Trump approval ratings thread 1.2

[junior chįmp]

Gallup, 12/15

Approve 34 (-1)
Disapprove 61 (+1)

Down it goes! Air Claire gettin her step back!

♩ ♪ ♫ ♬ ♭ GOP is finished! ♩ ♪ ♫ ♬ ♭ GOP is done! ♩ ♪ ♫ ♬ ♭

[junior chįmp]

Another day, another new lowest approval rating:



Promises made. Promises kept.

[ProgressiveCanadian]

Another day, another new lowest approval rating:



Promises made. Promises kept.

How low can he go?

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Gallup, 12/15

Approve 34 (-1)
Disapprove 61 (+1)

Down it goes! Air Claire gettin her step back!

♩ ♪ ♫ ♬ ♭ GOP is finished! ♩ ♪ ♫ ♬ ♭ GOP is done! ♩ ♪ ♫ ♬ ♭

Claire is very lucky to have been up for election in the 06,12 and 18 cycles. Bill Nelson as well.

[BudgieForce]

Gallup, 12/15

Approve 34 (-1)
Disapprove 61 (+1)

Down it goes! Air Claire gettin her step back!

♩ ♪ ♫ ♬ ♭ GOP is finished! ♩ ♪ ♫ ♬ ♭ GOP is done! ♩ ♪ ♫ ♬ ♭

Claire is very lucky to have been up for election in the 06,12 and 18 cycles. Bill Nelson as well.

If McCaskill gets another term, she will officially be the luckiest senator to ever live.

[BudgieForce]

Gallup, 12/15

Approve 34 (-1)
Disapprove 61 (+1)

Down it goes! Air Claire gettin her step back!

♩ ♪ ♫ ♬ ♭ GOP is finished! ♩ ♪ ♫ ♬ ♭ GOP is done! ♩ ♪ ♫ ♬ ♭

Claire is very lucky to have been up for election in the 06,12 and 18 cycles. Bill Nelson as well.

If McCaskill gets another term, she will officially be the luckiest senator to ever live.

Doug Jones says hi. McCaskill's got some skill unlike what Atlas and RRH seem to think.

Doug Jones will get the title if he gets a full term. McCaskill has run in three favorable cycles in a row, thats pretty damn lucky.

[Dr. Arch]

Nifty Senate simulator that you can play around with by plugging in Trump's approval rating and incumbency and an "ineffective candidate" option (aka, Kelli Ward and Roy Moore). Under a 35% approval rating, Dems would be slight favorites to win the Senate.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2017/05/15/preview_2018_senate_results_with_rcps_interactive_tool.html

At a 32% disapproval, you get Alabama flipped under last week's conditions alongside TX, AZ, and NV, while Democrats hold onto all of their current seats. Democrats win 42% of the simulations in TN; if Marsha is nominated (+ineffective candidate), TN flips too.

[The Mikado]

Nifty Senate simulator that you can play around with by plugging in Trump's approval rating and incumbency and an "ineffective candidate" option (aka, Kelli Ward and Roy Moore). Under a 35% approval rating, Dems would be slight favorites to win the Senate.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2017/05/15/preview_2018_senate_results_with_rcps_interactive_tool.html

At a 32% disapproval, you get Alabama flipped under last week's conditions alongside TX, AZ, and NV, while Democrats hold onto all of their current seats. Democrats win 42% of the simulations in TN; if Marsha is nominated (+ineffective candidate), TN flips too.

TN, TX and MS flip at 35% approval under the simulation a majority of times if you take away the "safe?" marker, and the "incumbent" in TN (since this was made when Corker was still presumed running). This is why it is crucial to get these wave insurance candidates. You need candidates like Bredesen, O'Rourke and Presley who are strong enough to win if the wave crests high enough. If you take away incumbency in MS and the GOP nominated McDaniel the chances go way up under an unpopular Trump.

Of course, this model is flawed in that it underestimates Democratic incumbents like Manchin and overestimates McCaskill, and may put too much emphasis on universal swing, particularly in the South, but it does show you all the range of possibilities.

Getting high quality candidates is tough, though. TX Dems lucked out that Beto O'Rourke was willing to give up a House seat that he could've easily kept for the next 30 years to run for Senate knowing that he's a severe underdog. 9 times out of 10 in that situation, the safe House member would choose to just stay in the seat rather than make a quixotic bid against the Senator. Beto having the guts to do that says a lot about him.

[GeorgiaModerate]

WSJ/NBC (change from October)

Approve 41 (+3)
Disapprove 56 (-2)

Generic Congressional ballot: D 50, R 39 (was D+7 in Oct.)

[LimoLiberal]

WSJ/NBC (change from October)

Approve 41 (+3)
Disapprove 56 (-2)

Generic Congressional ballot: D 50, R 39 (was D+7 in Oct.)

Good approval number for him.

[OkThen]

WSJ/NBC (change from October)

Approve 41 (+3)
Disapprove 56 (-2)

Generic Congressional ballot: D 50, R 39 (was D+7 in Oct.)

Sort of strange that his approvals got better but generic ballot question shifted in the Dems favor no?

[BudgieForce]

WSJ/NBC (change from October)

Approve 41 (+3)
Disapprove 56 (-2)

Generic Congressional ballot: D 50, R 39 (was D+7 in Oct.)

Good approval number for him.

-15 is good?

[Brittain33]

WSJ/NBC (change from October)

Approve 41 (+3)
Disapprove 56 (-2)

Generic Congressional ballot: D 50, R 39 (was D+7 in Oct.)

Good approval number for him.

-15 is good?

Concern troll is concern trolling.

