Who would win this hypothetical election? What would the map look like?

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Candidate A gets absolutely crushed. You’re basically describing an extremist Republican who happens to be pro-choice and is explicitly trying not to get religious right support, effectively running on the least popular parts of the GOP platform and being coo-coo banana’s extreme about it

Allot of the negatives of B just aren’t going to come up on a federal level. The only big one is being pro-life, which actually might be a huge net plus because single issue anti-abortion voters are probably a larger block than pro-choice people willing to throw in with Birchers over it. But mostly, you’re going to see strong third party bids and that’s super bad for A. Because B is going to clean up with minorities in red states while I don’t think A has any natural base of support in any Blue state, they are going to be split between B and liberal minor candidates.

I do think your suspicion that people’s voting patterns don’t change all that much, but the thing is that allot of safely R states do have comparatively large democratic minorities (especially true in the South), while there just isn’t much of a comparative Republican base to build from in the important blue states, so the comparatively minor amount of party switchers/stay at home/protest votes favor B substantially. B gets the entire South, A maybe gets NH and ME. It’s just not close to an even trade.

That said, the one place I do see things turned on their head is WV and KY, where both unions and churches are strong and where Democrats basically ran the place within living memory.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

I’m thinking something like this