India 2024 LS and assembly elections

[Sestak]

Just want to note that jaichind spent this entire thread constantly telling us that the BJP had completely baked in losses in Karnataka and the election would revolve around whether/how they could recover those seats elsewhere. Remind me why he is supposedly an amazing source of knowledge on Asian elections that we can’t do without?

[OSR stands with Israel]

Just want to note that jaichind spent this entire thread constantly telling us that the BJP had completely baked in losses in Karnataka and the election would revolve around whether/how they could recover those seats elsewhere. Remind me why he is supposedly an amazing source of knowledge on Asian elections that we can’t do without?

I mean jaichind even in 2014/19 didn’t believe the exits that had the BJP getting the numbers they did in UP.

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=174962.msg4162662#msg4162662

BJP winning the battle of UP.  Vote share is now

BJP              51.7%
SP-BSP-RLD  36.5%
INC               6.8%

If that number holds how would that translate in seats

NDA at 60+ seats, like all those "crazy" exit polls which I rejected.

The reason posters said we need his contributions was he was good as posting news reports here

[Logical]

We need someone who collects all those politician [X] of subcaste [Y] defects to party [Z] news because I'd rather gouge my eyes out than keep track of Indian politicians.

[Logical]

Axis My India exit poll for UP
NDA 46% (64-67 seats)
INDIA 39% (8-12 seats)
BSP 8%      (0-1)

Which brings us to nationalwide total of
NDA    361-401
INDIA  131-166
OTH       8-20

Total domination by NDA. I'll try to collect state breakdowns for other exit polls when I get the time.

[Logical]

Breakdown of each alliance according to Axis My India
NDA 361-40 (+29)
-BJP 322-340 (+28)
-BJP allies 39-61 (+1)

INDIA 131-166 (+55)
-INC 60-76 (+16)
-INC allies 71-90 (+39)

Only consolation for INC is that they have regained official opposition status.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

I am actually mad that the media once again conjured a horserace narrative out of thin air. Just like 2019, i didn't buy into it this year.

Even my extended family, who despise Modi and the BJP with all their being and soul, feel optimistic about India's economic prospects and stature in the world, even if they hate what is happening socially/politically.

When even his haters have to admit this, you know he was always going to win this even without the blatant shenanigans.

I even have to admit that in many ways, Modi has delivered for the average Indian much more than the UPA governments. Things like Ayushman Bharat or the toilet-building program are things that solve people's actual daily needs and should have been done decades ago.

And all the handwringing about "Will farmers and unemployed youth punish Modi?" is another example of my peeves with media journalists: they don't understand that voters can simultaneously be disappointed with a party/leader but still view them as their best bet. Yes, India's growth has left behind many people but those people also believe that this growth will eventually reach them under the BJP. Did anyone seriously believe that the INDIA alliance would be better that NDA on this?

The opposition is ing worthless and the INC deserves to die as a party.

[eos]

Axis My India projections for Odisha is a big surprise.

Either BJD imploded or (more likely) remaining INC vote went over to BJP to defeat BJD. If true, BJD would have been better off accepting junior status under BJP to demoralize anti-BJD sentiment. BJP seem to have played this extremely well.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Breakdown of each alliance according to Axis My India
NDA 361-40 (+29)
-BJP 322-340 (+28)
-BJP allies 39-61 (+1)

INDIA 131-166 (+55)
-INC 60-76 (+16)
-INC allies 71-90 (+39)

Only consolation for INC is that they have regained official opposition status.

Does official opposition in India even work like the UK/Canada in which they now have the ability to question the PM weekly

[Logical]

Breakdown of each alliance according to Axis My India
NDA 361-40 (+29)
-BJP 322-340 (+28)
-BJP allies 39-61 (+1)

INDIA 131-166 (+55)
-INC 60-76 (+16)
-INC allies 71-90 (+39)

Only consolation for INC is that they have regained official opposition status.

Does official opposition in India even work like the UK/Canada in which they now have the ability to question the PM weekly

They get a government salary, an office, committee and speaking privileges I think.