[junior chįmp]

WSJ/NBC (change from October)

Approve 41 (+3)
Disapprove 56 (-2)

Generic Congressional ballot: D 50, R 39 (was D+7 in Oct.)

Good approval number for him.

The only reason his approval rating has gone up is because the prospect of him going to jail has increased

[Holmes]

WSJ/NBC (change from October)

Approve 41 (+3)
Disapprove 56 (-2)

Generic Congressional ballot: D 50, R 39 (was D+7 in Oct.)

Good approval number for him.

The only reason his approval rating has gone up is because the prospect of him going to jail has increased

"Trump's actions might land him in jail? I approve of that."

[junior chįmp]

WSJ/NBC (change from October)

Approve 41 (+3)
Disapprove 56 (-2)

Generic Congressional ballot: D 50, R 39 (was D+7 in Oct.)

Good approval number for him.

The only reason his approval rating has gone up is because the prospect of him going to jail has increased

"Trump's actions might land him in jail? I approve of that."

"We approve of his job as an inmate"

[GeorgiaModerate]

WSJ/NBC (change from October)

Approve 41 (+3)
Disapprove 56 (-2)

Generic Congressional ballot: D 50, R 39 (was D+7 in Oct.)

Good approval number for him.

-15 is good?

It's one of Trump's better ratings in recent polls -- which tells you all you need to know about his popularity.  It was a jump from the previous WSJ/NBC poll (38/58), but that one may have been a bit of an outlier because the next earlier one was 43/52.

The previous history of this poll, per 538:

Feb 18-22  44/48
Apr 3-6  39/48
Apr 17-20  40/54
May 11/13  39/54
Jun 9-12  37/51
Jun 17-20  40/55
Aug 5-9  40/55
Sep 14-18  43/52
Oct 23-26  38/58

(current) 41/56

[GeorgiaModerate]

Gallup, 12/16

Approve 35 (+1)
Disapprove 60 (-1)

[Virginiá]

Sort of strange that his approvals got better but generic ballot question shifted in the Dems favor no?

Not necessarily. It just means people who disapprove of Trump are becoming more willing to translate that disapproval into punishment against his party. I'm sure there are some Trump supporters who are not all too happy with Congressional Republicans, as well, given how the GOP agenda being pushed right now goes counter to Trump's promises. Also, given that people who disapprove of the president are highly correlated with votes against the president's party, -15 leaves plenty of room for that generic poll movement.

[junior chįmp]

Mmmm...look at that under 35 number:



Permanent majority imminent

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

]\[gh=== ...  iki

(The cat just walked upon my keyboard).

It's pretty bad for Trump when the best polling news he's had in a long while is a cat walking across a keyboard.

[Virginiá]

Mmmm...look at that under 35 number:



Permanent majority imminent

If that is the end result, or even higher, it would have to be the worst performance among young(er) voters Republicans have posted since maybe 1974 or 1964, or perhaps even further back. The funny thing is, Republicans have been posting awful results with young voters for so long that this isn't even *that* surprising.

This is also part of why 2018 has me so interested - for the first time since young voters have trended hard against the GOP, we get to see just how low they can go. After all, 2006 and 2008 was only the beginning of their hard left trend, and from 2010-2016, that was all under Obama, whose presidency depressed the Dem base enough to result in some pretty big waves. But if Democrats really do get 70%, that will show that Republicans have lost even more support among Millennials/gen z under Obama than we originally thought, and that their bottom may actually be in the upper teens-lower 20s.

Republicans really should be worrying about this, but I rarely ever see any true concern for it. In fact, Republican lawmakers have basically accepted it and essentially take craps on the Millennial generation from their lofty perches. Meanwhile, these voters are growing up and will eventually displace baby boomers. What do Republicans think they will do then? Magically turn Republican just because they got older, all while the GOP has done nothing to reach out to them? Puh-lease.

[Dr. Arch]

Mmmm...look at that under 35 number:



Permanent majority imminent

If that is the end result, or even higher, it would have to be the worst performance among young(er) voters Republicans have posted since maybe 1974 or 1964, or perhaps even further back. The funny thing is, Republicans have been posting awful results with young voters for so long that this isn't even *that* surprising.

This is also part of why 2018 has me so interested - for the first time since young voters have trended hard against the GOP, we get to see just how low they can go. After all, 2006 and 2008 was only the beginning of their hard left trend, and from 2010-2016, that was all under Obama, whose presidency depressed the Dem base enough to result in some pretty big waves. But if Democrats really do get 70%, that will show that Republicans have lost even more support among Millennials/gen z under Obama than we originally thought, and that their bottom may actually be in the upper teens-lower 20s.

Republicans really should be worrying about this, but I rarely ever see any true concern for it. In fact, Republican lawmakers have basically accepted it and essentially take craps on the Millennial generation from their lofty perches. Meanwhile, these voters are growing up and will eventually displace baby boomers. What do Republicans think they will do then? Magically turn Republican just because they got older, all while the GOP has done nothing to reach out to them? Puh-lease.

Oh, they'll learn their lesson. They just need to wait a little bit.


-A Millennial

[American2020]

Mmmm...look at that under 35 number:



Permanent majority imminent

John Kasich is confirming it.

http://www.cnn.com/2017/12/17/politics/kasich-gop-losing-future/?iid=ob_lockedrail_topeditorial

[BlueSwan]

Mmmm...look at that under 35 number:



Permanent majority imminent

John Kasich is confirming it.

http://www.cnn.com/2017/12/17/politics/kasich-gop-losing-future/?iid=ob_lockedrail_topeditorial

Now, if there was only some way that we could get millenials to actually freakin' vote we wouldn't have been in this mess in the first place.