COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron

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Florida Data Release came out!

Great news inside, with positivity rates continuing to fall statewide.

Cumulative Confirmed Cases: 3,409,165

AUG 12 - 2,876,072 (+151,436 New Weekly, +5.56%) (20.0% Positivity Rate)
AUG 19 - 3,027,503 (+150,225 New Weekly, +5.22%) (20.4% Positivity Rate)
AUG 26 - 3,179,361 (+151,853 New Weekly, +5.02%) (17.2% Positivity Rate)
SEP 03 - 3,309,153 (+129,792 New Weekly, +4.08%) (15.4% Positivity Rate)
SEP 10 - 3,409,165 (+100,012 New Weekly, +3.02%) (13.5% Positivity Rate)

Cumulative Confirmed Deaths: 48,772

As for deaths, I'll just show you all the graph, and not the actual numbers, because the numbers, they just don't add up. There's a lack of data here, so older deaths are constantly being added onto the logs, and not all the newer deaths are here yet.

Looks like deaths are peaking

Image Link

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Maps directly comparing last week's preliminary county positivity rates with this week's preliminary positivity rates county-by-county in the state of Florida:

Image Link AUG 27 - SEP 02

Image Link SEP 03 - SEP 09


Big counties with dropping positivity rates over the past week!

8.1% to 6.5% Miami-Dade County
10.5% to 9.4% Broward County
12.6% to 11.6% Palm Beach County
17.4% to 16.5% Hillsborough County
13.4% to 12.6% Orange County
13.8% to 12.7% Duval County
16.3% to 14.7% Pinellas County


Funnily Leon & Alachua, which mere weeks ago had the lowest positivity rates in the state, are stagnating and have seen modest increases over the past weeks. Pasco and Hernando are two other counties which have stagnated. Other than that the drop's relatively uniform.

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Florida Data Release came out!

Great news inside, with positivity rates continuing to fall statewide.

Cumulative Confirmed Cases: 3,485,163

AUG 19 - 3,027,528 (+150,226 New Weekly, +5.22%) (20.5% Positivity Rate)
AUG 26 - 3,179,408 (+151,880 New Weekly, +5.02%) (17.3% Positivity Rate)
SEP 03 - 3,309,219 (+129,811 New Weekly, +4.08%) (15.5% Positivity Rate)
SEP 10 - 3,409,257 (+100,038 New Weekly, +3.02%) (13.7% Positivity Rate)
SEP 17 - 3,485,163 (+75,906 New Weekly, +2.23%) (11.2% Positivity Rate)

Cumulative Confirmed Deaths: 51,240

As for deaths, I'll just show you all the graph, and not the actual numbers, because the numbers, they just don't add up. There's a lack of data here, so older deaths are constantly being added onto the logs, and not all the newer deaths are here yet.

The likely date when deaths peaked, though, was the week of September 03 to September 09, so that tells us there are around 4K to 5K deaths that haven't been counted yet as of today.

Image Link

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Maps directly comparing last week's preliminary county positivity rates with this week's preliminary positivity rates county-by-county in the state of Florida:

Image Link SEP 03 - SEP 09

Image Link SEP 10 - SEP 17


Big counties with dropping positivity rates over the past week!

6.5% to 5.8% Miami-Dade County
9.4% to 7.8%  Broward County
11.6% to 10.0% Palm Beach County
16.5% to 12.5% Hillsborough County
12.6% to 10.5% Orange County
12.7% to 10.6% Duval County
14.7% to 11.8% Pinellas County

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Well, anyway I've just re-done the table above using proper numbers up to rank #12.
This is the actual current death rate (SEP 17, 2021) per 100K by state:

1. 311 - Mississippi
2. 292 - New Jersey
3. 287 - Louisiana
4. 271 - New York state (adding NYC + rest of NYS together and dividing by 202.01249)
4. 271 - Arizona
6. 262 - Massachusetts
7. 260 - Alabama
8. 256 - Rhode Island
9. 246 - Arkansas
10. 236 - Florida
10. 236 - South Dakota
12. 234 - Connecticut

UPDATE! SEPTEMBER 30 WITH 2020 CENSUS DATA!

