Will TRUMP get the required 1,237 delegates before the convention?

[dax00]

If Trump lets it be known which of his delegates exactly he wants voters to vote for, he can still get 31/34 in WV. And he's such a heavy favorite in WV, it would take more extreme campaign incompetence not to get the word out.

I expect him to fall 30 short on pledged delegates and make it up mainly with the unpledged from PA.

[TomC]

So what do we think Cruz gets to in pledged? 800? What will be the gap between them? it's 200 now, so will Trump get to 300-350 more than Cruz?

[Wisconsin+17]

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And even then he just gets to 1237.

Trump's gonna fall short.

[dax00]

So what do we think Cruz gets to in pledged? 800? What will be the gap between them? it's 200 now, so will Trump get to 300-350 more than Cruz?

Now - Trump 757, Cruz 550
Then - Trump 1195, Cruz 775

[Wisconsin+17]

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Has there been a poll in WV?

[dax00]

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Has there been a poll in WV?

No, but one would figure a Hatfield votes for a Hatfield over a McCoy.

[Wisconsin+17]

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I don't see a path to a Trump win without either Indiana or West Virginia. This is his last shot coming up at blue states.

[Derpist]

Trump is a heavy favorite to win almost all of California's delegates.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

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Has there been a poll in WV?

No, but one would figure a Hatfield votes for a Hatfield over a McCoy.

Pity that Mark Hatfield is dead.

I think that WV could be one of Trump's best states though.

[Wisconsin+17]

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He's not winning Montana.

[Mr. Morden]

Slightly different question: Erc estimated here:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=226605.msg5024686#msg5024686

that there will be ~181 delegates who'll be free agents on the first ballot.  That includes both the formally unpledged delegates and the Rubio delegates in states where his suspending his campaign has automatically freed them up, and the Kasich delegates in states where they don't include pledges to candidates who don't make it on Rule 40.

If you assume that Trump will be short of a majority from pledged delegates alone, and that those 181 unbound delegates thus determine whether he wins or not, where would you put the over/under on how many of those 181 end up voting for Trump on the first ballot?  On the one hand, Cruz has been really good at recruiting these folks.  On the other hand, Roger Stone will be sending people to their hotel rooms, and some of them will be wary of crossing Trump's "I have a mandate from the people!" line.

[Erc]

Slightly different question: Erc estimated here:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=226605.msg5024686#msg5024686

that there will be ~181 delegates who'll be free agents on the first ballot.  That includes both the formally unpledged delegates and the Rubio delegates in states where his suspending his campaign has automatically freed them up, and the Kasich delegates in states where they don't include pledges to candidates who don't make it on Rule 40.

If you assume that Trump will be short of a majority from pledged delegates alone, and that those 181 unbound delegates thus determine whether he wins or not, where would you put the over/under on how many of those 181 end up voting for Trump on the first ballot?  On the one hand, Cruz has been really good at recruiting these folks.  On the other hand, Roger Stone will be sending people to their hotel rooms, and some of them will be wary of crossing Trump's "I have a mandate from the people!" line.

Recall that already, 35 of them have pledged to Cruz or Kasich (compared to 4 for Trump).  Of the remainder:

New Hampshire (4): former Bush and Rubio delegates.  Possible, but not the best targets.
Alabama (1): former Rubio delegate, in a delegation that is majority Trump loyalists.  Could be leaned on hard, potentially.  He could, of course, always choose to not release himself from his binding and vote for Rubio.
Minnesota (17): likely to be stacked with Cruz loyalists.  Not good territory for Trump.
Oklahoma (15): So far Cruz 3 - Trump 1.  I expect Cruz to sweep the rest at the State Convention next month.
Vermont [8]: Do you have any idea how the Vermont GOP Convention will turn out next month?  I sure don't.  If Trump is going to have any victory at a convention, it'll be here, though odds are probably with Kasich.
Louisiana (10): 2 have already endorsed Cruz.  Four ex-Rubio delegates have made a point of stressing how Uncommitted they are.  Others, who may have been open to Trump, were turned off by Trump's threatening to sue them.  Trump may be able to pick up one or two here.
Virgin Islands (9): Hoo boy.  This seems to be a fight between Cruz and Kasich, but Trump could pick up one or two out of the spoils.
Guam (9): GOP establishment in Guam (including delegation chair) is behind Cruz, but insular territories could be open to Trump bribery.
Wyoming (5): Two have already endorsed Cruz, while another is firmly anti-Trump.  At most one, likely zero.
American Samoa (9): Two have already endorsed Trump, to one for Cruz.  Definitely the most likely to swing for Trump of all of these.
North Dakota (28): Only one for Trump so far, with the rest largely anti-Trump.  Possible a few others could be convinced if necessary.
Colorado (7): 4 pro-Cruz, and Trump has done himself no favors here.
Pennsylvania (54): The big question.

