Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

In case you have not yet, read this article. It is the ultimate roller coaster ride. Russia has already lost with its best troops, it should pick one target (east Ukraine, Kiev or Odessa), rather than three at once, but Putin runs the show and wants all three to be in the best negotiating position, Russia will be out of gas in two weeks, so it is now or never for them, but Russia can still probably win a war of attrition, and Ukraine is being worn down too,  Putin can mobilize the whole country in his chase for the white whale, and maybe get it, opposition is just in the cities, Putin controls the fake news, and on and on. Maybe you will get less sea sick than I did, on the high seas of Putin's obsessive quest, with no one to tell him enough already. The guy has some credibility in the sense he lists what he does not know, fog of war and all of that. He's a more modest than hubristic expert.

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/03/21/michael-kofman-russia-military-expert-00018906

Oh, the image  looks like a modern children's crusade (and why would the guy on the corner who is most visible and looks like 14 be part of the propaganda message - to win favor with those into child abuse?), but then I read that Putin was like a neutron bomb that had fused Russian orthodox mysticism, hedonism and sadism into a new element, and like all new elements, a highly volatile one.

My main takeaways from the article;

- Russia has used up all of its top forces and will run out of gas soon. Time isn't on the side of Russia, but it'll be worse for Ukraine if the fighting lasts longer than a month.

- This could very well end in a "Russian win". But since they look to accomplish many things at once, their original objective of regime change seems to have been cast aside, they're not prioritizing major cities and they don't seem to have the forces/logistics to conquer Kiev, no one knows what the hell a "Russian win" actually means or looks like anymore.

The only problem with the war of attrition point is I don’t see how Putin can politically pull it off. I know he dominates the news waves in Russia but I don’t see how forced conscription or seizing private business for the war effort when the country is teetering on economic collapse doesn’t see pushback on the home front

Remember it’s not running out of men that loses a war of attrition, it’s running out of material and/or national morale collapsing. It’s very hard to see the later happening, Ukrainians don’t seem like they are going to ever stop fighting and it’s generally been accepted that terror bombing campaigns, which is effectively what Russian seems to be doing, actually harden not break national resolve. As for the former, Russian production capacity isn’t looking great nor are the cash reserves they would need to get foreign equipment, if they could even find a seller.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Seems like Lukashenko has more sense then Putin.

https://twitter.com/MrKovalenko/status/1506466784815288327

 Whoever expected that Lukashenko would play the role, albeit even tentatively and borderline, as an FF in this conflict?

Luka is in a very fragile position at home and the Russian army clearly won’t be able to bail him out this time like they did 2020. He can’t afford send his military away.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Seems like Lukashenko has more sense then Putin.

https://twitter.com/MrKovalenko/status/1506466784815288327

 Whoever expected that Lukashenko would play the role, albeit even tentatively and borderline, as an FF in this conflict?

He isn't stupid.

He knows that if he sent his troops into Ukraine, there would be another coup and he probably won't be able to survive this one.

 Oh I get it. He is still fundamentally a dictatorial POS and abuser of human rights. And i totally agree hes acting in self interest.

But at the same time as that Twitter feed notes he is risking Putin trying to take him out with a coup as well. I understand that he is that he is just balancing the odds as to which to which decision will more likely oust him from power, and if it turns 51% in favor of being ousted by not invading then he'll send the troops in. It's just odd that even through naked self interest and real politic he is making decisions that benefit the Ukraine and liberal democracy..

Here is a 'balancing act' for Alexander Lukashenko -he orders the Belarusian military to invade western Ukraine in accordance with Putin's wishes, and then immediately gets on a plane with his one-way ticket to Moscow to join his Ukrainian counterpart Viktor Yanukovych in exile.  If nothing else, he has a better chance at survival and self-preservation while avoiding accountability than with any other plan.  

Do you think he makes it to the plane though?