[lfromnj]

Wonder how much of the South Indian urban seats are because of northern migrants.

[Logical]

Compilation of all exit polls



If you ask me I think there is some herding going on. The states where some exit polls show major differences are West Bengal, Karnataka, Maharashtra, Telangana, Odisha, and Andhra. Every other state is mostly similar, give or take a few seats.

[eos]

I am actually mad that the media once again conjured a horserace narrative out of thin air. Just like 2019, i didn't buy into it this year.

Even my extended family, who despise Modi and the BJP with all their being and soul, feel optimistic about India's economic prospects and stature in the world, even if they hate what is happening socially/politically.

When even his haters have to admit this, you know he was always going to win this even without the blatant shenanigans.

I even have to admit that in many ways, Modi has delivered for the average Indian much more than the UPA governments. Things like Ayushman Bharat or the toilet-building program are things that solve people's actual daily needs and should have been done decades ago.

And all the handwringing about "Will farmers and unemployed youth punish Modi?" is another example of my peeves with media journalists: they don't understand that voters can simultaneously be disappointed with a party/leader but still view them as their best bet. Yes, India's growth has left behind many people but those people also believe that this growth will eventually reach them under the BJP. Did anyone seriously believe that the INDIA alliance would be better that NDA on this?

The opposition is ing worthless and the INC deserves to die as a party.

Nobody expected to defeat BJP and BJP seems to have been headed for a narrative defeat because they were grandstanding on winning +400. These figures were revised in the last few weeks so much so that 360 is looking very good now.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Given how badly INC has done in the past two elections it's probably a good election for INC as long as they regain official opposition and BJP misses out on 400.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I even have to admit that in many ways, Modi has delivered for the average Indian much more than the UPA governments. Things like Ayushman Bharat or the toilet-building program are things that solve people's actual daily needs and should have been done decades ago.

Quite. One of the classic awkward facts about Indian politics for a long time has been that, yes, the BJP and selected allies are a bunch of noxious bigots (or enablers of said bigots), but they have a sense of the importance of moving the country forwards that other political forces largely lack* and an understanding that 'basic social policy' is something worth taking seriously. They are bastards, but their enemies are just bloody useless.

_{*And not just lack but tend to actively demonize and defenestrate those amongst them who are concerned about that question.}

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Anyway, Indian exit polls are not always massively reliable so take everything with a pinch of salt - and more than just a pinch as far as details are concerned - but it seems clear enough that the government has been returned comfortably enough.

[OSR stands with Israel]

I am actually mad that the media once again conjured a horserace narrative out of thin air. Just like 2019, i didn't buy into it this year.

Even my extended family, who despise Modi and the BJP with all their being and soul, feel optimistic about India's economic prospects and stature in the world, even if they hate what is happening socially/politically.

When even his haters have to admit this, you know he was always going to win this even without the blatant shenanigans.

I even have to admit that in many ways, Modi has delivered for the average Indian much more than the UPA governments. Things like Ayushman Bharat or the toilet-building program are things that solve people's actual daily needs and should have been done decades ago.

And all the handwringing about "Will farmers and unemployed youth punish Modi?" is another example of my peeves with media journalists: they don't understand that voters can simultaneously be disappointed with a party/leader but still view them as their best bet. Yes, India's growth has left behind many people but those people also believe that this growth will eventually reach them under the BJP. Did anyone seriously believe that the INDIA alliance would be better that NDA on this?

The opposition is ing worthless and the INC deserves to die as a party.

Nobody expected to defeat BJP and BJP seems to have been headed for a narrative defeat because they were grandstanding on winning +400. These figures were revised in the last few weeks so much so that 360 is looking very good now.

I think a lot of that was to motivate party workers as saying you will only gain 10 seats isnt as motivating as saying you will gain 50.

Also Modi constantly successfully targeting areas that used to be unwinnable for the BJP is proof that polarization in many ways is a self fulfilling prophecy. Parties start to believe areas are unwinnable themselves so they stop making an effort at appealing to voters in those areas which makes those areas even more unwinnable. The US in the past two decades is a great example of this(with the exception of 2005-2008 when Dean Lead the DNC) and also India in the two decades prior to Modi.

