Will Marie Perez be a one-term wonder?

[Tekken_Guy]

Will Marie Perez be a one-term wonder, or does she survive 2024?

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Probably?

[soundchaser]

She seems like the sort of person, like Spanberger, who is really good at constituent communication. I could see that being enough for serious incumbency advantage in her case.

[brucejoel99]

If JHB tries a comeback, MGP is presumably DOA but otherwise, so long as she maintains Peltola-like vibes that win her JHB swing-voters, she'll be fine.

[wbrocks67]

If JHB tries a comeback, MGP is presumably DOA but otherwise, so long as she maintains Peltola-like vibes that win her JHB swing-voters, she'll be fine.

I mean, this is possible, but I feel like it's also possible that voters may just be done with JHB? She was a fake moderate anyway. Yea she voted to impeach Trump, but she was awful on all the social issues like birth control, abortion, gay marriage, etc. MGP actually seems more fit to this district than JHB ever did.

[MargieCat]

It's possible MGP overperforms Biden in 2024.

It's also possible that Biden wins this district next go around.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

If JHB tries a comeback, MGP is presumably DOA but otherwise, so long as she maintains Peltola-like vibes that win her JHB swing-voters, she'll be fine.

3 letter acronyms are become so common in modern political discussions. Soon it’ll be all we yse

JHB vs MGP? MGP DOA

[Spectator]

If JHB tries a comeback, MGP is presumably DOA but otherwise, so long as she maintains Peltola-like vibes that win her JHB swing-voters, she'll be fine.

Who exactly would be JHB's supporters to get her out of the primary? She was heavily reliant on partisan Democrats this year, and that obviously won't be repeatable when they have an incumbent Democratic Congresswoman to vote for instead. JHB is DOA if she ran again so long as Republicans run anyone else.

[Dani Rose]

I'm gonna go ahead and say no, to be honest. Enough of the district GOP has gone insane enough to pick someone like Joe Kent as their nominee, which doesn't augur well for someone more reasonable being nominated in 2024. Pair that with MGP's political sensibilities - quite a lot like Peltola's, as people have said above me - and I don't see her actually being that easy to dislodge.

[ProgressiveModerate]

While yes, WA-03 is a Trump district and tends to lean R overall, it was only Trump + 4 in 2020, which is def not impossible partisanship to overcome. She'd need to build up a pretty effective brand pretty fast though which will be hard but not impossible (see Mary Peltola).

If she faces a truly competent R and/or 2024 is just a good year for Rs, she's toast.

[Gracile]

If JHB tries a comeback, MGP is presumably DOA but otherwise, so long as she maintains Peltola-like vibes that win her JHB swing-voters, she'll be fine.

Peltola's situation in Alaska is a poor point of comparison to WA-03. Alaska has always been one of the more unusual states politically, given its isolation, history of coalition governments, and comparatively strong support for non-major parties that make it far different than most other places in the mainland US. I also think Peltola's performance in November was far more impressive. With Alaska's modest Democratic trend over the past decade, she could be positioned well for a long career where she can enjoy significant crossover support. WA-03, by contrast, contains more archetypal working-class Trump voters who have shifted away from the Democratic Party, and the region has become more Republican since the Obama era. Gluesenkamp Perez only won by less than a point, which isn't far off from the district's partisanship, against a flawed opponent. Not saying that she can't win reelection, but I'd still think a more serious Republican candidate (really someone who isn't Kent) would have a good shot at taking her down.

[Tekken_Guy]

Does anyone see Joe Cunningham as a good analog towards MGP? He also won an R-leaning district after the incumbent was primaried from the right.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Does anyone see Joe Cunningham as a good analog towards MGP? He also won an R-leaning district after the incumbent was primaried from the right.

Yes sort of, but demographically his district is very different and was a bit redder.

[Ogre Mage]

Republicans are the narrow majority in WA-3.  Did they learn their lesson from this disaster?  The best thing for Perez would be if they continue to run hard core MAGA types against her.  

[Xing]

Depends at least somewhat on who her opponent is, but I think too many are writing her off. People act as though WA-03 is this super Trumpy district that is trending far to the right, when in reality, it’s a lot more complicated than that. Trump won it by 4, which is just slightly better than how Romney did in 2012, and if the growth in the Vancouver area continues, it could trend leftward. Cowlitz county is not the entire district.

I’d say it’s a Toss-Up right now, and JHB making a comeback is extremely unlikely, since with Democrats supporting Perez, she’d have basically no path to the top two.

[wbrocks67]

If JHB tries a comeback, MGP is presumably DOA but otherwise, so long as she maintains Peltola-like vibes that win her JHB swing-voters, she'll be fine.

Peltola's situation in Alaska is a poor point of comparison to WA-03. Alaska has always been one of the more unusual states politically, given its isolation, history of coalition governments, and comparatively strong support for non-major parties that make it far different than most other places in the mainland US. I also think Peltola's performance in November was far more impressive. With Alaska's modest Democratic trend over the past decade, she could be positioned well for a long career where she can enjoy significant crossover support. WA-03, by contrast, contains more archetypal working-class Trump voters who have shifted away from the Democratic Party, and the region has become more Republican since the Obama era. Gluesenkamp Perez only won by less than a point, which isn't far off from the district's partisanship, against a flawed opponent. Not saying that she can't win reelection, but I'd still think a more serious Republican candidate (really someone who isn't Kent) would have a good shot at taking her down.

