Who would win this hypothetical election? What would the map look like?

[John Dule]

I was mulling over this question ever since I imagined a hypothetical election between myself and Battista Minola. The big question is who would America rather vote for: A capitalist atheist or a socialist Christian? Who would win this election? Also, who would you vote for personally?

Candidate A: Capitalist Atheist
- Open about being an atheist. Does not attend church and does not participate in religious rituals. Has stated that he intends to be sworn into office on a copy of the Constitution, not the Bible.
- Against single-payer health care and supports slimming down the welfare state
- Pro-choice
- Major campaign plank is to cut taxes across the board, but especially for poor Americans; supports a negative income tax
- Center-left on various culture war issues but mocks "identity politics"
- Pro-2nd Amendment and 1st Amendment
- Wants to abolish the federal minimum wage
- Against teaching creationism in schools; supports gay marriage

Candidate B: Socialist Christian
- Evangelical; argues fervently that the teachings of Jesus support left-wing economic policies. Attends church regularly and can quote the Bible chapter and verse.
- Supports a single-payer socialized health care system, as well as either abolishing or diminishing student loan debt
- Pro-life, with exceptions only for rape and incest. Wants to repeal Roe.
- Openly admits that his policies will raise taxes, but stresses that this will affect only top income brackets. Lower brackets will see a net gain due to elimination of insurance premiums.
- Progressive on certain issues such as BLM, but prefers to deflect with "We are all equal under God" when asked about more hardcore equality issues
- Supports restrictions on gun ownership and "hate speech"
- Wants a $15 minimum wage
- Supports teaching creationism and has expressed some tacit support for conversion therapy



Now, here's why I was thinking about this: My suspicion is that the resulting map from a wacky election like this might not be as different as you might expect. I'm increasingly starting to think that people in this country take their policy cues and political beliefs from people within their demographic group. If the pro-choice, pro-weed, pro-LGBT coalition is told by a fellow member of their demographic that capitalism is awesome, they'd listen. Similarly, if evangelicals were told that socialism is what Jesus wanted, they'd listen too. A lot of this country's economic preferences depend on the messenger and context, and I'm curious to see if you guys agree.

[bagelman]

I think the Christian would win because the silent majority of the country is socially conservative and fiscally center-left. It would be close either way though, as young whites would probably be more for the other side. The Hispanic vote would strongly swing towards the Christian candidate. College counties would swing the other way.

As for me, if I'm doing well enough financially I would find it easier to vote for the atheist candidate out of gay self preservation.

[Kuumo]

The capitalist atheist’s base would be in the Northwest and Upper New England while the socialist Christian’s base would be in the South. The socialist Christian probably wins narrowly since most Americans are religious and non-affluent. The map would look something like this.



I would support the capitalist atheist for President but vote for socialist Christians downballot to keep him in check.

[John Dule]

The capitalist atheist’s base would be in the Northwest and Upper New England while the socialist Christian’s base would be in the South. The socialist Christian probably wins narrowly since most Americans are religious and non-affluent. The map would look something like this.



I would support the capitalist atheist for President but vote for socialist Christians downballot to keep him in check.

This is almost exactly the map I was imagining. I would only flip Hawaii, Virginia, RI and Illinois.

[thumb21]

I agree with the idea that politics and voting patterns usually have a lot to do with demographics and membership/involvement with institutions that tend to side with one side over the other and therefore in a situation where churches are closer to a left wing party and that left wing party uses a lot of religious themes and rhetoric, that a lot more religious people would vote with the left, with an opposite reaction of secular voters put off by social conservatism.

However, I'm not sure how well a catch-all religious party would really work in the US, religious groups are diverse and also often divided by race, ethnicity ect. There are a lot of Conservative voters who are religious but would ultimately prioritize taxes and guns over their views on abortion.



I kept the current coalitions more intact for my map, I assumed since the Christian Socialist this is based on is Battista Minola, that this party would do best with Catholics, although a smaller number of other religious people also swing left, turning Utah, Mississippi and Louisiana and other states into swing states.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Oh, I had not seen this.

