India 2024 LS and assembly elections

[eos]

Is there a way we can tell which parties have momentum following each phase given no polls will be released

Sadly no.  Back in 2004 exit polls were allowed after each phase.  Pre-election polls in 2004 showed NDA with 350 seats and you can see the projection fall with each phase and it ended up being 250 by the end of the last phase with the final result being NDA at 189 seats.

BTW, the INC is claiming the same thing will take place and there are all sorts of structural reasons why this will not take place this year, for sure not on the same scale.

Of course now it is complete blackout until voting are completely done.

Wow so the BJP went from being expected to basically win a 2019 style victory in 2004 to outright defeat .

Correct.  I remember right after the 2004 election, the BJP was talking about BJP winning 300 seats on its own.

I remember very early on in the 2004 cycle I felt that the NDA would lose ground and most likely not win a majority.  And each phase of exit polls confirmed my view. Of course, the final result was a shock to me as to the scale of the NDA defeat.

You actually made some pretty foreshadowing posts on that thread

A ray of hope for INC.

In Tamil Nadu a powerful front of DMK, MDMK, PMK, INC, CPM, and CPI seems to have been formed.  BJP now stands alone in TN and will have to align with AIADMK.  AIADMK supremo Jayalalitha already said that it will contest at least 33 of 39 TN seats.  BJP might have to accept such terms less it gets wiped out in TN.  Even if a AIADMK-BJP front is formed most likely it will be no match for the new DMK-led front.

NCP is moving closer to a INC-NCP alliance in Maharastra and avoid a repeat of 1999 when BJP-Shiv Shiva swept the polls there due to the split of the INC and NCP.

In critial Uttar Pradesh, SP has ruled out an alliance with BJP while INC is moving close to BSP.  In a three corned battle between SP front, BSP-INC, and BJP the BJP most likely will capture less than the 29 seats it has now.  INC-BSP alliance will also help in places like MP, Rajastan, and Gujurat.  

In Bihar, JD(U) is falling apart and the BJP is also in bad shape.  RJD is looking good and the RJD-INC will for sure gain seats over the BJP-JD(U) alliance.

In Northeast India, the NDA might gain a few seats over the INC but most likely very much.

In AP. TDP-BJP still has the edge, but if an INC-TRS-CPM alliance can be formed then it could lower the TDP-BJP total from 1999.  

If these postive trends can be consolidated when the polls come in March or May 2004, the LS elections might produce a situation where no party nor front has a majority.  Both BJP and INC will have around 150 seats or so.  This will lead to a weak and unstable coalition governments and another election might come before the 5 year team is up.

 

I posted an essay from The Hindu which mimic my views that the NDA does not have it in the bag.  It is like the 1998 USA Congressional elections.  The national trend pointed toward a GOP gain but if one went disctict by disctrict a different result emerged.  Same here, a state b state analysis shows that if anything, NDA wil lose ground from 1999.

That’s an amazing prediction.

[eos]

I suppose I understand the reasons behind it, but I find it very strange that elections to the Indian Parliament are held on a rolling basis like this. I know that's how elections were held in early America, on different days in each state.

Are there any other countries that currently do this for directly elected legislatures?

Multiple phases with long intervals were initially done because of security reasons, but everyone quickly realised this could be optimised for campaigning. India went from few phases in 10-14 days in 1996 and 1998 to 6 weeks and 7 phases in 2024! There’s really no justification for a campaign this long.

[eos]

So far turnout patterns seem to match Phase 1.  Hindi belt + Maharastra down and the rest mostly flat or minor drops.  So the narrative is the same: The 2019 Modi wave area turnout is down.

On the plus side for BJP Assam turnout seems to indicate a Hindu consolidation which is very good news for BJP.

The interesting thing in Assam is that C-Voter has consistently predicted NDA 12 INC 2 AIUDF 0. In contrast, the last CNX poll moved from NDA 12 INC 1 AIUDF 1 to NDA 13 INC 0 AIUDF 1. C-Voter polling indicates that AIUDF loses Dhubri, which suggests Muslim consolidation for INC. If INC wins Dhubri, they should have a good shot at Nagoan and Karimganj. But the demographics is such that INC could win Dhubri narrowly and lose in Nagaon and Karimgang due to average AIUDF performance and religious consolidation for BJP. On the other hand, a strong AIUDF performance across the state will wipe out INC unless Gaurav Gogoi wins in Jorhat.

[eos]

This is very suboptimal.  He will most likely win, of course, but will be viewed as running from a fight.  I wonder who will run from Amethi.

I can’t find an official announcement anywhere. Are you sure they announced it?

