2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[BudgieForce]

Fox and AP definitely made a mistake calling this though. I think Biden will pull it out, but it's going to be by a very slim margin.

[BudgieForce]

I think we're getting another update at 12:00am eastern for Maricopa, so we might know more then.

[BudgieForce]

Hypothetically, if Trump wins the remainder of the 418,000 Arizona vote by 59%, Biden will end the count with around a 4000 vote lead.

Thats my crummy napkin math.

[BudgieForce]

do we know exactly how many ballots are left in each Arizona county right now?  I guess I could extrapolate from the percentages above but would be easier if there was a site that already did this.

(also, I don't think this matters because it's pretty clear Biden is going to win Pennsylvania)

- 340,000 in Maricopa
- 46,000 in Pima
- 17-18,000 in Yuma
- 13,000 in Coconino
- <1,000 in La Paz

[BudgieForce]

I'm not going to go back to my napkin, but Trump probably needs to get the remaining Arizona vote by more than 60% if he wants to take the lead. 59% isn't going to cut it. Its very possible he does better in later batches, but there's also two blue counties with outstanding ballots that should cushion Biden a small amount. Probably a few more days before anybody besides AP and Fox make a call on the race.

[BudgieForce]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1324185613394956288

A 3 point swing is terrific?

Hillary lost the state by less than a point. If Biden is improving in areas she cratered in, then its a good sign he'll win.

[BudgieForce]

Jon Ralston seems so hyped to announce Nevada's results tomorrow. I think that means they'll be good for Biden and agencies will call the state.

[BudgieForce]

https://twitter.com/williamlegate/status/1324170928599797762?s=20
Welp. I finally agree with Hannity on something, maybe this will start a movement to finally get rid of the Electoral College.

And in other news... Kanye West has conceded the election. Smh

I really wish that Kerry had won in 2004 while losing the popular vote. I think that would've given us the necessary bipartisan desire to put an end to the electoral college.

Was there ever a chance of that happening?

Kerry came within striking distance of winning Ohio.

[BudgieForce]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Carrasquillo/status/1324210928271958017

[BudgieForce]

I just got up. Did something happen overnight? Why do i get the feeling i missed a huge panic about Pennsylvania?

[BudgieForce]

Oh, I see why there was some panic. Apparently people thought there were over 700,000 votes left in PA when its actually only 488,000 votes.

[BudgieForce]

10:30 eastern or pacific?

[BudgieForce]

So what do we actually think the Trump campaign announces in half an hour? It can't just be "stealing the election", they've already declared victory and it hasn't stopped any of the counts. I doubt it's a concession either.

They already said.  Its a lawsuit saying that 10k people voted in Nevada who dont' live in the state/moved out.

Biden should sue Florida for the same reason then. So many snowbirds are registered to vote here and no-one does a damn thing about it.

[BudgieForce]

There's no way he got an injunction to stop the count right?

We'd have heard about something like that by now.  

[BudgieForce]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1324368202139357186?s=19

If they got that ruling in PA, then that is outright election theft.

If they got that ruling, we would hear about it.

Yep. A court order doesn't wait for a dramatic press conference announcement.

[BudgieForce]

https://twitter.com/MiguelMValle/status/1324373402996658176?s=19

In principle, I have no problem with that. Someone should keep an eye on the Trump observers though.

Poll Watchers are usually in their own area off to the side. They won't be able to just walk around and mess stuff up.

[BudgieForce]

Oh, I thought the rumor was that Allegheny County was done counting. I guess now.

[BudgieForce]

https://twitter.com/RyanDeto/status/1324378334395015168

Context on why Allegheny wont count their ballots until Friday.

[BudgieForce]

https://twitter.com/TalKopan/status/1324376477366890496

The worst timeline.

[BudgieForce]

I think people are really underestimating how popular Joe Biden could be as president.

[BudgieForce]

People are very much overestimating how conservative Kemp is. His 2018 campaign exagerated aspects of his political ethos.

I think he got a bad reputation from the allegations of voter disenfranchisement. And also the whole thing about staying as Secretary of State presiding over his own election.

[BudgieForce]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1324397896674914310

We're going to get ballots from rural areas that will drive that number down, but its a good result for Biden.

[BudgieForce]

Nevada can be called for Biden soon, there isn't much votes in the rurals

Also some Washoe County ballots that might be friendly to Trump, but the overwhelming amount is from Clark. I'd feel safe calling Nevada for Biden.

[BudgieForce]

Where's the big vote dump from PA?

Probably slowed down by that quick trip to the state supreme court.

[BudgieForce]

I am surprised how badly Trump is doing in NJ

I thought NJ would trend R.....

Bad for the NJGOP

And Tom Kean Jr. is finished in politics.

The name Kean is ancient in politics now.

NJ will probably get a few points more Republican when they finish counting the ballots. But NJ is basically one giant suburb and the suburbs hate Trump.