I didn't even know that the controversy about creationism in schools was a thing anymore and I think the reference is quite out of character, but maybe I don't know enough Evangelicals. The rest seems solid I guess.

I would vote for the Socialist Christian of course (although the one outlined in the OP less enthusiastically than others) and I think they would narrowly win. I agree about people taking many political cues from other people in their in-group.

I kept the current coalitions more intact for my map, I assumed since the Christian Socialist this is based on is Battista Minola, that this party would do best with Catholics, although a smaller number of other religious people also swing left, turning Utah, Mississippi and Louisiana and other states into swing states.

Well yeah, but the person outlined in the OP is an Evangelical (which Dule may have done on purpose to make it clear that the hypothetical was abstracted from just myself, or just because he hates Evangelical Protestantism more).

[Alcibiades]

I do think that socialism is more toxic than atheism to most of the electorate, so I think that the capitalist atheist (for whom I would begrudgingly vote; I’d switch to the socialist Christian if they dropped creationism in schools and conversion therapy) would win a pretty convincing victory. If the Christian dropped the word ‘socialism’ it would be a lot closer. The atheist would dominate the educated suburbs and among well-off coastal liberals, the Christian would win most non-white groups and the Rust Belt, and the wokesters would be a toss-up. Whom the MAGA types would vote for would depend on whom the right-wing media bubble got behind.

[John Dule]

Oh, I had not seen this.

I didn't even know that the controversy about creationism in schools was a thing anymore and I think the reference is quite out of character, but maybe I don't know enough Evangelicals. The rest seems solid I guess.

I would vote for the Socialist Christian of course (although the one outlined in the OP less enthusiastically than others) and I think they would narrowly win. I agree about people taking many political cues from other people in their in-group.

I kept the current coalitions more intact for my map, I assumed since the Christian Socialist this is based on is Battista Minola, that this party would do best with Catholics, although a smaller number of other religious people also swing left, turning Utah, Mississippi and Louisiana and other states into swing states.

Well yeah, but the person outlined in the OP is an Evangelical (which Dule may have done on purpose to make it clear that the hypothetical was abstracted from just myself, or just because he hates Evangelical Protestantism more).

I figured that these days an Evangelical is far more likely to run an explicitly religious campaign than a Catholic anyway.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Oh, I had not seen this.

I didn't even know that the controversy about creationism in schools was a thing anymore and I think the reference is quite out of character, but maybe I don't know enough Evangelicals. The rest seems solid I guess.

I would vote for the Socialist Christian of course (although the one outlined in the OP less enthusiastically than others) and I think they would narrowly win. I agree about people taking many political cues from other people in their in-group.

I kept the current coalitions more intact for my map, I assumed since the Christian Socialist this is based on is Battista Minola, that this party would do best with Catholics, although a smaller number of other religious people also swing left, turning Utah, Mississippi and Louisiana and other states into swing states.

Well yeah, but the person outlined in the OP is an Evangelical (which Dule may have done on purpose to make it clear that the hypothetical was abstracted from just myself, or just because he hates Evangelical Protestantism more).

I figured that these days an Evangelical is far more likely to run an explicitly religious campaign than a Catholic anyway.

That's probably true, but such a campaign is also far more likely to be economically leftist if coming from a Catholic than from an Evangelical in my opinion.

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

Oh, I had not seen this.

I didn't even know that the controversy about creationism in schools was a thing anymore and I think the reference is quite out of character, but maybe I don't know enough Evangelicals. The rest seems solid I guess.

I would vote for the Socialist Christian of course (although the one outlined in the OP less enthusiastically than others) and I think they would narrowly win. I agree about people taking many political cues from other people in their in-group.

I kept the current coalitions more intact for my map, I assumed since the Christian Socialist this is based on is Battista Minola, that this party would do best with Catholics, although a smaller number of other religious people also swing left, turning Utah, Mississippi and Louisiana and other states into swing states.

Well yeah, but the person outlined in the OP is an Evangelical (which Dule may have done on purpose to make it clear that the hypothetical was abstracted from just myself, or just because he hates Evangelical Protestantism more).