[eos]

This is very suboptimal.  He will most likely win, of course, but will be viewed as running from a fight.  I wonder who will run from Amethi.

I can’t find an official announcement anywhere. Are you sure they announced it?

You are right.  It seems that the announcement I thought I read is not legit.

https://www.indiatoday.in/elections/lok-sabha/story/lok-sabha-polls-rahul-gandhi-likely-to-contest-from-raebareli-priyanka-gandhi-from-amethi-say-sources-2534644-2024-05-03

"Rahul Gandhi may contest from Raebareli, Priyanka Gandhi from Amethi: Sources"

This says it will be Rahul Gandhi from Rae Bareli and Priyanka Gandhi from Amethi.  Suboptimal.

I think Rahul Gandhi wants to win both Amethi and  Rae Bareli but does not want his sister in Parliment and it seems he cannot fufil both goals at the same time. 

They have just announced it, RG will contest from Rae Bareli and family loyalist and political agent K.L. Sharma in Amethi. Bad decision. RG needs his sister contesting in Amethi to drown out the media narrative of ducking a fight.

[eos]

The only silver lining is that if RG wins in Rae Bareli ( he will), he can leave Wayanad for PG in a by-election so that CPI(M) can’t attack the INC for “abandoning” Kerela.

[eos]

https://www.livemint.com/market/stock-market-news/general-elections-2024-traders-turn-to-illegal-betting-for-cues-election-betting-lok-sabha-polls-modi-bjp-nda/amp-11716356985677.html

Illegal betting markets based on ground reports have revised BJP projected seats from 334-338 to 294-298. NDA could presumably end up around 330-350 depending on how the regional allies perform.

[eos]

https://www.livemint.com/market/stock-market-news/general-elections-2024-traders-turn-to-illegal-betting-for-cues-election-betting-lok-sabha-polls-modi-bjp-nda/amp-11716356985677.html

Illegal betting markets based on ground reports have revised BJP projected seats from 334-338 to 294-298. NDA could presumably end up around 330-350 depending on how the regional allies perform.

What is your prediction . Mine is NDA around 340 and BJP around 295

I would say around 300 for BJP and 350 for NDA. I could see BJP/NDA getting less due to underperforming in Karnataka, Andhra and Maharashtra. However, I have learned not to underestimate BJP in Modi era so they could just as well end up doing 320-370. Exit polls coming out tomorrow so not long to wait for more details!

[eos]

Axis My India projections for Odisha is a big surprise.

Either BJD imploded or (more likely) remaining INC vote went over to BJP to defeat BJD. If true, BJD would have been better off accepting junior status under BJP to demoralize anti-BJD sentiment. BJP seem to have played this extremely well.

[eos]

I am actually mad that the media once again conjured a horserace narrative out of thin air. Just like 2019, i didn't buy into it this year.

Even my extended family, who despise Modi and the BJP with all their being and soul, feel optimistic about India's economic prospects and stature in the world, even if they hate what is happening socially/politically.

When even his haters have to admit this, you know he was always going to win this even without the blatant shenanigans.

I even have to admit that in many ways, Modi has delivered for the average Indian much more than the UPA governments. Things like Ayushman Bharat or the toilet-building program are things that solve people's actual daily needs and should have been done decades ago.

And all the handwringing about "Will farmers and unemployed youth punish Modi?" is another example of my peeves with media journalists: they don't understand that voters can simultaneously be disappointed with a party/leader but still view them as their best bet. Yes, India's growth has left behind many people but those people also believe that this growth will eventually reach them under the BJP. Did anyone seriously believe that the INDIA alliance would be better that NDA on this?

The opposition is ing worthless and the INC deserves to die as a party.

Nobody expected to defeat BJP and BJP seems to have been headed for a narrative defeat because they were grandstanding on winning +400. These figures were revised in the last few weeks so much so that 360 is looking very good now.

[eos]

Compilation of all exit polls



If you ask me I think there is some herding going on. The states where some exit polls show major differences are West Bengal, Karnataka, Maharashtra, Telangana, Odisha, and Andhra. Every other state is mostly similar, give or take a few seats.

That would makes sense. According to recent ground reports, BJP/NDA underperforming depended on results in Karnataka, Maharashtra and Andhra. Over performing ground reports rests on doing well in these states + the projected surprise decisive victories in WB and Telangana and shocking landslide in Odisha. The last three projected results alone add 18-30 to NDA figures. These six states could potentially make all the difference between 330 and 400.

[eos]

I am actually mad that the media once again conjured a horserace narrative out of thin air. Just like 2019, i didn't buy into it this year.

Even my extended family, who despise Modi and the BJP with all their being and soul, feel optimistic about India's economic prospects and stature in the world, even if they hate what is happening socially/politically.

