Trump approval ratings thread 1.2

[BudgieForce]

Why the polls are still wrong

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http://thehill.com/opinion/white-house/355066-why-the-polls-are-still-wrong

The 2016 national polls were not wrong. Im getting sick of this talking point.

[BudgieForce]

Gallup (October 12th)

Approve 39% (+2)
Disapprove 54% (-3)

The media blaming a rape scandal on the Democrats?

It's more along the lines of don't read too much into daily movements.

[BudgieForce]

That's pretty bad considering PPP has been somewhat favorable to him.

[BudgieForce]

Someone on twitter made an interesting point that even Hoover won 40% of the vote with people literally starving in the streets.

[BudgieForce]

Gallup (November 2nd)

Approve 39% (+1)
Disapprove 57% (-1)

The indictments actually HELPED him???

One should never put too much stock in the daily movements of a tracking poll. Trump has averaged about 38% in gallup for months. If his weekly average begins to go down, then you can tell if its hurt him. Right now its to soon.

[BudgieForce]

NBC/WSJ poll of 438 "Trump counties" that either flipped from D to R in 2016 or saw a significant surge to Trump.  Overall, he won these counties 57%-37%.

32% say the country is better off since Trump became President.  41% say it's worse off.

Trump's approval in these counties is 48/50.  In a similar poll in July, it was 50/46. 

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Other favorability ratings in these counties:

Barack Obama 48/37
Bernie Sanders 42/31
http://Hillary Clinton 23/60
Nancy Pelosi 16/44
Mitch McConnell 11/35

That explains alot.

[BudgieForce]

I'm surprised he hasn't dropped more in these counties.  Am I worrying over nothing?

I had the same reaction. This feels like an insignificant slip since earlier this year. I expected more.

Trump's approval ratings havent dropped all that much since June so its not surprising there hasnt been a huge change in swing counties.

[BudgieForce]

Exit polls from last night. VA 40/57, NJ 36/63.

The current average has him at 38-57 nationally, and his rating in VA is no doubt more than 2 points less than nationally. 38-57 is using many polls that poll all adults though, so if you adjust for likely voters it's probably more like 43-55, which tracks well with the fact that he got 46% of the vote and very few of those 46% have abandoned him.

43-55 makes sense, but I think your being a tad generous. If yesterday showed us anything, it's that Trumps base has remained firm but the tepid support he got from college educated whites has collapsed.

[BudgieForce]

Fivethirtyeight has a filter for registered and likely voters and doesn't help Trump all that much.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/voters/

[BudgieForce]

Eh, Clinton started out the 2016 cycle very popular as well, and Trump started out as unpopular as he is now. The thing with Trump is that he has a core base of support and he has a strong ability, as Fuzzy Bear has pointed out, to bring his opponents' favorables way down. Once it's in the mud, it's his ball game. The Democrats need a candidate who's not only more popular, but also has a sort of teflon quality where stuff just bounces off him/her, and they have a cult core of supporters who feel themselves as part of a movement to provide resilience. Just "not being Trump" won't be enough.

He has a strong ability to do that among his own base, hence why so many Republicans who get on his bad side end up tanking in the polls. He didn't make Clinton unpopular. She made herself unpopular with terrible decisions as Secretary of State and beyond. All Trump did was seize on existing scandals that had already driven her favorables down bigly.

I do agree with the the last part, about the need for teflon and a 'movement' quality.

And I'm sure his 15 Republicans opponents all 'made themselves unpopular'? No. It was not just Hillary. Whenever he would go after someone in the GOP primaries, the person he went after came out worse for wear, even when the attacks were absurd and over the top. It's a talent of his.

Virginia just said Trump has sway with his own base. Trump's base is a majority of the republican electorate, hence why he tanked other republican candidates.

[BudgieForce]

Morning Consult usually gives Trump good rating. I think their last poll was -9. Don't read too much into it.

[BudgieForce]

HOW MANY TIMES DO WE NEED TO SAY THIS!?

Dont read too much in the daily fluctuations of tracking polls. Holy effing crap, you people are trying sometimes.

[BudgieForce]

HOW MANY TIMES DO WE NEED TO SAY THIS!?

Dont read too much in the daily fluctuations of tracking polls. Holy effing crap, you people are trying sometimes.

We don't all agree with you on that. Any fluctuation has a reason behind it. Just because statistical fluctuations occur does not mean that a 2 point drop isn't due to the latest Mueller news or whatever the hypothesis may be.