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Well, I think it is at least possible that Shoigu suffered a real heart attack after Putin started to run the country against a concrete wall at full speed. But more likely he's under house arrest like a couple of other intelligence and military officials that have been mentioned before.

Shoigu has been a cabinet level equivalent minister since the fall of the Soviet Union, first as the ominously named Minister of Emergency Situations (which is something of a mash-up of the FEMA and the National Guard) and then as Minister of Defense. It’s fair to say no one other than Putin himself has had a bigger hand in shaping the modern Russian military. Also probably as big a behind the scenes political heavy weight as they come.

If he’s been removed it’s a BFD.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

If Shoygu is "unwell" then who is actually in charge of moving this trainwreck? https://twitter.com/ALanoszka/status/1506720788489121801

This is literally out of the Soviet playbook. Kruschev "voluntarily retired" due to "advanced age and ill health", of course.

TBF, when Kruschev was removed totally voluntarily stepped down he did enjoy a pretty comfortable retirement as an irrelevant elder statesman hanging out in a nice dacha in the countryside.

I don’t think the guys being retired now are going to have that to look forward to.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

https://twitter.com/jimsciutto/status/1507805561936486400?s=20&t=mIlJ-4gBwh2...

Who could have guess that an unmistakable material demonstration that every non-NATO neighbor is liable to Russian military action would have prompted Russia’s neighbors to look to NATO?

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Desperate times, desperate measures:

https://twitter.com/CNBC/status/1507369164264161286

This is pathetic. That's all.

As is this factoid:

https://twitter.com/darksecretplace/status/1508253367696433159?s=20&t=MwNnX1...

Western militaries seem to have come to the conclusion that tanks aren’t particularly survivable in peer-peer conflicts (and I think this war is bearing that out) and have slimmed down their MBT corps in favor of IVFs taking over infantry support and lighter vehicles (which is to say humvees or IFVs rigged up with anti-tank missiles and sensory equipment) taking over anti-armor roles.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

I’m confused about the oil tanks thing. It’s pretty clearly a legitimate military target and I guess the Russian position is that Ukraine isn’t allowed to shoot back.

Does Russia not understand the concept of a war?

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

RUB surges to 79 contradicting Biden's prediction that it will turn into “rubble.”  Of course, Russia must be paying a cost for this.  A look later on at Russia's GDP and CPI for 2022 will give us a more clear picture of the total economic damage.  In the meantime, Russia is winning the optical war on RUB.

99% they will default in 30 days. Check in then.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1511722816210616321

No. At worst, they will scrap some reserved planes to keep their active fleet in the air.

If this was a problem, there wouldn’t still be RuAF flights in other threatened (Syria, pointless patrols, etc).

Here's the thing, they are running only about 200 sorties daily. Compare that to the 1,000 per day we ran in desert storm and IIRC 1,500 in Iraq 2 electric boogaloo.
They have theoretically huge advantage in available combat aircraft in the theater, but they can't secure uncontested air superiority or proper SEAD and they are running a comparatively small number of flights relative to other modern militaries in major operations.
Based on this, I think they are stretched to the limit in terms of capacity to actually use warplanes, simply based on the fact that if they could ramp up flights they would have by now.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

It's been almost two weeks since the last KIA of a Russian general. Back in early March, Russia was losing a general every three or four days.

I wonder what changes were made since then. Part of me was even thinking that Putin was intentionally sending generals into harm's way for coup-proofing.

Not as many huge columns stuck on the road?

I'm guessing (with little evidence, just intuition) that a good number of those generals were divisional ops chiefs that had to go up front and look very important trying to get things moving again. Which, you know, is generally bad for one's health assume that there are armed people upfront trying to kill you.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Speaking of which... new polling numbers from Germany (Forschungsgruppe Wahlen for ZDF, released today) are available.


