Will Florida reach #1 on COVID deaths per capita?

[It’s so Joever]

South Dakota numbers will go brrrr.

[_.]

-SNIP-

Nope, they're using the 2019 estimates too.  As to Worldometer vs CDC vs WaPo yeah there is an obvious attempt to slow roll some of the data by the states.  I tend to use the higher number of the various sources.

Thank you very much for the correction! The reason I was wrong was because to check if the population was 2020 census all I did was multiply some of the Southern states' death counts by the death rates and then saw that they were more or less similar to the 2020 Census result (with some being dead-on!). Only now that I check states in which there were significant overperformances and underperformance do I see the differences.

Well, anyway I've just re-done the table above using proper numbers up to rank #12.
This is the actual current death rate (SEP 17, 2021) per 100K by state:

1. 311 - Mississippi
2. 292 - New Jersey
3. 287 - Louisiana
4. 271 - New York state (adding NYC + rest of NYS together and dividing by 202.01249)
4. 271 - Arizona
6. 262 - Massachusetts
7. 260 - Alabama
8. 256 - Rhode Island
9. 246 - Arkansas
10. 236 - Florida
10. 236 - South Dakota
12. 234 - Connecticut

[Del Tachi]

Demographically, Florida is the exact type of state you'd expect to have a high level of Covid death:  it's old and pretty non-White.

[slothdem]

The only state that has a shot at ending up ahead of the deep south is South Dakota, and that's only because of the true worst government response in the country.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Its incredible that we've had two summers now where people extrapolate short term surges as lasting indefinitely and forget that COVID is seasonal. In summer it surges in the hot states, in winter it surges in the cold states. We're already seeing cases decline with the weather, and hospitalizations and deaths will follow.

Extrapolating the current death rates as lasting indefinitely is a bit like extrapolating the death rate from the worst week of the 2nd wave in Arizona to conclude that everyone in Arizona was going to die. It's safe to say that when winter comes around it isn't going to be Florida or Mississippi leading in cases or deaths.

You're neglecting the key variable that is different now compared to last year, aren't you?

If you're talking about vaccinations this is a pretty weak argument because Florida's vaccination rate is above average. We also have other countries like Israel to look at which suggest that vaccines, while effective, are less effective than being young or not being obese.

Answer to this question depends on whether this is the last wave. If it is, Florida will hit 55,000 by first week of October, and 57K-60K by end of the year. That is MA range now.

In that case NO. Florida will not overtake.

If, however,

1. Natural Immunity Wears off
2. Vaccine immunity does as well
3. Booster attrition in terms of uptake becomes highly politized

Then Florida could see another wave on par or greater than this one next summer.

I have long felt all the discussion about DeSantis is premature. It is far too soon to say. DeSantis will probably fully recover if this is the last wave. On the otherhand, what i think the last month did is exhaust the patience  of many of those who stood by him. If he is right, and if this is the last wave, then standing firm on restrictions will probably have been worth it in the eyes of a majority of Floridians and national Republicans.

If it was for naught, and Florida has a winter wave on par with last year which kills another 10k-12K and then next summer we are back with another 20K dead, I think his support will be very vulnerable to collapsing entirely.

Ironically the die is now cast. DeSantis pivoting now would make no difference. It is all entirely up to unknowables regarding natural immunity and variants. I think it was an error to place himself in a position where his fate hinged on factors he could not control, but there we are.

Florida could end the year at 58K and then drift towards 65K by November 2022. Or it could approach 90K-100K by then.

The confounding variable is that if all of those factors are true then pretty soon other states are going to be back on the rise too. If Florida has another wave then so will Michigan, New York, Hawaii...

[ProudModerate2]

DeathSantis

[Mister Mets]

Its incredible that we've had two summers now where people extrapolate short term surges as lasting indefinitely and forget that COVID is seasonal. In summer it surges in the hot states, in winter it surges in the cold states. We're already seeing cases decline with the weather, and hospitalizations and deaths will follow.

Extrapolating the current death rates as lasting indefinitely is a bit like extrapolating the death rate from the worst week of the 2nd wave in Arizona to conclude that everyone in Arizona was going to die. It's safe to say that when winter comes around it isn't going to be Florida or Mississippi leading in cases or deaths.