[randomusername]

Just want to note that jaichind spent this entire thread constantly telling us that the BJP had completely baked in losses in Karnataka and the election would revolve around whether/how they could recover those seats elsewhere. Remind me why he is supposedly an amazing source of knowledge on Asian elections that we can’t do without?

He has really good knowledge on the history of lot states and individual seats

[eos]

Compilation of all exit polls



If you ask me I think there is some herding going on. The states where some exit polls show major differences are West Bengal, Karnataka, Maharashtra, Telangana, Odisha, and Andhra. Every other state is mostly similar, give or take a few seats.

That would makes sense. According to recent ground reports, BJP/NDA underperforming depended on results in Karnataka, Maharashtra and Andhra. Over performing ground reports rests on doing well in these states + the projected surprise decisive victories in WB and Telangana and shocking landslide in Odisha. The last three projected results alone add 18-30 to NDA figures. These six states could potentially make all the difference between 330 and 400.

[randomusername]

I'm honestly kind of surprised that there's belief that the BJP/NDA will lose a significant portion of seats. Given Modi-Shah's tenacity, what we saw in Surat, public fervor over the Ram temple, my expectation is that at worst they match 2019 or even gain some seats. I might be completely off the mark here but that's my feeling.

I could see them losing some ground in Bihar but making it up in West Bengal.

Still TBD because who knows the gap between the results and exit polls but it seems like my prediction was correct

[OSR stands with Israel]

Anyway here's my prediction:

NDA: 370
I.N.D.I.A: 124
Others: 49

[eos]

I am actually mad that the media once again conjured a horserace narrative out of thin air. Just like 2019, i didn't buy into it this year.

Even my extended family, who despise Modi and the BJP with all their being and soul, feel optimistic about India's economic prospects and stature in the world, even if they hate what is happening socially/politically.

When even his haters have to admit this, you know he was always going to win this even without the blatant shenanigans.

I even have to admit that in many ways, Modi has delivered for the average Indian much more than the UPA governments. Things like Ayushman Bharat or the toilet-building program are things that solve people's actual daily needs and should have been done decades ago.

And all the handwringing about "Will farmers and unemployed youth punish Modi?" is another example of my peeves with media journalists: they don't understand that voters can simultaneously be disappointed with a party/leader but still view them as their best bet. Yes, India's growth has left behind many people but those people also believe that this growth will eventually reach them under the BJP. Did anyone seriously believe that the INDIA alliance would be better that NDA on this?

The opposition is ing worthless and the INC deserves to die as a party.

Nobody expected to defeat BJP and BJP seems to have been headed for a narrative defeat because they were grandstanding on winning +400. These figures were revised in the last few weeks so much so that 360 is looking very good now.

I think a lot of that was to motivate party workers as saying you will only gain 10 seats isnt as motivating as saying you will gain 50.

Also Modi constantly successfully targeting areas that used to be unwinnable for the BJP is proof that polarization in many ways is a self fulfilling prophecy. Parties start to believe areas are unwinnable themselves so they stop making an effort at appealing to voters in those areas which makes those areas even more unwinnable. The US in the past two decades is a great example of this(with the exception of 2005-2008 when Dean Lead the DNC) and also India in the two decades prior to Modi.

Everyone knew this was going to a BJP victory but it’s all about the narratives. I think the 400 talk was more that peak Modi had not arrived for the political battles of 2024-2029. Claiming 400 seats but falling short would have been a blow. But last week has been somewhat doom and gloom for BJP so anything above 350 is looking good. If they actually deliver 400, the opposition will be completely demoralised.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Axis My India exit poll for UP
NDA 46% (64-67 seats)
INDIA 39% (8-12 seats)
BSP 8%      (0-1)

Which brings us to nationalwide total of
NDA    361-401
INDIA  131-166
OTH       8-20

Total domination by NDA. I'll try to collect state breakdowns for other exit polls when I get the time.

