I'd say Protasiewicz narrowly, though that will mean nothing for 2024. The usual suspects here will try to spin this into good or bad news though, depending on the outcome.
I don’t disagree with your second point, but if she wins it will have many repercussions on 2024 because she will decide a host of cases on gerrymandering and voting rights
If Protasiewicz and the other liberal justices are able to ungerrymander the legislative and congressional maps and enact protections against voter suppression, that would be huge for democracy in Wisconsin for future elections.