Does anyone see Joe Cunningham as a good analog towards MGP? He also won an R-leaning district after the incumbent was primaried from the right.
wasn't Cunningham's district a double digit Trump district ? WA03 was only Trump+4. I feel like MGP can survive in 2024 if Trump runs since it was only a Trump +4 district but will be much harder to win in a midterm under Dem president against a generic R. She outran top of the ticket by 9 points this year (Smiley won that district by 7.5 points) but had the advantage of running against a poor opponent, something that's not guaranteed in future. I think strong incumbents can outrun top of ticket by 4-5 points...will be harder to do beyond that though
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