When even his haters have to admit this, you know he was always going to win this even without the blatant shenanigans.

I even have to admit that in many ways, Modi has delivered for the average Indian much more than the UPA governments. Things like Ayushman Bharat or the toilet-building program are things that solve people's actual daily needs and should have been done decades ago.

And all the handwringing about "Will farmers and unemployed youth punish Modi?" is another example of my peeves with media journalists: they don't understand that voters can simultaneously be disappointed with a party/leader but still view them as their best bet. Yes, India's growth has left behind many people but those people also believe that this growth will eventually reach them under the BJP. Did anyone seriously believe that the INDIA alliance would be better that NDA on this?

The opposition is ing worthless and the INC deserves to die as a party.

Nobody expected to defeat BJP and BJP seems to have been headed for a narrative defeat because they were grandstanding on winning +400. These figures were revised in the last few weeks so much so that 360 is looking very good now.

I think a lot of that was to motivate party workers as saying you will only gain 10 seats isnt as motivating as saying you will gain 50.

Also Modi constantly successfully targeting areas that used to be unwinnable for the BJP is proof that polarization in many ways is a self fulfilling prophecy. Parties start to believe areas are unwinnable themselves so they stop making an effort at appealing to voters in those areas which makes those areas even more unwinnable. The US in the past two decades is a great example of this(with the exception of 2005-2008 when Dean Lead the DNC) and also India in the two decades prior to Modi.

Everyone knew this was going to a BJP victory but it’s all about the narratives. I think the 400 talk was more that peak Modi had not arrived for the political battles of 2024-2029. Claiming 400 seats but falling short would have been a blow. But last week has been somewhat doom and gloom for BJP so anything above 350 is looking good. If they actually deliver 400, the opposition will be completely demoralised.

[eos]

www.socialnews.xyz/2024/06/01/a-look-at-13-bellwether-seats-across-7-states-and-how-they-voted-over-the-years/

These bellwether seats are Valsad, Jamnagar, Banaskantha and Anand (in Gujarat), Faridabad, Ambala, Karnala (in Haryana), Jammu, Udhampur (Jammu), Alwar (Rajasthan), Secunderabad (Telangana), Sasaram (Bihar) and Ranchi (Jharkhand).

Do any of these seats vote against NDA?

These seats are traditionally bipolar contests between INC and BJP. I can see why they end up being “bellwethers”. Sasaram immediately jumps out, that is the former seat of Jagjivan Ram and Meira Kumar, one of the most important SC dominated seats in Bihar and India. If BJP wins, it means religious polarisation has most likely transcended caste divisions and if INC wins BJP strategy has most likely failed in Hindi heartland. I am not intimately aware of all seats, but I suspect they are bellwether for BJP core strategy succeeding or failing. Almost likely some diverse demographic combination of Upper caste, SC, OBc, Muslims.

Just a passing look, it seems Jamnagar in Gujarat includes large number of Ahir (Yadav), SC, Muslim and Upper caste. Relatively competitive even in Modi landslides, these are seats that INC need to win and will win in any competitive election cycles. If there don’t, it means BJP strategy is likely working. Other seats seem to have the same features.

Faridabad near Delhi NCT has a maze of upper and scheduled castes and both major religions and migrants labourers from all across India. Secundarabad, the only seat here from the South, has a suggestive demographic combination of Muslim + Golla (Yadav) caste + other Hindu.  BJP winning or dominating seats like Sasaram, Faridabad, and Secundarabad is bad news for INC across India in a sense. On the other hand, Ranchi is the most diverse part of Jharkand. INC winning would mean bad news for BJP in SC and ST dominated eastern India. The Jammu seats are so obviously religiously charged in the Kashmir context that INC victory here probably means very bad news for BJP across India. And unsurprisingly Alwar in Rajasthan has the combination of Muslims, Upper Caste and SC. INC winning here is probably bad news for BJP across Rajasthan and Hindi areas.

I was going to dismiss the concept of Indian “bellwethers”, but the winning combinations make a lot of sense in an Indian context. Good catch by the article, even if they failed to articulate what is possibly happening here.

[eos]

Apparently the BJP candidate for Allahabad ( not calling it Prayagraj) was a former communist party member.

A lot of that about.

West Bengal says hi.

Just a bunch of people cosplaying as Marxists, which has a nebulous meaning of “social justice” in India. Btw, BJP is expected to come close to displacing Left as second largest party in Kerela by vote share. Will have to see if that comes true.

The Thiruvanthapuram seat is predicted to be a close contest between Shashi Tharoor and BJP minister Rajeev Chandrashekar. If BJP wins, they will have officially arrived in Kerela.