I get that. But you shouldn't miss the forest for the trees. If you want to examine a trend, average the weekly numbers.

[BudgieForce]

Pew Research

Approve: 32%
Disapprove: 63%

http://www.people-press.org/2017/12/07/stark-partisan-divisions-over-russia-probe-including-its-importance-to-the-nation/

[BudgieForce]

Kind of hilarious Trump just posted the morning consult poll on twitter showing he has a 45% approval rating. Even if it were completely accurate, 45% is not good. Obama lost both houses of congress with 45% approval ratings.

[BudgieForce]

Gallup, 12/15

Approve 34 (-1)
Disapprove 61 (+1)

Down it goes! Air Claire gettin her step back!

♩ ♪ ♫ ♬ ♭ GOP is finished! ♩ ♪ ♫ ♬ ♭ GOP is done! ♩ ♪ ♫ ♬ ♭

Claire is very lucky to have been up for election in the 06,12 and 18 cycles. Bill Nelson as well.

If McCaskill gets another term, she will officially be the luckiest senator to ever live.

[BudgieForce]

Gallup, 12/15

Approve 34 (-1)
Disapprove 61 (+1)

Down it goes! Air Claire gettin her step back!

♩ ♪ ♫ ♬ ♭ GOP is finished! ♩ ♪ ♫ ♬ ♭ GOP is done! ♩ ♪ ♫ ♬ ♭

Claire is very lucky to have been up for election in the 06,12 and 18 cycles. Bill Nelson as well.

If McCaskill gets another term, she will officially be the luckiest senator to ever live.

Doug Jones says hi. McCaskill's got some skill unlike what Atlas and RRH seem to think.

Doug Jones will get the title if he gets a full term. McCaskill has run in three favorable cycles in a row, thats pretty damn lucky.

[BudgieForce]

WSJ/NBC (change from October)

Approve 41 (+3)
Disapprove 56 (-2)

Generic Congressional ballot: D 50, R 39 (was D+7 in Oct.)

Good approval number for him.

-15 is good?

[BudgieForce]

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/12/18/economic-optimism-soaring-helping-trump-cnbc-survey.html

CNBC poll: Trump underwater just 42-49, a 7 point increase in net approval since the last poll as Americans' views on the economy rise.

Democrats are in big big trouble if the economy is still humming along by the midterms next year. The Trump/Republican bounce back is coming.

Oh god. I bet Trump is gonna tweet this.

[BudgieForce]

Y'all get so triggered when a poll destroys your democratic wave narrative.

No we get triggered by your terrible hot takes.

[BudgieForce]

Rasmussen didn't nail anything last year. Their tracking poll showed Trump up throughout the entire election and only herded with other pollsters at the end.

[BudgieForce]

Rassmusen reports latest tracking poll:
Disapproval: 55%
Approval: 43%
I know a lot of people like to ignore them but I've always relied on Rassmusens surveys because their Likely voter screen is very accurate, for example they nailed the National popular vote last year.

Yep. Trump getting a boost from the Tax Reform.

He's had the same Rasmussen average for months.

[BudgieForce]

http://www.msnewsnow.com/story/37104554/new-poll-shows-senator-wicker-ahead-of-chris-mcdaniel-in-possible-senate-race-matchup

Wow, Trump 51-43 in approval in a state he won by 18 points. Great poll for him.

Why you do this to us Limoliberal? ;_;

[BudgieForce]

Don't worry limo. This thread is titled "Trump approval ratings" but it's actually "Daily dose of libs trying to feel better in Trump's America".

Doug Jones+1.5

44 point swing in Tennessee yesterday

RIP the GOP in 2018. They need to moderate and become more reasonable so they get educated swing voters like me back into their fold.

Seriously.

I think Republicans are underestimating how completely ****ed they are in 2018.

I mean just look at these numbers.

Live interview generic ballot polls in December
CNN D+18
Quinnipiac D+15
Monmouth D+15
Marist D+13
POS (R) D+12
NBC/WSJ D+11

Hillary won the popular vote by 2%. That was in line with her 4% lead in the polling average. National polling was pretty accurate in 2016.

Edit: A veteran of a polling forum should know that.

[BudgieForce]

But Republican pols are starting the barrage of laudatory praise of this President... and it sounds like a totalitarian personality cult.

I dont remember democrats blowing this much smoke up Obama's ass after AHCA was passed. Its pretty pathetic.