2020 Absentee/Early Voting megathread 2

[charcuterie]

Some good news about Pennsylvania. Late last night there was some fear that tons of counties in PA weren't going to start counting mail in ballots until Wednesday. As of right now they are a minority and the lean to the left. The vast majority of populated areas will start counting mail ballots on Election Day, most of them starting at 7:00 AM.

This really is wonderful news   I'm cautiously optimistic that the anticipated "red mirage" will only last into sometime Wednesday and that Michigan and Pennsylvania can be called within 24-48 hours (based on what I've read from NYT about Minnesota and Wisconsin, I am expected election night or Wednesday calls there).

[charcuterie]

Given that, you could even end up with a "blue mirage" if places like the SE counties finish counting absentees by the close of polls and report them first.

But with such a large amount of absentee ballots in these places, would that really happen as quickly as closing? Is there anyone with insights into how long it would take for these huge blue counties to process these votes?

[charcuterie]

Not gonna lie, the number of unreturned ballots in states like PA, WI, and FL is unsettling.

The number of unreturned ballots nationally is unsettling. How many more of these can really come in before election day?

[charcuterie]

According to the Travis County's live early voting location wait times map, there are 6 voting locations with 21-51 minute waits, and 5 with >51 minute waits. It seems a lot of folks are rushing to early vote at the last minute.
https://countyclerk.traviscountytx.gov/elections/current-election.html

Are they turned away when the locations are supposed to close? Or is it like the actual election day, where they are entitled to vote so long as they're in line by closing time?

[charcuterie]

Could the low turnout in Alabama, Mississippi, and West Virginia be viewed as a lack of enthusiasm for Trump? They were some of Trump's biggest margins in 2016.

Don't some of these states discourage mail voting/EV and some of them also don't allow COVID as an excuse to vote absentee, right?

[charcuterie]

Is it possible that there are a bunch of outstanding PA mail votes because people have gotten cold feet about sending them in amid all the legal battles over them? Or are 25% really going to come in by the 6th?

[charcuterie]

Someone on CNN just claimed that Democratic internal numbers show that Biden is winning the early votes already cast by a larger margin than the public models are showing...

Do we have a reason to believe said person? I don't know if I trust a random CNN contributor to be having reliable info necessarily on such a thing.

[charcuterie]

Someone on CNN just claimed that Democratic internal numbers show that Biden is winning the early votes already cast by a larger margin than the public models are showing...

Do we have a reason to believe said person? I don't know if I trust a random CNN contributor to be having reliable info necessarily on such a thing.

It was Ron Brownstein.

Is he typically reliable? I don't watch much TV news.

[charcuterie]

I think it's quite probable that on the day voting ends up a broad wash and Biden wins via early voting.

So that scenario would require unexpectedly low election-day turnout, especially on the GOP side?

[charcuterie]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1323301493890523136

Starting to feel strangely upbeat about Florida for Biden.