India 2024 LS and assembly elections

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Apparently the BJP candidate for Allahabad ( not calling it Prayagraj) was a former communist party member.

[Antonio the Sixth]

This is a good video of why 2004 hopes are little far fetched. These are the reasons he gives:

1. There is no reasonable study that has shown that lower turnout hurts the BJP. Some studies have shown that sometimes lower turnout could benefit the BJP as well

2. NDA is far stronger in UP/Bihar than it was in 2004. In 2004 the NDA only won 22 seats in both states while in 2019 that number was 101 and they got over a 50% vote share as well

3. Ram Mandir helps among Northern voters where the BJP has a lot of seats

4. There is no equivalent to Sonia Gandhi in 2004 for the opposition and the lack of one major leader gives the BJP the advantage on the issue of "strong stable leadership"

5. The BJP has far more momentum in the south today than it did back in 2004 and far more seats are winnable for them there then there was back then.

Bumping for when we receive the final poll results for the last round of voting that just concluded.  I am curious, by the way, to see if the BJP has received the 40 seats in the south this guy mentioned should be their target.

That's a really informative overview that frankly puts to shame a lot of Western election coverage, but... is it me or does the background music sound weirdly ominous for what's supposed to be a dispassionate electoral analysis?

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

The Ram Mandir hysteria make me glad I renounced my citizenship; collective self-delusion like this will only end badly.

[Logical]

Axis My India Andhra Assembly exit poll



NDA 98-120 - 51% (+5)
-TDP 78-96 - 42%
-JSP 16-18 - 7%
-BJP 4-6 - 2%

YSRCP 55-77 - 44% (-6)

INC+ 0-2 - 2% (+1)

Odisha Assembly


BJP 62-80 - 42% (+10)

BJD 62-80 - 42% (-3)

INC 5-8 - 12% (-4)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Apparently the BJP candidate for Allahabad ( not calling it Prayagraj) was a former communist party member.

A lot of that about.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Apparently the BJP candidate for Allahabad ( not calling it Prayagraj) was a former communist party member.

A lot of that about.

West Bengal says hi.

[Ancestral Republican]

India's descent into uniparty fascism continues.

[sudenmorsian]

Axis My India Andhra Assembly exit poll

NDA 98-120 - 51% (+5)
-TDP 78-96 - 42%
-JSP 16-18 - 7%
-BJP 4-6 - 2%

YSRCP 55-77 - 44% (-6)
INC+ 0-2 - 2% (+1)

Odisha Assembly

BJP 62-80 - 42% (+10)
BJD 62-80 - 42% (-3)
INC 5-8 - 12% (-4)

Good riddance to YSRCP. I'm no particular fan of the TDP/NDA but the past government had no vision other than enriching their coffers — compare the trajectory of Telangana and Andhra post-bifurcation.

I never expected the BJP/NDA to lose this election, and am totally unsurprised with these exit polls. 2014/2019 rebuilt the political landscape, and the opposition has yet to provide a suitable alternative that would attract voters and challenge the BJP (rather than just running against the BJP). And I say that as someone who greatly dislikes the BJP.

[eos]

Apparently the BJP candidate for Allahabad ( not calling it Prayagraj) was a former communist party member.

A lot of that about.

West Bengal says hi.

Just a bunch of people cosplaying as Marxists, which has a nebulous meaning of “social justice” in India. Btw, BJP is expected to come close to displacing Left as second largest party in Kerela by vote share. Will have to see if that comes true.

The Thiruvanthapuram seat is predicted to be a close contest between Shashi Tharoor and BJP minister Rajeev Chandrashekar. If BJP wins, they will have officially arrived in Kerela.

[eos]

Axis My India Andhra Assembly exit poll

NDA 98-120 - 51% (+5)
-TDP 78-96 - 42%
-JSP 16-18 - 7%
-BJP 4-6 - 2%

YSRCP 55-77 - 44% (-6)
INC+ 0-2 - 2% (+1)

Odisha Assembly

BJP 62-80 - 42% (+10)
BJD 62-80 - 42% (-3)
INC 5-8 - 12% (-4)

Good riddance to YSRCP. I'm no particular fan of the TDP/NDA but the past government had no vision other than enriching their coffers — compare the trajectory of Telangana and Andhra post-bifurcation.