I figured that these days an Evangelical is far more likely to run an explicitly religious campaign than a Catholic anyway.

That's probably true, but such a campaign is also far more likely to be economically leftist if coming from a Catholic than from an Evangelical in my opinion.

A campaign like this might make some sense with a non-white Evangelical candidate.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Oh, I had not seen this.

I didn't even know that the controversy about creationism in schools was a thing anymore and I think the reference is quite out of character, but maybe I don't know enough Evangelicals. The rest seems solid I guess.

I would vote for the Socialist Christian of course (although the one outlined in the OP less enthusiastically than others) and I think they would narrowly win. I agree about people taking many political cues from other people in their in-group.

I kept the current coalitions more intact for my map, I assumed since the Christian Socialist this is based on is Battista Minola, that this party would do best with Catholics, although a smaller number of other religious people also swing left, turning Utah, Mississippi and Louisiana and other states into swing states.

Well yeah, but the person outlined in the OP is an Evangelical (which Dule may have done on purpose to make it clear that the hypothetical was abstracted from just myself, or just because he hates Evangelical Protestantism more).

I figured that these days an Evangelical is far more likely to run an explicitly religious campaign than a Catholic anyway.

That's probably true, but such a campaign is also far more likely to be economically leftist if coming from a Catholic than from an Evangelical in my opinion.

A campaign like this might make some sense with a non-white Evangelical candidate.

Right. A Black pastor maybe?

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

Oh, I had not seen this.

I didn't even know that the controversy about creationism in schools was a thing anymore and I think the reference is quite out of character, but maybe I don't know enough Evangelicals. The rest seems solid I guess.

I would vote for the Socialist Christian of course (although the one outlined in the OP less enthusiastically than others) and I think they would narrowly win. I agree about people taking many political cues from other people in their in-group.

I kept the current coalitions more intact for my map, I assumed since the Christian Socialist this is based on is Battista Minola, that this party would do best with Catholics, although a smaller number of other religious people also swing left, turning Utah, Mississippi and Louisiana and other states into swing states.

Well yeah, but the person outlined in the OP is an Evangelical (which Dule may have done on purpose to make it clear that the hypothetical was abstracted from just myself, or just because he hates Evangelical Protestantism more).

I figured that these days an Evangelical is far more likely to run an explicitly religious campaign than a Catholic anyway.

That's probably true, but such a campaign is also far more likely to be economically leftist if coming from a Catholic than from an Evangelical in my opinion.

A campaign like this might make some sense with a non-white Evangelical candidate.

Right. A Black pastor maybe?

Talbert Swan is a Western Mass-based black Pentecostal bishop who is ultra-woke on race relations and the economy and deplorable-adjacent on muh social issues. He's semi-well known in Catholic circles for being one of the first pro-life figures of consequence to call out Abby Johnson for being a racist scumbag. He's contemplated running for office in the past and is exactly who I was thinking of.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Oh, I had not seen this.

I didn't even know that the controversy about creationism in schools was a thing anymore and I think the reference is quite out of character, but maybe I don't know enough Evangelicals. The rest seems solid I guess.

I would vote for the Socialist Christian of course (although the one outlined in the OP less enthusiastically than others) and I think they would narrowly win. I agree about people taking many political cues from other people in their in-group.

I kept the current coalitions more intact for my map, I assumed since the Christian Socialist this is based on is Battista Minola, that this party would do best with Catholics, although a smaller number of other religious people also swing left, turning Utah, Mississippi and Louisiana and other states into swing states.

Well yeah, but the person outlined in the OP is an Evangelical (which Dule may have done on purpose to make it clear that the hypothetical was abstracted from just myself, or just because he hates Evangelical Protestantism more).

I figured that these days an Evangelical is far more likely to run an explicitly religious campaign than a Catholic anyway.

That's probably true, but such a campaign is also far more likely to be economically leftist if coming from a Catholic than from an Evangelical in my opinion.

A campaign like this might make some sense with a non-white Evangelical candidate.

Right. A Black pastor maybe?