[eos]

Axis My India Andhra Assembly exit poll

NDA 98-120 - 51% (+5)
-TDP 78-96 - 42%
-JSP 16-18 - 7%
-BJP 4-6 - 2%

YSRCP 55-77 - 44% (-6)
INC+ 0-2 - 2% (+1)

Odisha Assembly

BJP 62-80 - 42% (+10)
BJD 62-80 - 42% (-3)
INC 5-8 - 12% (-4)

Good riddance to YSRCP. I'm no particular fan of the TDP/NDA but the past government had no vision other than enriching their coffers — compare the trajectory of Telangana and Andhra post-bifurcation.

I never expected the BJP/NDA to lose this election, and am totally unsurprised with these exit polls. 2014/2019 rebuilt the political landscape, and the opposition has yet to provide a suitable alternative that would attract voters and challenge the BJP (rather than just running against the BJP). And I say that as someone who greatly dislikes the BJP.

If YSRCP loses, they would have been better off allying with BJP and taking a junior status in parliament for supremacy in state. Their biggest threat is being out of power and people seeing INC as the main alternative to TDP. Same with BJD. YSRCP and BJD being routed, not just losing, would be great for INC.

[eos]

India Today

NDA 140
INDIA 85
OTH 9

Most seats reporting are form Southern states

CNN News 18 has it at

NDA 251 INDIA 134 Other 16

https://www.news18.com/amp/

Very early still but SP is leading in 15 in UP. INDIA really needs SP to pull out a miracle to have any hope.

[eos]

India Today

NDA 250
INDIA 153
OTH 14

INDIA putting up a good fight in UP, Maharashtra and Karnataka.

UP is completely unexpected, Maharashtra and Karnataka not so much for me.

[eos]

The good news for INDIA is that under these numbers NDA is on track for 320-340 seats. The bad news is that counting trends usually gets better for the winning party.

Well NDA better hope that the second trend comes true again, not looking very good right now. Of course, 10 years ago they would have started the celebrations already, but they set the bar so high and promised to do it so again that it’s a narrative defeat right now.

[eos]

With these trends if the BJP is more dependent on the south it seems delimitation will be delayed again.

I am not sure, I think they will want to do it while they are in power and there’s no guarantee they will be back in 2029.

[eos]

Uttar Pradesh

NDA 40
INDIA 32
BSP 2

No one predicted this. Very shocking indeed.

Unbelievable, I am still wondering if it’s postal ballot. Doesn’t seem so. Wow.

[eos]

The good news for INDIA is that under these numbers NDA is on track for 320-340 seats. The bad news is that counting trends usually gets better for the winning party.

Well NDA better hope that the second trend comes true again, not looking very good right now. Of course, 10 years ago they would have started the celebrations already, but they set the bar so high and promised to do it so again that it’s a narrative defeat right now.

So does it look like 2014 in overall numbers so far

Running well below, but it was so long ago I don’t remember what the numbers were at this time and whether NDA ran up the score at the end. At this moment, they will be very happy to reach 2014 numbers!

They are saying on India Today that INC is behaving like a student that failed last time but is celebrating because they have passed next exam and exceeding expectations. But it will be largely be seen as narrative defeat for BJP and weaken Modi.

[eos]

Uttar Pradesh

NDA 40
INDIA 32
BSP 2

No one predicted this. Very shocking indeed. Rahul must kiss SP's feet.

INDIA is also ahead in multiple seats in Gujarat, which I don't think anyone expected.

Absolutely, if you put a gun to my head and asked for predictions I would have said they would sweep the state 26-0. It’s very weird that MP and Chattisgarh are bucking the trends of INC revival in Hindi heartland. Because of the UP numbers right now, I suspect OBC is coming out in large numbers for INDIA. Wherever there are Muslims and OBC it’s coming together for INDIA.

[eos]

India Today

NDA 273
INDIA 218
OTH 21

INDIA with 30+ seats in UP.
BJP crushing BJD in Odisha.
WB continues to be neck and neck between AITC and BJP.
INDIA narrowly leading in Maharashtra.
NDA starting to build some decent leads in Karnataka.
BJP ahead in 4 seats in the deep south.

Considering Andhra TDP+ seats are being included in NDA this time it’s not looking pretty.

[eos]

I am proud to be from UP if this turns out to be the case.

SP finally remembering it’s a titan of UP politics. Massive revival for them. INC also leading in Amethi against Smiriti Irani.

[eos]

Still early so far but if JDU and BJD had thrown their weight behind INDIA, NDA would have been in massive trouble. NDA still in trouble but this is now looking like an election that INDIA could have won if the entire opposition had come together like 1977 and 1989.