Opinion on further intensifying sanctions on Russia
Support 77%
Oppose 18%
Don't know 5%

Opinion on stopping oil and gas imports from Russia
Immediately, even if it leads to shortages 28%
Only when the energy supply is secured 54%
No embargo at all 14%

Is the German government doing enough to make the country independent of of Russian oil and gas?
Yes 37%
No 52%
Don't know 11%

Opinion on temporary speed limit on highways to reduce fuel consumption
Support 25%
Support a permanent speed limit 50%
Oppose 24%

Increasing costs and prices are is in many areas a big problem for the wealth in Germany
Yes 73%
No 26%

It is a problem for me personally
Yes 34%
No 65%

The aid Ukraine is receiving from Germany is...
Appropriate 50%
Too little 37%
Too much 7%
Don't know 6%

Can Germany handle the many refugees from Ukraine?
Yes 84%
No 12%

So this isn’t unique to Germany, but 82% ban Russian gas imports, 72% but not if it affects my life in any way makes me want to tear my hair out.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Huge Russian convoy near Kharkiv

The images show a 13-kilometer-long military convoy moving south through the town of Velykyi Burluk in eastern Ukraine on April 8.

Maxar reported that the convoy consists of "armored vehicles, trucks with towed artillery and support equipment."

Major General Kyrylo Budanov, head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ukrainian Defense Ministry, said that Russian forces were regrouping in eastern Ukraine and planning to advance to Kharkiv.

CNN:

Well I can’t think of any time in the last month or so a giant convoy slowing moving down a highway has blown up in the Russian army’s face.

Thank god all those reports of Russia learning from it’s mistake appear to be untrue.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Best things most allies of Ukraine did was banning RT on Day 1....

Imagine if American and English Citizens were allowed to listen to NAZI and Italian Fascist Propaganda during WW II?

Well such propaganda certainly did exist and some in Allied countries listened to it, even though that was against the law. Lord Haw-Haw ring any bells?

And we have Lord Tuck-Tuck. But we did shut down the actual state run Russian entities and now it's down to those looking make a profit off hot takes and agents paid under the table.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61044063

Ukraine: Inside the spies’ attempts to stop the war

A free BBC article about the efforts of the American-Anglo intelligence community and how the information was publicly utilized to try and stop the war or at the very least least prevent false flag operations by Russia being viewed as plausible. 

The gist is that the A-A community had lost credibility over Iraq so they were still being viewed skeptically by many European countries, however, their public accuracy made it easier to rally European sentiment for Ukraine.

George Bush Jr's decision to randomly invade a country and blame 'intelligence failures' for his manufactured pretext will haunt us for a generation.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61044063

Ukraine: Inside the spies’ attempts to stop the war

A free BBC article about the efforts of the American-Anglo intelligence community and how the information was publicly utilized to try and stop the war or at the very least least prevent false flag operations by Russia being viewed as plausible.  

The gist is that the A-A community had lost credibility over Iraq so they were still being viewed skeptically by many European countries, however, their public accuracy made it easier to rally European sentiment for Ukraine.

George Bush Jr's decision to randomly invade a country and blame 'intelligence failures' for his manufactured pretext will haunt us for a generation.

Stop comparing our invasion to the Russian one . Suddam Hussain was actually an evil dictator and did have WMD’s at one point even if he didn’t in 2003

I'm not.

I'm pointing out that Bush effed over the American intelligence community to do it. The line was 'intelligence failure', over and over again. The rest of the world assumed that the CIA and MI6 were complicit and/or incompetent.

So when they for instance said 'Hey Russia is obviously planning an invasion', France, Germany, ect. didn't listen. Because Bush shredded our reputation to cover his ass.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

https://twitter.com/DanLamothe/status/1514649835814760454

Just a quick thread from a WaPo reporter briefed by a Defense Official:

US Intelligence believes Moskova’s on fire and being towed to Sevastopol. A ship that’s been burning for a day plus is unlike to be salvageable but not technically sunk.
US Army’s European Command is prepping to train Ukrainians on new weapons systems.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Curious case of the Anti-Ship Mines which have been floating around the Black Sea update...