1. (+13) 324 - Mississippi
2. (+11) 298 - Louisiana
3. (+3) 295 - New Jersey
4. (+25) 285 - Alabama
5. (+8) 279 - Arizona
6. (+2) 273 - New York state
7. (+3) 265 - Massachusetts
8. (+2) 258 - Rhode Island
9. (+19) 255 - Florida
9. (+9) 255 - Arkansas

11. 244 - South Carolina
12. 242 - Georgia
12. 241 - South Dakota
14. 239 - Connecticut
15. 230 - Indiana
16. 229 - Nevada
17. 227 - Oklahoma
18. 226 - New Mexico
18. 226 - Pennsylvania
20. 222 - Michigan

21. 218 - Tennessee
21. 218 - Texas
23. 216 - Illinois
24. 207 - North Dakota
25. 206 - Kansas
25. 206 - Iowa
27. 203 - West Virginia
28. 197 - Delaware
29. 193 - Kentucky
30. 187 - Missouri

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UPDATE! SEPTEMBER 30 WITH 2020 CENSUS DATA!

1. (+13) 324 - Mississippi
2. (+11) 298 - Louisiana
3. (+3) 295 - New Jersey
4. (+25) 285 - Alabama
5. (+8) 279 - Arizona
6. (+2) 273 - New York state
7. (+3) 265 - Massachusetts
8. (+2) 258 - Rhode Island
9. (+19) 255 - Florida
9. (+9) 255 - Arkansas

11. 244 - South Carolina
12. 242 - Georgia
12. 241 - South Dakota
14. 239 - Connecticut
15. 230 - Indiana
16. 229 - Nevada
17. 227 - Oklahoma
18. 226 - New Mexico
18. 226 - Pennsylvania
20. 222 - Michigan

21. 218 - Tennessee
21. 218 - Texas
23. 216 - Illinois
24. 207 - North Dakota
25. 206 - Kansas
25. 206 - Iowa
27. 203 - West Virginia
28. 197 - Delaware
29. 193 - Kentucky
30. 187 - Missouri

UPDATE! OCTOBER 15!

1. (+11) 335 - Mississippi
2. (+9) 307 - Louisiana
3. (+16) 301 - Alabama
4. (+3) 298 - New Jersey
5. (+7) 286 - Arizona
6. (+3) 276 - New York
7. (+16) 271 - Arkansas
8. (+13) 268 - Florida
9. (+2) 267 - Massachusetts
10. (+3) 261 - Rhode Island

11. (+15) 257 - Georgia
11. (+13) 257 - South Carolina
13. (+5) 246- South Dakota
14. (+2) 241 - Connecticut
15. (+9) 239 - Indiana
15. (+10) 239 - Nevada
15. (+12) 239 - Oklahoma
18. (+6) 233 - Pennsylvania
19. (+5) 232 - New Mexico
20. (+13) 231 - Texas

21. (+10) 228 - Tennessee
22. (+5) 227 - Michigan
23. (+23) 226 - West Virginia
24. (+4) 220 - Illinois
25. (+7) 214 - North Dakota
26. (+6) 212 - Iowa
27. (+3) 209 - Kansas
28. (+13) 206 - Kentucky
29. (+6) 203 - Delaware
30. (+?) 196 - Montana

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Here's an updated map of counties that have fully vaccinated 70% of the eligible (12+) population. Counties in white don't have data, or don't release relevant data. (VT publishes only 1st dose data by county. ID only releases data for all citizens and all adults, but not 12+. Blaine County, ID is at 70+% for all citizens, so it can be assumed they have hit 70% of all eligible.)



And the same map for Puerto Rico by municipalities:

It's really interesting seeing the places where wealthy suburbs score higher than neighboring cities, for example in DFW, Houston metro, Jacksonville metro, Detroit metro, Washington, D.C. metro, Kansas City metro, Milwaukee metro, Chicago metro, Philadelphia metro etc. etc. etc.

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Here's an updated map of counties that have fully vaccinated 70% of the eligible (12+) population. Counties in white don't have data, or don't release relevant data. (VT publishes only 1st dose data by county. ID only releases data for all citizens and all adults, but not 12+. Blaine County, ID is at 70+% for all citizens, so it can be assumed they have hit 70% of all eligible.)



And the same map for Puerto Rico by municipalities:

It's really interesting seeing the places where wealthy suburbs score higher than neighboring cities, for example in DFW, Houston metro, Jacksonville metro, Detroit metro, Washington, D.C. metro, Kansas City metro, Milwaukee metro, Chicago metro, Philadelphia metro etc. etc. etc.