If these numbers hold up than it also shows how much parties not part of the BJP alliance or INC alliance have collapsed in the Modi Era. For decades the result of the Others would determine who took power(1996, 1998, 2004) while now they have been completely decimated.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

www.socialnews.xyz/2024/06/01/a-look-at-13-bellwether-seats-across-7-states-and-how-they-voted-over-the-years/

These bellwether seats are Valsad, Jamnagar, Banaskantha and Anand (in Gujarat), Faridabad, Ambala, Karnala (in Haryana), Jammu, Udhampur (Jammu), Alwar (Rajasthan), Secunderabad (Telangana), Sasaram (Bihar) and Ranchi (Jharkhand).

Do any of these seats vote against NDA?

[eos]

www.socialnews.xyz/2024/06/01/a-look-at-13-bellwether-seats-across-7-states-and-how-they-voted-over-the-years/

These bellwether seats are Valsad, Jamnagar, Banaskantha and Anand (in Gujarat), Faridabad, Ambala, Karnala (in Haryana), Jammu, Udhampur (Jammu), Alwar (Rajasthan), Secunderabad (Telangana), Sasaram (Bihar) and Ranchi (Jharkhand).

Do any of these seats vote against NDA?

These seats are traditionally bipolar contests between INC and BJP. I can see why they end up being “bellwethers”. Sasaram immediately jumps out, that is the former seat of Jagjivan Ram and Meira Kumar, one of the most important SC dominated seats in Bihar and India. If BJP wins, it means religious polarisation has most likely transcended caste divisions and if INC wins BJP strategy has most likely failed in Hindi heartland. I am not intimately aware of all seats, but I suspect they are bellwether for BJP core strategy succeeding or failing. Almost likely some diverse demographic combination of Upper caste, SC, OBc, Muslims.

Just a passing look, it seems Jamnagar in Gujarat includes large number of Ahir (Yadav), SC, Muslim and Upper caste. Relatively competitive even in Modi landslides, these are seats that INC need to win and will win in any competitive election cycles. If there don’t, it means BJP strategy is likely working. Other seats seem to have the same features.

Faridabad near Delhi NCT has a maze of upper and scheduled castes and both major religions and migrants labourers from all across India. Secundarabad, the only seat here from the South, has a suggestive demographic combination of Muslim + Golla (Yadav) caste + other Hindu.  BJP winning or dominating seats like Sasaram, Faridabad, and Secundarabad is bad news for INC across India in a sense. On the other hand, Ranchi is the most diverse part of Jharkand. INC winning would mean bad news for BJP in SC and ST dominated eastern India. The Jammu seats are so obviously religiously charged in the Kashmir context that INC victory here probably means very bad news for BJP across India. And unsurprisingly Alwar in Rajasthan has the combination of Muslims, Upper Caste and SC. INC winning here is probably bad news for BJP across Rajasthan and Hindi areas.

I was going to dismiss the concept of Indian “bellwethers”, but the winning combinations make a lot of sense in an Indian context. Good catch by the article, even if they failed to articulate what is possibly happening here.

[Frodo]

This is a good video of why 2004 hopes are little far fetched. These are the reasons he gives:

1. There is no reasonable study that has shown that lower turnout hurts the BJP. Some studies have shown that sometimes lower turnout could benefit the BJP as well

2. NDA is far stronger in UP/Bihar than it was in 2004. In 2004 the NDA only won 22 seats in both states while in 2019 that number was 101 and they got over a 50% vote share as well

3. Ram Mandir helps among Northern voters where the BJP has a lot of seats

4. There is no equivalent to Sonia Gandhi in 2004 for the opposition and the lack of one major leader gives the BJP the advantage on the issue of "strong stable leadership"

5. The BJP has far more momentum in the south today than it did back in 2004 and far more seats are winnable for them there then there was back then.

Bumping for when we receive the final poll results for the last round of voting that just concluded.  I am curious, by the way, to see if the BJP has received the 40 seats in the south this guy mentioned should be their target.