Naturally reasons to be skeptical on sourcing here, but thus far Ukrainian Information has generally proven to be much more accurate than Russian Information overall when it comes to regarding the War in Ukraine.

Naval mines discovered in Turkish waters in recent weeks are Soviet-era ordnance that had been stored in Crimea, under Russian control since 2014, and may have been deliberately left near Turkey’s coastline by Russian vessels to discourage commercial shipping, a Ukrainian official said Friday.

The appearance of floating mines in the southwest Black Sea set off alarm bells in Turkey, Romania and Bulgaria, drove up the costs of insuring cargo ships and stymied local fishermen. Since late March, Turkey’s military has defused at least three mines discovered in its territorial waters, including one in the busy Bosporus Strait, which bisects the country’s biggest city of Istanbul. Romania has also neutralized a stray mine.

The U.S. Embassy in Ankara on Friday warned that “an undetermined number of drifting mines in the western Black Sea … pose a hazard to commercial and passenger vessels” and urged American citizens to reconsider traveling by ship in the area.

Russia has accused Ukraine of laying the mines and alleged that hundreds of them broke free during bad weather in March. Ukraine has denied the Russian assertion. Turkey’s defense minister has said the mines’ origins have not been determined.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/04/15/russia-ukraine-war-news-putin-live-updates/#link-B2OGJKFU4JA5VFBDZWYIA5C53I

Russia loves it’s false flags. I would bet it’s them and blaming the Ukrainians was the plan/goal here.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

It definitely looks under tow to me.
https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1515821878732111880?s=20&t=bU3GC6AsFWc...
https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1515823256040873998?s=20&t=WPE6I5rdyK-...

To be fair, a sh**tstorm is a kind of storm.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Are the separatists just throwing dudes out there without any training?

Yes
They are literally constricting troops at traffic stops. The separatists republics are the equivalent of those dudes that occupied the Oregon wildlife refuge, a bunch of Russian mercenaries, and whoever they can forcibly recruit to be human shields.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Interesting how China is significantly less unbalanced than Russia.

It’s fun that Compucomp is actually in the minority among Chinese people living in China, much less expats.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Chad Vitaliy Kim vs. Virgin Vladimir Putin

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1517777769970683904?s=20&t=cMORxu...

So, just eye-balling pictures and behavior, it’s pretty consistent with ‘has arthritis, is on an aggressive steroid treatment’. So, no, unfortunately, Putin is probably not dying faster than any 70 year old man is dying.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

https://mobile.twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1517918177887498244
👀

Mobilisation is probably a smaller political risk than abandoning the war after the Donbas offensive, if Putin thinks he can win the whole of Ukraine with mobilisation.

The easiest thing politically would be to do neither. I full expect Putin to just keep declaring everything is going to plan even after all his forces are spent.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/eu-says-gas-payments-may-be-possible-under-russian-roubles-proposal-without-2022-04-22/

"EU sees way to pay for Russian gas without breaching sanctions"

It seems EU ok's Russia compromise of EU companies paying USD or EUR for Russian gas and Gazprombank immediately converting it to RUB.  This entire affair is a battle of technicalities.  In the end, the fact remains that Russia will continue to export gas and get paid for it while giving Putin some face-saving "victory".  In the meantime RUb surges to 76 which is early Jan 2022 levels.

Europe accepting to pay for Russian gas in roubles? Boris Johnson saying Russia could win the war? German intellectuals writing open letters suggesting Ukraine should surrender? But I thought Europe was united for Ukraine? lol

And people who called out the European hypocrisy (from both sides, from the ones asking them to do more to help and the people against the sanctions on Russia) were criticized for pointing the elephant on the room.

The economy vs national security debate is the key to understand the start of this new global order. Easy to push for intense structural de-globalization in rhetoric only but not really do it when you know you’re among the places which most rely on the economic benefits of said globalization and would be among the more affected places if a reversal trend were to start.