Yeah, a lot of the Florida discussion is affected by recency bias.

[GeneralMacArthur]

Florida has moved into the top ten with 237.

Ahead of it are Arkansas (245) and MA/AZ/RI/AL, all at around 265.

Florida needs about 6,500 deaths to reach 267 and enter the top 5.  If it continues as its current rate that should take about two and a half weeks.  Until then, there won't be much movement, since there is a large gap between Arkansas and those four states.

Arkansas itself is also moving up the list pretty fast at a rate of about 1 death per 100,000 people per day.  Florida's rate is about 1.6.  So it may take two weeks for Florida to even pass Arkansas.

Mississippi has now reached the same rate of increase as Florida -- it has 7x fewer deaths per day for a 7x smaller population and thus moves up the list at the same rate.  For Florida to have a chance at taking the top spot, Mississippi needs to either stop deaths, or DeSantis needs to figure out a way to kill his people even more efficiently.

[Non Swing Voter]

Florida has moved into the top ten with 237.

Ahead of it are Arkansas (245) and MA/AZ/RI/AL, all at around 265.

Florida needs about 6,500 deaths to reach 267 and enter the top 5.  If it continues as its current rate that should take about two and a half weeks.  Until then, there won't be much movement, since there is a large gap between Arkansas and those four states.

Arkansas itself is also moving up the list pretty fast at a rate of about 1 death per 100,000 people per day.  Florida's rate is about 1.6.  So it may take two weeks for Florida to even pass Arkansas.

Mississippi has now reached the same rate of increase as Florida -- it has 7x fewer deaths per day for a 7x smaller population and thus moves up the list at the same rate.  For Florida to have a chance at taking the top spot, Mississippi needs to either stop deaths, or DeSantis needs to figure out a way to kill his people even more efficiently.

It's already at 239 now with updated numbers:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/covid-cases.html

It is adding about 1.64 per day according to the NYT.  So at the current rate it should hit the top 3 within a month, all else being equal... Arkansas might beat it out though and push it to 4.  Still remarkable, a total and complete failure from one of the most self-serving Gov's in the country.  Glad Biden is playing hardball with that clown.

[DINGO Joe]

Demographically, Florida is the exact type of state you'd expect to have a high level of Covid death:  it's old and pretty non-White.

But the old are relatively white and affluent

[Yoda]

How the hell does Ron Desantis run in '24 with his state as the #1 state in deaths per capita from Covid? I mean, it's the #1 issue to most voters. Republicans seem to view him as their Great Savior if trump doesn't run, but I feel like he's going to get absolutely ing killed? Honest question, what does he have going for him?

[DINGO Joe]

Florida has moved into the top ten with 237.

Ahead of it are Arkansas (245) and MA/AZ/RI/AL, all at around 265.

Florida needs about 6,500 deaths to reach 267 and enter the top 5.  If it continues as its current rate that should take about two and a half weeks.  Until then, there won't be much movement, since there is a large gap between Arkansas and those four states.

Arkansas itself is also moving up the list pretty fast at a rate of about 1 death per 100,000 people per day.  Florida's rate is about 1.6.  So it may take two weeks for Florida to even pass Arkansas.

Mississippi has now reached the same rate of increase as Florida -- it has 7x fewer deaths per day for a 7x smaller population and thus moves up the list at the same rate.  For Florida to have a chance at taking the top spot, Mississippi needs to either stop deaths, or DeSantis needs to figure out a way to kill his people even more efficiently.

Again, using 2020 Census

1--Mississippi         3112
2--New Jersey        2927
3--Louisiana           2881
4--New York           2744
5--Arizona              2728
6--Alabama            2629
7--Massachusetts    2624
8--Rhode Island      2563
9--Arkansas            2472
10--Oklahoma         2462
11--South Dakota    2368
12--Florida              2360
13--Conn                 2342
14--Georgia             2294
15--South Carolina   2269

Oklahoma has two widely different numbers reported-- a CDC numbers and a OSDH "investigation" number.  Worldometer uses the later while others use the former.  I personally view the "investigation" number as an attempt to slow roll the numbers and thus use the CDC numbers.
 

