One week out: Who wins SCOWIS?

[SnowLabrador]

Who do you think will win?

[Duke of York]

Protasiewicz by around 5 to 7 points.

[Nyvin]

I have to say, the high turnout in the WOW counties is a bit worrying, but I still think it's Likely Protasiewicz.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

I have to say, the high turnout in the WOW counties is a bit worrying, but I still think it's Likely Protasiewicz.

WOW has been shifting left quite a bit, so that might not be as much of a tell as expected.

[GALeftist]

Lean Liberals

[Sir Mohamed]

I'd say Protasiewicz narrowly, though that will mean nothing for 2024. The usual suspects here will try to spin this into good or bad news though, depending on the outcome.

[coloradocowboi]

I'd say Protasiewicz narrowly, though that will mean nothing for 2024. The usual suspects here will try to spin this into good or bad news though, depending on the outcome.

I don’t disagree with your second point, but if she wins it will have many repercussions on 2024 because she will decide a host of cases on gerrymandering and voting rights

[Progressive Pessimist]

Protasiewicz by two to four points.

[TwinGeeks99]

I'd say Protasiewicz narrowly, though that will mean nothing for 2024. The usual suspects here will try to spin this into good or bad news though, depending on the outcome.

I don’t disagree with your second point, but if she wins it will have many repercussions on 2024 because she will decide a host of cases on gerrymandering and voting rights

If Protasiewicz and the other liberal justices are able to ungerrymander the legislative and congressional maps and enact protections against voter suppression, that would be huge for democracy in Wisconsin for future elections.

[Spectator]

I'd say Protasiewicz narrowly, though that will mean nothing for 2024. The usual suspects here will try to spin this into good or bad news though, depending on the outcome.

I don’t disagree with your second point, but if she wins it will have many repercussions on 2024 because she will decide a host of cases on gerrymandering and voting rights

If Protasiewicz and the other liberal justices are able to ungerrymander the legislative and congressional maps and enact protections against voter suppression, that would be huge for democracy in Wisconsin for future elections.

You have to go out of your way to draw a congressional map that gives Demcorats more than 2 Biden seats. The best I could come up with was a WI-01 that was Trump +1 and a WI-03 that was Trump +2

Not to further derail the thread. My prediction is Protasiewicz +6

[FloridaMan1845]

I'd say Protasiewicz narrowly, though that will mean nothing for 2024. The usual suspects here will try to spin this into good or bad news though, depending on the outcome.

I don’t disagree with your second point, but if she wins it will have many repercussions on 2024 because she will decide a host of cases on gerrymandering and voting rights

If Protasiewicz and the other liberal justices are able to ungerrymander the legislative and congressional maps and enact protections against voter suppression, that would be huge for democracy in Wisconsin for future elections.

I prefer the rule of Law over the “Rule of Janet”. Why do people want to get rid of Voter I.D, etc?

[walleye26]

My model projects 1.44 million votes (40% turnout) with a Janet +4 result.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Protasiewicz, but I think it'll be close.

Ngl, I feel like Protasiewicz made this race a bit too partisan for her own good (though maybe that was unavoidable). She isn't going to be getting any sort of huge crossover support anywhere though.

What this comes down to is who those people in WOW who are voting are. If they're disproportionately college educated and left leaning, Protasiewicz is clearly favored, however, if they're the more old-money conservative types and WOW bounces backa  little, this is a tossup.

[Ferguson97]

Janet by 4-5 points.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

D's win obviously, when Ron Johnson isnt on the ballot RS always underpolls

[oldtimer]

Democrats, easy win on the back of city students and very old liberals in rural areas.

Basically the only ones who turn out in obscure elections.

[redjohn]

Anecdotally, I know two Trump 2016-Biden 2020 voters who I'd classify as WI "swing voters". Both are voting for Janet. Every other Biden 2020 voter I know has voted early for Janet, and Trump 2020 voters are all voting Kelly. I think (compared to the 2020 results) Kelly gains some ground in rural regions but urban and suburban counties vote similar to their 2020 results, where the liberal candidate easily defeated Kelly.

Final prediction: Janet +4

[Xing]

Protasiewicz by 4 seems like a reasonable prediction.

[Yoda]

Protasiewicz, but I think it'll be close.

Ngl, I feel like Protasiewicz made this race a bit too partisan for her own good (though maybe that was unavoidable). She isn't going to be getting any sort of huge crossover support anywhere though.

What this comes down to is who those people in WOW who are voting are. If they're disproportionately college educated and left leaning, Protasiewicz is clearly favored, however, if they're the more old-money conservative types and WOW bounces backa  little, this is a tossup.

It's almost universally accepted that democrats lost the race in '19 b/c they took the "above the fray, high-minded legal professional" route and didn't get political enough, which failed miserably at turning out the base. They have learned, and will not make that mistake again.

[Brittain33]

Democracy wins.

[Skill and Chance]

Protasiewicz, but I think it'll be close.

Ngl, I feel like Protasiewicz made this race a bit too partisan for her own good (though maybe that was unavoidable). She isn't going to be getting any sort of huge crossover support anywhere though.

What this comes down to is who those people in WOW who are voting are. If they're disproportionately college educated and left leaning, Protasiewicz is clearly favored, however, if they're the more old-money conservative types and WOW bounces backa  little, this is a tossup.

It's almost universally accepted that democrats lost the race in '19 b/c they took the "above the fray, high-minded legal professional" route and didn't get political enough, which failed miserably at turning out the base. They have learned, and will not make that mistake again.

This.  Trying to be above the fray just doesn't work in this day and age.   Look at Hillary 2016.

[Person Man]

Protasiewicz, but I think it'll be close.

Ngl, I feel like Protasiewicz made this race a bit too partisan for her own good (though maybe that was unavoidable). She isn't going to be getting any sort of huge crossover support anywhere though.

What this comes down to is who those people in WOW who are voting are. If they're disproportionately college educated and left leaning, Protasiewicz is clearly favored, however, if they're the more old-money conservative types and WOW bounces backa  little, this is a tossup.

It's almost universally accepted that democrats lost the race in '19 b/c they took the "above the fray, high-minded legal professional" route and didn't get political enough, which failed miserably at turning out the base. They have learned, and will not make that mistake again.

This.  Trying to be above the fray just doesn't work in this day and age.   Look at Hillary 2016.

Everything is about Everything.

[Holmes]

Janet +6.5

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Janet+3.5

[lfromnj]

Janet by 7