Absolute maximum is probably around 75, most of them from PA.

[Mr. Morden]

Slightly different question: Erc estimated here:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=226605.msg5024686#msg5024686

that there will be ~181 delegates who'll be free agents on the first ballot.  That includes both the formally unpledged delegates and the Rubio delegates in states where his suspending his campaign has automatically freed them up, and the Kasich delegates in states where they don't include pledges to candidates who don't make it on Rule 40.

If you assume that Trump will be short of a majority from pledged delegates alone, and that those 181 unbound delegates thus determine whether he wins or not, where would you put the over/under on how many of those 181 end up voting for Trump on the first ballot?  On the one hand, Cruz has been really good at recruiting these folks.  On the other hand, Roger Stone will be sending people to their hotel rooms, and some of them will be wary of crossing Trump's "I have a mandate from the people!" line.

Recall that already, 35 of them have pledged to Cruz or Kasich (compared to 4 for Trump).  Of the remainder:

New Hampshire (4): former Bush and Rubio delegates.  Possible, but not the best targets.
Alabama (1): former Rubio delegate, in a delegation that is majority Trump loyalists.  Could be leaned on hard, potentially.  He could, of course, always choose to not release himself from his binding and vote for Rubio.
Minnesota (17): likely to be stacked with Cruz loyalists.  Not good territory for Trump.
Oklahoma (15): So far Cruz 3 - Trump 1.  I expect Cruz to sweep the rest at the State Convention next month.
Vermont [8]: Do you have any idea how the Vermont GOP Convention will turn out next month?  I sure don't.  If Trump is going to have any victory at a convention, it'll be here, though odds are probably with Kasich.
Louisiana (10): 2 have already endorsed Cruz.  Four ex-Rubio delegates have made a point of stressing how Uncommitted they are.  Others, who may have been open to Trump, were turned off by Trump's threatening to sue them.  Trump may be able to pick up one or two here.
Virgin Islands (9): Hoo boy.  This seems to be a fight between Cruz and Kasich, but Trump could pick up one or two out of the spoils.
Guam (9): GOP establishment in Guam (including delegation chair) is behind Cruz, but insular territories could be open to Trump bribery.
Wyoming (5): Two have already endorsed Cruz, while another is firmly anti-Trump.  At most one, likely zero.
American Samoa (9): Two have already endorsed Trump, to one for Cruz.  Definitely the most likely to swing for Trump of all of these.
North Dakota (28): Only one for Trump so far, with the rest largely anti-Trump.  Possible a few others could be convinced if necessary.
Colorado (7): 4 pro-Cruz, and Trump has done himself no favors here.
Pennsylvania (54): The big question.

Absolute maximum is probably around 75, most of them from PA.

Thanks Erc.  Excellent info, as always.

Anyway, seems like we'll be getting a lot more information (re: Trump's chances on the first ballot) within the next two and a half weeks, as we see 1) which delegates actually make it in PA and 2) how many delegates Trump wins in IN, plus of course 3) how Trump does in this next round of delegate selection at conventions and so forth.

After that, I guess the last big piece to the puzzle is what happens in California.

[Wisconsin+17]

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Let's say, 1 in Minnesota, 1 in Oklahoma, 1 in Louisiana, 2 in US Virgin Islands, 1 in Guam, 4 in American Samoa, 2 in North Dakota. 5 in PA, 2 in NH.

That's what, 15 delegates? 

[Donnie]

He can do it, but has very little room for error from now on.

But if he falls short by 30-50, remember he is author of
"the art of the deal" and with all of his money, it will be no
problem to secure the required 1237 delegates.

[dax00]

Let's say, 1 in Minnesota, 1 in Oklahoma, 1 in Louisiana, 2 in US Virgin Islands, 1 in Guam, 4 in American Samoa, 2 in North Dakota. 5 in PA, 2 in NH.

That's what, 15 delegates? 

Trump either gets 0 or 3 from the Virgin Islands.

I'd say 1 from Minnesota, 1 from Oklahoma, 1 from Louisiana, 3 from the Virgin Islands, 2 from Guam, 3 to 6 from American Samoa, 1 from North Dakota, 1 from New Hampshire, and 17 to 28 from Pennsylvania. that totals 30 to 44.