South Dakota and CT will fall behind the SEC states very soon.  It's a little more unclear how many of the SEC states will get past RI and Mass

[DINGO Joe]

I did want to give a little caveat to a statement I made earlier, besides Tennessee there is a chance that WV rises above the national average partly because their right now at a pandemic peak and poorly vaccinated and partly because they have an extremely archaic death certificate process that is not electronic and honest to god uses typewriters, so they can periodically shoot out a batch of old deaths that were Covid upon further review.

[Dan the Roman]

CDC has Florida up to 51,884. Thursday's update should bring that 53K.

[Non Swing Voter]

Florida will probably end up escaping #1 by both measures.

In terms of total deaths they are rising fast but so is Texas so Texas will probably eventually overtake California and remain at #1 indefinitely.

In terms of deaths per capita they are currently #10 at 239 but Mississippi is #1 at 310, Louisiana is #3 at 289, Alabama is #5 at 269, Arkansas is #9 at 246.  All of those states also have high death rates lately. 

So Florida probably peaks at #2 or 3 in terms of total deaths and #4 or 5 in terms of deaths per capita.

At this rate though, NY and NJ are probably going to exit the top 10 in terms of deaths per capita and it will end up going all Southern states.

[DINGO Joe]

As the last wave subsides, here's an update.

1--Mississippi    3374
2--Louisiana      3105
3--Alabama       3061
4--New Jersey   3000
5--Arizona         2910
6--New York      2807
7--Oklahoma     2803
8--Arkansas       2741
9--Florida          2717
10-Mass            2690
11-Georgia        2662
12-SC               2632
13--RI               2618
14--SD              2501
15--Indiana       2427
16--Nevada       2423
17--Conn           2418
18--Texas          2418 
19--PA               2381
20--WV              2378

So, WV did rise above the national avg and has even cracked the top 20 and given deathmentum and a rather slow reporting process, it could crack the top 15 which is impressive for a state that was almost entirely untouched by the first wave of Covid.  At the end of May 2020, Conn had 4000 Covid death out of 8700 for the whole pandemic while WV had a whopping 87 out of 4300 for the pandemic.

Wouldn't expect too much change over the next few weeks in the rankings, AZ might get past NY and GA and SC should knock Mass out of the top 10.  Beyond the top 20, Idaho and Montana have been adding the most per capita but aren't a threat for the top 20
   

[Person Man]

As the last wave subsides, here's an update.

1--Mississippi    3374
2--Louisiana      3105
3--Alabama       3061
4--New Jersey   3000
5--Arizona         2910
6--New York      2807
7--Oklahoma     2803
8--Arkansas       2741
9--Florida          2717
10-Mass            2690
11-Georgia        2662
12-SC               2632
13--RI               2618
14--SD              2501
15--Indiana       2427
16--Nevada       2423
17--Conn           2418
18--Texas          2418 
19--PA               2381
20--WV              2378

So, WV did rise above the national avg and has even cracked the top 10 and given deathmentum and a rather slow reporting process, it could crack the top 15 which is impressive for a state that was almost entirely untouched by the first wave of Covid.  At the end of May 2020, Conn had 4000 Covid death out of 8700 for the whole pandemic while WV had a whopping 87 out of 4300 for the pandemic.

Wouldn't expect too much change over the next few weeks in the rankings, AZ might get past NY and GA and SC should knock Mass out of the top 10.  Beyond the top 20, Idaho and Montana have been adding the most per capita but aren't a threat for the top 20
   

If anything, this shows that climate is about as a big influence on deaths as public health.

[DINGO Joe]

The CDC besides providing Covid death data also provides excess death data which is the percentage of deaths a state reports  compared to the average number of deaths from 2017-19.  Ideally, you'd expect that excess deaths and covid deaths by state would roughly correlate, but it's not that simple. 

For the US in 2020 the death rate was 119% of expected deaths and it's currently at 94% for 2021 (that's for all of 2021 not just to the same point last year)

So New Jersey's numbers are 128/89  which shows that they were hard hit last year, but have greatly improved vs US average this year

Florida is 117/104 so slightly better than average last year and much worse than average this year

So in these cases excess deaths and Covid ranking do closely follow their excess deaths.