I've been wondering if the vaccination map might be a good indicator of the trend map in 2024, with more vaccinated places of all dispositions trending D and less vaccinated places of all dispositions trending R.

Every Republican who's big on Hispanic trends would have their head explode

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It's weird all of you all are talking about religion being the reason Black vaccination rates are low

But have you considered the facts that show that 64% of U.S. adults who typically attend a Historically Black denomination say that their clergy have encouraged people to get a COVID-19 vaccination, while only 2% say their clergy has discouraged it?

Image Link

And then on top of this, regular attenders of historically Black Protestant churches are far, far more likely to have received at least one dose of the COVID-19 vaccine than infrequent attenders (82% vs. 60%).

Image Link

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Unfortunately, there are certain Northern states which aren't doing so hot in terms of vaccination rates, such as Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, the Dakotas, Ohio, Indiana, and Illinois.

Personally, I'm watching for a spike in those regions starting Fall at a similar level as is being seen in the Deep South right now (like what happened last year). Fingers crossed that it doesn't happen, but it doesn't seem likely at this time.

This isn't even to speak of the Interior Northwest, where Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, and the Dakotas are looking to break all records per capita despite it not even being close to winter yet. They should be getting ready, though.

Image Link

I will now accept my accolades. 

Seriously, though, these states are not budging from the top spots. It's been quite a while. And their numbers have been up high for a while as well.

It's conceivable that West Virginia takes the top spot for COVID-19 deaths during the end if nothing gets fixed.

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I think Facebook is the main reason for vaccine hesitancy among everyone

I can't disagree with you here

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UPDATE! SEPTEMBER 30 WITH 2020 CENSUS DATA!

(...)

UPDATE! OCTOBER 15!

1. (+11) 335 - Mississippi
2. (+9) 307 - Louisiana
3. (+16) 301 - Alabama
4. (+3) 298 - New Jersey
5. (+7) 286 - Arizona
6. (+3) 276 - New York
7. (+16) 271 - Arkansas
8. (+13) 268 - Florida
9. (+2) 267 - Massachusetts
10. (+3) 261 - Rhode Island

11. (+15) 257 - Georgia
11. (+13) 257 - South Carolina
13. (+5) 246- South Dakota
14. (+2) 241 - Connecticut
15. (+9) 239 - Indiana
15. (+10) 239 - Nevada
15. (+12) 239 - Oklahoma
18. (+6) 233 - Pennsylvania
19. (+5) 232 - New Mexico
20. (+13) 231 - Texas

21. (+10) 228 - Tennessee
22. (+5) 227 - Michigan
23. (+23) 226 - West Virginia
24. (+4) 220 - Illinois
25. (+7) 214 - North Dakota
26. (+6) 212 - Iowa
27. (+3) 209 - Kansas
28. (+13) 206 - Kentucky
29. (+6) 203 - Delaware
30. (+?) 196 - Montana

UPDATE! OCTOBER 30!

1. (+5) 340 - Mississippi
2. (+5) 312 - Louisiana
3. (+9) 310 - Alabama
4. (+3) 301 - New Jersey
5. (+9) 295 - Arizona
6. (+3) 279 - New York
7. (+6) 277 - Arkansas
8. (+8) 276 - Florida
9. (+34) 273 - Oklahoma
10. (+14) 271 - Georgia

11. (+3) 270 - Massachusetts
12. (+10) 267 - South Carolina
13. (+1) 262 - Rhode Island
14. (+6) 252 - South Dakota
15. (+21) 247 - West Virginia
16. (+7) 246 - Indiana
16. (+7) 246 - Nevada
18. (+2) 243 - Connecticut
19. (+8) 241 - Pennsylvania
20. (+9) 240 - Texas

21. (+6) 238 - New Mexico
22. (+9) 237 - Tennessee
23. (+8) 235 - Michigan
24. (+12) 226 - North Dakota
25. (+3) 223 - Illinois
26. (+9) 218 - Kansas
26. (+6) 218 - Iowa
28. (+11) 217 - Kentucky
29. (+20) 216 - Montana
30. (+8) 211 - Delaware

Ah crap you all just look at that Oklahoma number. Literally burst into the top ten
Insane stuff, did they just dump some data?

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UPDATE! SEPTEMBER 30 WITH 2020 CENSUS DATA!

(...)

UPDATE! OCTOBER 15!

(...)

UPDATE! OCTOBER 30!