[Erc]

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Let's say, 1 in Minnesota, 1 in Oklahoma, 1 in Louisiana, 2 in US Virgin Islands, 1 in Guam, 4 in American Samoa, 2 in North Dakota. 5 in PA, 2 in NH.

That's what, 15 delegates? 

I was imagining (at an absolute maximum, these are not likely at all):

1 in NH, 1 in AL, 1 in OK, 8 in VT, 2 in LA, 3 in VI, 5 in GU, 7 in AS, 5 in ND, and 42 in PA.

More realistic average projections would be:

1 in AL, 1 in OK, 2 in VT, 1 in VI, 2 in GU, 4 in AS, 2 in ND, and 28 in PA, for a total of 41.

Pennsylvania is by far his easiest target, and the only place outside of the insular territories where he's likely to pick up a good share of the unbound delegates.  Vermont is a wildcard, but I would disfavor him there.

[Seneca]

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Let's say, 1 in Minnesota, 1 in Oklahoma, 1 in Louisiana, 2 in US Virgin Islands, 1 in Guam, 4 in American Samoa, 2 in North Dakota. 5 in PA, 2 in NH.

That's what, 15 delegates? 

I was imagining (at an absolute maximum, these are not likely at all):

1 in NH, 1 in AL, 1 in OK, 8 in VT, 2 in LA, 3 in VI, 5 in GU, 7 in AS, 5 in ND, and 42 in PA.

More realistic average projections would be:

1 in AL, 1 in OK, 2 in VT, 1 in VI, 2 in GU, 4 in AS, 2 in ND, and 28 in PA, for a total of 41.

Pennsylvania is by far his easiest target, and the only place outside of the insular territories where he's likely to pick up a good share of the unbound delegates.  Vermont is a wildcard, but I would disfavor him there.

So if we take your "average" projection of Trump picking up 41 unbound delegates, he may be ok going into the convention with only 1196 pledged delegates.

[Wisconsin+17]

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If he can't hold onto his own delegates, I can't see him doing well with PA's unbound delegates.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Trump can just whine, threaten violence,  and ignore the rules he agreed to until they give him the nomination. Because that's how fascism "democracy" works.

[Erc]

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If he can't hold onto his own delegates, I can't see him doing well with PA's unbound delegates.

"His own" delegates were never really his to begin with; he was just borrowing them for the first ballot, essentially.  They were chosen by local conventions, dominated by Cruz folks, so it's no surprise that Cruz is handpicking loyalists to serve as Trump delegates.

The Pennsylvania delegates are chosen on the primary ballot, directly elected by the voters.  Roughly 10% of those most likely to be elected are committed to Trump, with another 50% saying they will support the winner of their district.  Whether the latter are sincere when they say this is another question, especially if their vote makes a difference between Trump winning or losing the nomination, and especially since most of them are establishment-types.

However, I think we have to take them at their word at this point; changing their mind after the primary would (quite rightly) be viewed with extreme outrage by the Trump camp.  Whether they could get away with it due to the "boy who cried wolf" effect is another matter.

[Mr. Morden]

One other question I'm wondering about is whether there's any possible VP pick that either Cruz or Trump could make to attract support from any wavering unpledged delegates on the first ballot.  Anyone popular enough in Pennsylvania or North Dakota to attract a few extra votes?

Or maybe someone from one of the territories?  Vice President John Yob? 

[Erc]

One other question I'm wondering about is whether there's any possible VP pick that either Cruz or Trump could make to attract support from any wavering unpledged delegates on the first ballot.  Anyone popular enough in Pennsylvania or North Dakota to attract a few extra votes?

Or maybe someone from one of the territories?  Vice President John Yob? 

Can you be a VP candidate if you're from one of the territories?  I guess I don't see why not, but it does provide a way out of the "you have to vote from someone from a different state as yourself" provision (nothing wrong with having a completely Virgin Islands ticket).  You have to have been a resident of the United States for 14 years, but I imagine most of the territories count as the United States for those purposes.

American Samoa may be a different story, of course.

Pat Toomey and John Hoeven would be the obvious choices.  We've got to bring facial hair back to presidential elections!

[°Leprechaun]

Wait a minute,

I thought he was inevitable.

LOL

[Wisconsin+17]

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If they aren't supportive of Trump in the first place, I can't see them being all bent out of shape about finding a loophole to avoid supporting Trump in the end. There's nothing that requires them to be bound to the winner of their districts, and they won't be bound until the convention. That lets them wait and see how Trump actually does before making a decision.