I never expected the BJP/NDA to lose this election, and am totally unsurprised with these exit polls. 2014/2019 rebuilt the political landscape, and the opposition has yet to provide a suitable alternative that would attract voters and challenge the BJP (rather than just running against the BJP). And I say that as someone who greatly dislikes the BJP.

If YSRCP loses, they would have been better off allying with BJP and taking a junior status in parliament for supremacy in state. Their biggest threat is being out of power and people seeing INC as the main alternative to TDP. Same with BJD. YSRCP and BJD being routed, not just losing, would be great for INC.

[Double Carpet]

Hi all, many thanks for the updates.

Does anyone know what time the vote counting starts on 4 June?

Also are there any good TV links (eg on YouTube), ideally in English, to watch the vote count?

What are the best sites for results inc result maps?

Thanks so much

DC

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Hi all, many thanks for the updates.

Does anyone know what time the vote counting starts on 4 June?

Also are there any good TV links (eg on YouTube), ideally in English, to watch the vote count?

What are the best sites for results inc result maps?

Thanks so much

DC

Are you making travel plans?
I would personally check out liveblogs for information on these sorts of minitae.
EDIT: My bad lol, I saw 4 and thought you were talking about the UK election. Apologies.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Hi all, many thanks for the updates.

Does anyone know what time the vote counting starts on 4 June?

Also are there any good TV links (eg on YouTube), ideally in English, to watch the vote count?

What are the best sites for results inc result maps?

Thanks so much

DC

Yeah it will be 10:30 PM ET tonight for us (8 AM India time).

I’d say some English channels to watch the results are NDTV, Republic TV, Times Now with NDTV being the least hackish .

[OSR stands with Israel]

https://twitter.com/ANI/status/1797614907208482982

So seems like I.N.D.I.A is gonna try to claim the election was rigged

[OSR stands with Israel]

Counting has begun(here are some streams)

https://www.youtube.com/live/UjTuhpV-7xU?si=8MbLEq8LNHhcRWj8

https://www.youtube.com/live/J1YT_XdABvo?si=3arNCQQ3pMiZS9Eb

https://www.youtube.com/live/Vrz5kghd8Sk?si=NHVN66O72MycThQL

[OSR stands with Israel]

CNN India has NDA up 157-62-8


https://www.news18.com/elections/analytics-center/?s=IN&t=LS&v=map&

[Logical]

India Today

NDA 140
INDIA 85
OTH 9

Most seats reporting are form Southern states

[OSR stands with Israel]

India Today

NDA 140
INDIA 85
OTH 9

Most seats reporting are form Southern states

CNN News 18 has it at

NDA 251 INDIA 134 Other 16

https://www.news18.com/amp/

[Logical]

India Today

NDA 200
INDIA 113
OTH 9

Gains for NDA in the East and South, losses in the Hindi belt

[eos]

India Today

NDA 140
INDIA 85
OTH 9

Most seats reporting are form Southern states

CNN News 18 has it at

NDA 251 INDIA 134 Other 16

https://www.news18.com/amp/

Very early still but SP is leading in 15 in UP. INDIA really needs SP to pull out a miracle to have any hope.

[Logical]

The good news for INDIA is that under these numbers NDA is on track for 320-340 seats. The bad news is that counting trends usually gets better for the winning party.

[Logical]

India Today

NDA 250
INDIA 153
OTH 14

INDIA putting up a good fight in UP, Maharashtra and Karnataka.

[eos]

India Today

NDA 250
INDIA 153
OTH 14

INDIA putting up a good fight in UP, Maharashtra and Karnataka.

UP is completely unexpected, Maharashtra and Karnataka not so much for me.

[lfromnj]

With these trends if the BJP is more dependent on the south it seems delimitation will be delayed again.

[Logical]

Seeing BJP leading in 3 seats in Kerala is quite something.