I think the Alaska comparison though is more about how she was essentially kind of a lucky inherent of the seat, but in the end, it actually worked out because she ended up being the exact type of person who would be lodged longterm in a seat like this. I think Peltola obviously will be lodged in AK-AL longer than MGP would be, but I think at the same time, the comparison is apt though in that MGP seems like a great fit for the district at this point in time and now could cultivate a strong Peltola/Cartwright type lodge in that district.

Or she could be a Joe Cunningham-type. But Cunningham never seemed to be lodged into that district the way that Peltola or even MGP appears to be. Also, Cunningham won in a blue wave year. MGP ended up winning the seat in a Democratic midterm.

[prag_prog]

Does anyone see Joe Cunningham as a good analog towards MGP? He also won an R-leaning district after the incumbent was primaried from the right.

wasn't Cunningham's district a double digit Trump district ? WA03 was only Trump+4. I feel like MGP can survive in 2024 if Trump runs since it was only a Trump +4 district but will be much harder to win in a midterm under Dem president against a generic R. She outran top of the ticket by 9 points this year (Smiley won that district by 7.5 points) but had the advantage of running against a poor opponent, something that's not guaranteed in future. I think strong incumbents can outrun top of ticket by 4-5 points...will be harder to do beyond that though

[ProgressiveModerate]

Does anyone see Joe Cunningham as a good analog towards MGP? He also won an R-leaning district after the incumbent was primaried from the right.

wasn't Cunningham's district a double digit Trump district ? WA03 was only Trump+4. I feel like MGP can survive in 2024 if Trump runs since it was only a Trump +4 district but will be much harder to win in a midterm under Dem president against a generic R. She outran top of the ticket by 9 points this year (Smiley won that district by 7.5 points) but had the advantage of running against a poor opponent, something that's not guaranteed in future. I think strong incumbents can outrun top of ticket by 4-5 points...will be harder to do beyond that though

In 2020, SC-01 was Trump + 6 as Cunningham lost by ~1% to Mace, so a 5 point overperformance on his part.

It is important to rmbr though Mace is actually a pretty mainstream bordering on "moderate" R who faced a serious primary from the right this cycle, defeating Arrington 53-45.

Lowkey one kinda surprising thing is that Mace "only" won by a little under 14%, as the newly configured version of her district was Trump + 9. Considering the black turnout drop in much of the southeast, the fact she didn't face a serious opponent, and also was relatively uncontroversial (at least to swing voters), I would've thought she would've done better.

[Tekken_Guy]

Does anyone see Joe Cunningham as a good analog towards MGP? He also won an R-leaning district after the incumbent was primaried from the right.

wasn't Cunningham's district a double digit Trump district ? WA03 was only Trump+4. I feel like MGP can survive in 2024 if Trump runs since it was only a Trump +4 district but will be much harder to win in a midterm under Dem president against a generic R. She outran top of the ticket by 9 points this year (Smiley won that district by 7.5 points) but had the advantage of running against a poor opponent, something that's not guaranteed in future. I think strong incumbents can outrun top of ticket by 4-5 points...will be harder to do beyond that though

It was a double digit Trump seat in 2016, but in 2020 it was only Trump+6.

[ottermax]

WA-3 is an odd district. It historically was a very strong Democratic district, and still has a strongly ancestral Democratic experience. It has only become more Republican as Democrats have become the party of the suburbs shifting priorities away from rural issues like logging.

That being said the district is changing. Clark County is where the population is growing and is suburban. It is possible that MGP can do just better enough in rural areas given her brand, but if growth continues in Clark County and trends towards Democrats as it did from 2016 to 2020 she may pick up enough votes to stay alive in 2024 and potentially the rest of the decade.

I do think the antagonism towards Portland and Seattle will slowly fade as it becomes less of a trendy topic in the news cycle and more newcomers arrive who don't have such negative perceptions of the big cities.

[Mr. Smith]

I'm pretty sure she'll make it past 2024 as I'm sure Biden wins the district and state regardless of overall result.

2026 is a different story.

[wbrocks67]

Does anyone see Joe Cunningham as a good analog towards MGP? He also won an R-leaning district after the incumbent was primaried from the right.

wasn't Cunningham's district a double digit Trump district ? WA03 was only Trump+4. I feel like MGP can survive in 2024 if Trump runs since it was only a Trump +4 district but will be much harder to win in a midterm under Dem president against a generic R. She outran top of the ticket by 9 points this year (Smiley won that district by 7.5 points) but had the advantage of running against a poor opponent, something that's not guaranteed in future. I think strong incumbents can outrun top of ticket by 4-5 points...will be harder to do beyond that though

In 2020, SC-01 was Trump + 6 as Cunningham lost by ~1% to Mace, so a 5 point overperformance on his part.

It is important to rmbr though Mace is actually a pretty mainstream bordering on "moderate" R who faced a serious primary from the right this cycle, defeating Arrington 53-45.

Lowkey one kinda surprising thing is that Mace "only" won by a little under 14%, as the newly configured version of her district was Trump + 9. Considering the black turnout drop in much of the southeast, the fact she didn't face a serious opponent, and also was relatively uncontroversial (at least to swing voters), I would've thought she would've done better.

Mace is kind of awful though, so I'm not surprised. I wouldn't exactly call her mainstream/moderate either. She's as fake as they come.

[Brittain33]

I can see Joe Kent running again and losing.