1. (+5) 340 - Mississippi
2. (+5) 312 - Louisiana
3. (+9) 310 - Alabama
4. (+3) 301 - New Jersey
5. (+9) 295 - Arizona
6. (+3) 279 - New York
7. (+6) 277 - Arkansas
8. (+8) 276 - Florida
9. (+34) 273 - Oklahoma
10. (+14) 271 - Georgia

11. (+3) 270 - Massachusetts
12. (+10) 267 - South Carolina
13. (+1) 262 - Rhode Island
14. (+6) 252 - South Dakota
15. (+21) 247 - West Virginia
16. (+7) 246 - Indiana
16. (+7) 246 - Nevada
18. (+2) 243 - Connecticut
19. (+8) 241 - Pennsylvania
20. (+9) 240 - Texas

21. (+6) 238 - New Mexico
22. (+9) 237 - Tennessee
23. (+8) 235 - Michigan
24. (+12) 226 - North Dakota
25. (+3) 223 - Illinois
26. (+9) 218 - Kansas
26. (+6) 218 - Iowa
28. (+11) 217 - Kentucky
29. (+20) 216 - Montana
30. (+8) 211 - Delaware

UPDATE! NOVEMBER 15!

1. (+4) 344 - Mississippi
2. (+8) 318 - Alabama
3. (+3) 315 - Louisiana
4. (+2) 303 - New Jersey
5. (+8) 303 - Arizona
6. (+7) 284 - Arkansas
7. (+6) 282 - Florida
8. (+1) 280 - New York
8. (+7) 280 - Oklahoma
10. (+8) 279 - Georgia

11. (+3) 273 - Massachusetts
12. (+5) 272 - South Carolina
13. (+1) 263 - Rhode Island
14. (+5) 257 - South Dakota
14. (+10) 257 - West Virginia
16. (+6) 252 - Indiana
16. (+5) 251 - Nevada
18. (+8) 249 - Pennsylvania
19. (+6) 246 - Texas
20. (+1) 244 - Connecticut

21. (+6) 244 - New Mexico
22. (+6) 241 - Michigan
22. (+4) 241 - Tennessee
24. (+7) 233 - North Dakota
25. (+13) 229 - Montana
26. (+10) 227 - Kentucky
27. (+3) 226 - Illinois
28. (+7) 225 - Kansas
28. 225 - Wyoming
28. (+7) 225 - Iowa

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Abolish teachers unions.

https://twitter.com/LoriAHiggins/status/1461076205273169925

Yeah, they're as bad as cop unions at this point. What lazy, entitled people.

Yeah Imma have to agree with this point
Never have met a teacher who remotely* cares about their students who thinks distance "learning" was anything but a massive negative for everyone

Only "teachers" who want this are the ones who don't intend to work.

*pun (?) somewhat intended

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What if scientists created an uber-infectious version of COVID with zero death rate and then let it spread throughout the world, to completely outcompete actually deathly variants of COVID. Sort of like what they're doing with some mosquitoes to get rid of malaria

A Maze Runner-esque solution of course (and not one I support due to how easily it could go awry and how horrible it could get if the people at the top don't have the right intentions or are incompetent), but interesting to think about

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https://twitter.com/jptrib1/status/1472633523043508224

Researchers say each exposure following vaccination strengthens immune response to subsequent exposures, even to new variants.

“I think this speaks to an eventual end game,” said co-author Dr. Marcel Curlin, associate professor of medicine in the OHSU School of Medicine. “It doesn’t mean we’re at the end of the pandemic, but it points to where we’re likely to land: Once you’re vaccinated and then exposed to the virus, you’re probably going to be reasonably well-protected from future variants."

(...) Researchers noted they haven't specifically examined the omicron variant, but based on the results of the study, it's anticipated that breakthrough infections from the variant will generate a similarly strong immune response among those who've been vaccinated.

I am SUPER IMMUNE 

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Even though Omicron is supposedly "flooding" hospitals and causing mass deaths, isn't it clear that these deaths aren't really caused by Omicron but just is the regular flu season wave that occurs this time of year?

Of course Omicron hospitalizations are up, if everyone has Omicron then all hospitalizations will be counted under that variant name even if there really is no major divergence from previous years.

I'm pretty sure what's going to be most important moving forward is going to be excess death counts and total hospitalizations, not Omicron-specific data (if everyone has Omicron this data's useless).