyalists to serve as Trump delegates.

The Pennsylvania delegates are chosen on the primary ballot, directly elected by the voters.  Roughly 10% of those most likely to be elected are committed to Trump, with another 50% saying they will support the winner of their district.  Whether the latter are sincere when they say this is another question, especially if their vote makes a difference between Trump winning or losing the nomination, and especially since most of them are establishment-types.

However, I think we have to take them at their word at this point; changing their mind after the primary would (quite rightly) be viewed with extreme outrage by the Trump camp.  Whether they could get away with it due to the "boy who cried wolf" effect is another matter.

[Erc]

One other question I'm wondering about is whether there's any possible VP pick that either Cruz or Trump could make to attract support from any wavering unpledged delegates on the first ballot.  Anyone popular enough in Pennsylvania or North Dakota to attract a few extra votes?

Or maybe someone from one of the territories?  Vice President John Yob? 

Can you be a VP candidate if you're from one of the territories?  I guess I don't see why not, but it does provide a way out of the "you have to vote from someone from a different state as yourself" provision (nothing wrong with having a completely Virgin Islands ticket).  You have to have been a resident of the United States for 14 years, but I imagine most of the territories count as the United States for those purposes.

American Samoa may be a different story, of course.

Pat Toomey and John Hoeven would be the obvious choices.  We've got to bring facial hair back to presidential elections!