That explains the positions of places like Germany who want the war to end for a quick return for business as usual logic, one friendly to their wallets. That’s not going to happen and they will eventually have to be honest about what they care more about: Globalization or Ukraine.

Do you have anything to contribute to this thread beyond preening concern-trolling about muh European hypocrisy and argumentum ad populum fallacies to justify your country's disgusting "neutral" stance toward Russia's genocide? This is getting pathetic.

Have you anything to contribute to this thread beyond hectoring people for not having an opinion in line with your own?

Brazil, and Brazilians, have sovereignty, and clearly prize that. And there are concerns that are at play from a Brazilian POV, that should not be completely shoffed at.

And it's also true that what's being done re: sanctions are in fact deglobalizing the world. They make sense as a short-term tool to weaken Russia's hand, but they come at a terrible strategic cost in the long term if they continue indefinitely. If Russia gets used to sanctions (to some extent, they already are), then our bargaining chips will only diminish and our leverage over them will only weaken.

SWIFT, like many other things, can be regarded as an international institution on which we all rely; cutting Russia from it is not without downsides, as it only encourages the creation of autarkic spheres that rely on themselves, not on international institutions that we, in fact, have the strongest influence over. We could be harming the very international world order we are trying to save. It might be an impossible choice to avoid, but it's still a choice we are making.

And history tells us that the integration of economies, as we see in the modern age, does tend to result in higher standards of living on average. These higher standards of living, in fact, are important if we want a Europe that can afford to flex its muscles. More tax dollars from commerce means more money that can be spent on defense, in fact, implicitly, more money that can be spent defending against Russia should worse come to worse.

This war is about more than just Ukraine, and his conclusion is far from wrong in the gist of it. The de-globalization that is being promoted, indirectly, is not going to just harm Russia, it will hurt Europe too. Severing Russia from Europe in the commercial sphere is good for America, but it's probably not good for Europe. Fortunately, I doubt European leaders will let it go that far.

Many people still don’t realize times have changed and get shocked when they learn people in the global south are rational human beings with independent self-interests. Too much time believing they’re the only center of the world, so the existence and of an independent “other” angers because it sounds threatening.

The de-globalization trend clearly didn’t start because of Russia, but because of Chinese growth that wasn’t expected by US. They’ve been increasingly throwing in the trash the post-cold war liberal ideological stance in favor of a more nationalistic approach. The Russian war has only been good excuse to accelerate this process on their part.

I agree with the poster who responded when they said they likely expect a “controlled globalization” where they’re in the center but that’s not possible anymore in these days, unless they directly undermine the growth of countries they see as a threat/competition. South-South ties have expanded a lot thanks to the globalization of past decades and that’s not something that can be simply “reversed” as the US expects.

Even if this war has positive effect of pushing Europe closer to them in certain levels like they want, Europe is the continent most dependable of the goods of globalization and that’s why they’re are more resistant to accept this reversal. Europe would be more prejudiced than US and also more closed countries which have embraced less globalization over the years. People buying the warhawk trash propaganda attack Germany so easily but there’s a reason for their response to be more cautious.

For global south specifically, even if some places are more adaptable to de-globalization effects (although everyone would suffer consequences), the important thing right now is to not compromise against globalization and multilateralism. That is the best way of showing globalization cannot be reversed or controlled by few countries according to whatever their self-interest of the moment is.

Explain to me how the invasion and annexation of a neutral country by an imperialist European power is in the rational self interest of the global south?

Because basically your argument amounts to ‘America is bad, therefore  Ukraine’

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

RE: Moldova
I thought Russia troops and left to support the Ukraine invasion and the only people left in the occupation zone (sorry, independent republic) are the local separatists.

And obviously they can’t move in or supply troops, what with all of Ukraine in the way.

What could they possibly be thinking on this one?