2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Angasboy15]

When is the big Milwaukee absentee drop happening? This would go a long way to calming my nerves.

[Angasboy15]

The Wisconsin mail drop is the moment of truth for Biden's reelection chances IMO. If it looks bad there it bodes terribly for Pennslyvania.

I'm optimistic. Extrapolating the Milwaukee vote share, Biden should cut the margin by at least 80000, and that's not even accounting for the fact many (most?) of these are absentee.

[Angasboy15]

When is the big Milwaukee absentee drop happening? This would go a long way to calming my nerves.

Around 5:00 AM, maybe a bit earlier.

Thanks.

[Angasboy15]

The Wisconsin mail drop is the moment of truth for Biden's reelection chances IMO. If it looks bad there it bodes terribly for Pennslyvania.

I'm optimistic. Extrapolating the Milwaukee vote share, Biden should cut the margin by at least 80000, and that's not even accounting for the fact many (most?) of these are absentee.

Still leaves Trump with a 20,000+ margin.

But I'm saying that's just Milwaukee and the absentees should break even more favourably for Biden.

[Angasboy15]

whyy.org/ articles/poll-shows-fewer-than-one-third-of-pennsylvania-republican-voters-will-trust-mail-in-ballot-results/

If the true numbers are in this ballpark, Biden has every chance of winning Pennsylvania. The dooming from (Australians??) at the minute is quite unfounded.

[Angasboy15]

WI - Biden down by 118,000 (83% counted)

Of the remaining 639,000 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win 379,000 of them. (59.2%)

MI - Biden down by 308,422 (72% counted)

Of the remaining 1,563,000 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win 936,000 of them. (59.9%)

GA - Biden down by 102,134 (92% counted)

Of the remaining 406,000 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win 254,000 of them. (62.6%)

Biden needs to win 2 of the above 3 scenarios to win.

Have called PA for Trump and NV for Biden.

Sounds like the kind of vote shares Biden would be projected to get.

[Angasboy15]

Within 30 minutes for the Milwaukee drop.

HERE WE GO

I can't watch.

[Angasboy15]

MKE still has over 20% of votes left! I think that this is it. Biden flips WI.

I had the impression all MKE was getting uploaded at once, but it says like you say on CNN? Can you confirm this?

EDIT: Maybe in person MKE, which would still favor Biden quite comfortably.

[Angasboy15]

We had an issue with the printer on one of our machines too...I was stuck at the precinct for an extra hour because I had to sign *one* receipt that wouldn’t print.

America’s election infrastructure remains terrible.

Why are absentee ballots being the last to be counted despite being the first to be received?

It looks incredibly suspicious that votes are suddenly materializing but only once they already knew what Trumps lead was from the people who turned up in person to vote.

Republicans.

[Angasboy15]

Would be nice to get a definitive answer about what vote is to come in for Clark county.

[Angasboy15]

How certain are we Biden has a winning lead in WI?

It seems like absolute best case scenario for Trump is that he cuts the lead by 5000 in Kenosha. (Assuming absentee votes like in person, which it won't.)

What does that leave?

[Angasboy15]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1324164360017686528

This is concerning.

I read it as basically quashing the hopes of a Trump win in AZ?

[Angasboy15]

PredictIt and betting markets in general have been so hilariously bullish on Trump.

[Angasboy15]

https://twitter.com/SunshineSt8Sam/status/1324256679312216064

Old news and probably not an accurate take.

[Angasboy15]

GA margin down to 18,000 now.

It’s simply not happening.

Trumps final margin might be under 10k but he’s not losing that state for the simple fact there is hardly any vote left to overcome such a margin

I think it's entirely feasible.

[Angasboy15]

Hmmm could be trouble in Arizona?

[Angasboy15]

Hmmm could be trouble in Arizona?

What is with Dem bedwetters on this site?

I think I've been highly optimistic basically everywhere since the polls closed but the figures in Arizona surely mean Biden taking the state is no certainty.

[Angasboy15]

Hmmm could be trouble in Arizona?

What is with Dem bedwetters on this site?

I think I've been highly optimistic basically everywhere since the polls closed but the figures in Arizona surely mean Biden taking the state is no certainty.

Biden will win Arizona.

I'm yet to see a convincing argument for why the Maricopa ballots still out won't continue trending Trump. Do we know these are not later arriving ballots (Monday, Tuesday) which so far have Trump on track?

[Angasboy15]

Hmmm could be trouble in Arizona?

What is with Dem bedwetters on this site?

I think I've been highly optimistic basically everywhere since the polls closed but the figures in Arizona surely mean Biden taking the state is no certainty.

Biden will win Arizona.

I'm yet to see a convincing argument for why the Maricopa ballots still out won't continue trending Trump. Do we know these are not later arriving ballots (Monday, Tuesday) which so far have Trump on track?

Maricopa is a very big county and there are blue areas like the city of Phoenix and Tempe and red areas like the suburbs around them. The question is whether the first batch we saw last night came from a red area, and thus subsequent batches could be more favorable for Biden, or whether that batch was a representative sample of all remaining ballots of Maricopa.

So sure, I think there's some pretty good arguments Biden is safe. But AP/Fox call was wrong. Far from over.

[Angasboy15]

Is the 9k purely military? Or 9k military and expats. Because there's a BIG difference.

[Angasboy15]

Maricopa drop in 13 minutes.

[Angasboy15]

https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/1324532529811083264

That's pretty catastrophic for Trump. Pretty much the ballgame if people are right about the next drops being less favourable.

[Angasboy15]

Big legal fight coming folks. AZ is likely to go to Trump.

Trump has got a second term. His supporters should be thanking Amy Coney Barrett, Samuel Alito, Clarence Thomas, Neil Gorsuch, and Brett Kavanaugh.

I agree he will win in SCOTUS.

I think that the Supreme Court is going to throw out all the mail in ballots that were cast due to “national security” and “law and order” reasons if I had to guess.

No they won't. America's democratic instinct is being challenged but not to that extent.

[Angasboy15]

Cuomo can't count. Has said GA is <1000 twice in the last half hour.

[Angasboy15]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1324613181466173440