Talbert Swan is a Western Mass-based black Pentecostal bishop who is ultra-woke on race relations and the economy and deplorable-adjacent on muh social issues. He's semi-well known in Catholic circles for being one of the first pro-life figures of consequence to call out Abby Johnson for being a racist scumbag. He's contemplated running for office in the past and is exactly who I was thinking of.

Interesting person. What kind of offices has he contemplated running for?

Also ughhh I didn't want to get reminded of the existence of Abby Johnson.

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

Oh, I had not seen this.

I didn't even know that the controversy about creationism in schools was a thing anymore and I think the reference is quite out of character, but maybe I don't know enough Evangelicals. The rest seems solid I guess.

I would vote for the Socialist Christian of course (although the one outlined in the OP less enthusiastically than others) and I think they would narrowly win. I agree about people taking many political cues from other people in their in-group.

I kept the current coalitions more intact for my map, I assumed since the Christian Socialist this is based on is Battista Minola, that this party would do best with Catholics, although a smaller number of other religious people also swing left, turning Utah, Mississippi and Louisiana and other states into swing states.

Well yeah, but the person outlined in the OP is an Evangelical (which Dule may have done on purpose to make it clear that the hypothetical was abstracted from just myself, or just because he hates Evangelical Protestantism more).

I figured that these days an Evangelical is far more likely to run an explicitly religious campaign than a Catholic anyway.

That's probably true, but such a campaign is also far more likely to be economically leftist if coming from a Catholic than from an Evangelical in my opinion.

A campaign like this might make some sense with a non-white Evangelical candidate.

Right. A Black pastor maybe?

Talbert Swan is a Western Mass-based black Pentecostal bishop who is ultra-woke on race relations and the economy and deplorable-adjacent on muh social issues. He's semi-well known in Catholic circles for being one of the first pro-life figures of consequence to call out Abby Johnson for being a racist scumbag. He's contemplated running for office in the past and is exactly who I was thinking of.

Interesting person. What kind of offices has he contemplated running for?

iirc he considered putting himself forward as the sacrificial lamb against Baker in 2018. I feel like he might also have flirted with some local runs in Springfield but if so then I don't remember the details because I don't follow Hampden County politics.

There's probably a universe where he fluked into office as Governor in 2018 thanks to a Roy Moore-tier scandal hitting Baker and actually became a national figure, but not a particularly nearby universe.

[Santander]

Candidate A is too soft, but still the only sane choice.

[Dr. MB]

Sounds like an awful election but the sorta right-libertarian policies of candidate A just aren't at all very popular. Not sure who I'd vote for. Pluses for candidate A are not being an authoritarian weirdo but also I'd rather not vote for someone who wants to gut the welfare state. Mostly fine with B if you take out the conversion therapy and anti-free speech planks but knowing that's where their priorities lie makes me pretty suspicious about massive infringements on rights if they take office. Not a fun choice.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Candidate A gets absolutely crushed. You’re basically describing an extremist Republican who happens to be pro-choice and is explicitly trying not to get religious right support, effectively running on the least popular parts of the GOP platform and being coo-coo banana’s extreme about it

Allot of the negatives of B just aren’t going to come up on a federal level. The only big one is being pro-life, which actually might be a huge net plus because single issue anti-abortion voters are probably a larger block than pro-choice people willing to throw in with Birchers over it. But mostly, you’re going to see strong third party bids and that’s super bad for A. Because B is going to clean up with minorities in red states while I don’t think A has any natural base of support in any Blue state, they are going to be split between B and liberal minor candidates.

I do think your suspicion that people’s voting patterns don’t change all that much, but the thing is that allot of safely R states do have comparatively large democratic minorities (especially true in the South), while there just isn’t much of a comparative Republican base to build from in the important blue states, so the comparatively minor amount of party switchers/stay at home/protest votes favor B substantially. B gets the entire South, A maybe gets NH and ME. It’s just not close to an even trade.

That said, the one place I do see things turned on their head is WV and KY, where both unions and churches are strong and where Democrats basically ran the place within living memory.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

I’m thinking something like this

[7,052,770]

500-EV landslide for the Christian. So many people would never vote for an atheist, and a lot of liberals who would still aren't going to like his platform.