However, look at Arizona 129/106  and Massachusetts 115/84  Arizona sucks both years and in fact seems likely to have the highest excess death rate over the two years of any state, meanwhile Massachusetts was better than avg last year and way better this year, but only recently was passed by Arizona for Covid deaths.  So, that doesn't correlate real well.  It should be noted that per capita, Massachusetts has administered 5X as many Covid test as Arizona, so it's seems likely that Arizona's number of covid deaths is substantially undercounted and in fact Arizona may really rival or exceed Mississippi for #1.   Texas has some pretty suspect numbers too 124/106. 

Full data is here

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

When looking at 2021 you have to be careful because some states (especially NC and WV) report slower than others. 

[DINGO Joe]

I think Alabama has a shot at the top spot.

They try real hard but don't think they can get past MS and LA

Kudos to Grumps for having faith in Alabama, I still don't think they can chased down Mississippi but they have edged past Louisiana for #2.  Right now, the only state that seems to have a chance of getting past Louisiana for the 3rd spot is Arizona which just can't seem to stop running  hot.

[Fuzzy Bear]

I don't think so, it's full of Trumpers but a lot of the old people have gotten the vaccine too. They're the rich Trumpkins, they're not fully stupid about this, just mouthing it while getting stabbed in private. 

More ignorance from MasterJedi.

I'm a fully vaccinated Trump Supporter, and I know many that are.  Indeed, I don't know a Trump supporter in Florida that isn't vaccinated (although I'm sure there are some).

African-Americans have been amongst the lowest level of vaccinated groups for most of this year.  Where are the snide remarks about those unvaccinated folks?  I notice none on this site.

That's a rhetorical question.  Unvaccinated African Americans don't deserve flak about their status.  Unvaccinated Trump supporters don't deserve any more flak on the issue than unvaccinated African-Americans.  The digs here are uncalled for, but I am considering the source.

[DINGO Joe]

Nov 14th update


1--Mississippi     3440
2--Alabama        3181
3--Louisiana       3153
4--New Jersey    3033
5--Arizona          3028
6--Oklahoma      2933
7--New York       2845
8--Arkansas        2842
9--Florida           2818
10--Georgia        2788
11-S Carolina      2732
12--Mass            2725
13--R.I               2637
14--S. Dakota     2572
15--WV               2571
16--Indiana         2518
17--Nevada         2515
18--Texas            2512
19--Pennsylvania  2492
20--New Mexico    2441
21--Connecticut    2441
22--Tennessee      2412

Arizona will knock NJ down to #5 this week and WV keeps marching up the ranks.  Both states are still relatively hot, especially Arizona.  Arizona is pretty amazing, arguably the worst at dealing with COVID.  Don't think they can catch Mississippi but Louisiana and Alabama aren't out the question.  Beyond the upper tier, the fast movers have been the smaller mountain states, Montana, Idaho and Wyoming.  ND edged back above the national average and Montana looks likely to get there too for the first time.  As has been noted, the pandemic has gotten whiter and more rural as it's gone along this year.

[DINGO Joe]

A semi-occasional update.

1--Mississippi   3478
2--Alabama      3221
3--Louisiana     3186
4--Arizona        3158
5--New Jersey  3064   
6--Oklahoma    3038
7--Arkansas      2907     
8--New York     2885
9--Florida         2869
10--Georgia      2865
11--SC             2797
12--WV            2783
13--Mass          2772
14--RI              2690
15--SD             2673
16--PA              2612
17--IN              2614
18--NV             2612
19- MI              2604
20--MT             2554
21--NM             2552
22-28  TX, TN, MO, ND, CT, KY, WY

At one point there were only 22 states above the national avg and now there are 28 as the pandemic has rolled thru more rural regions and the unvaxxed.  I can remember when WV was below CA but now it's a lock to break into the top 10.  Arizona continues to amaze and looks like it'll pass Louisiana for #3 this week.  Cases have risen quite a bit in Appalachia and the Rust Belt, but aside from the special case of WV it'll be hard for any of them to break the Southern lock on the Top 10.