Presidential debate megathread (debate 1: June 27, 9pm EDT, CNN)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Having earlier debates is a good idea due to the prevalence of early voting.

What I read into this is that the Biden team believes they actually are behind (despite what they say) and they figure putting Trump more in front of the voters will drag him down.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/CNNPR/status/1790757195455324413

[GeorgiaModerate]

Both Campaigns are actually really stupid if they think that a June Debate would influence how Voters cast Ballots in September/October/November.

Most people ain't tuning into Politics until after Labor Day.

After that June Debate Trump still has to name his Running Mate, has his Convention as does Biden + the Paris Summer Olympics where the Race is basically shut down.

The September Date is way more meaningful IMO!

June 27th is rougly a week before Independence Day where Families planting & preparing their Summer Vacations/Holidays.

The calculation for the Biden camp is that this brings Trump back into voters' attention and reinforces the fact that yes, this is a choice between Biden and Trump - something which a large part of the less tuned-in part of the electorate still doesn't seem to realize!  Biden needs to make this a "choice" election, rather than a referendum on his own performance.  If it's the latter, he probably loses.  If it's the former, he's in a much better position.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I thought the consensus on this board was that Trump would never actually accept a debate this year?
And now that he actually -has- accepted Biden’s debate terms, the instant reaction is that -Biden- must know he’s losing?

This is much more an affirmation of the wacky sense of this board that “All news help Republicans!” than it tells us anything about Biden pr Trump.

Yes, obviously both candidates think it will help them or they wouldn't do it.  It's actually more interesting to me that Trump accepted quickly than that Biden proposed the debate.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Trump announced he challenged Biden to a 3rd debate on Fox News on October 2, we have yet to receive confirmation of this one. If confirmed though, that will mean Trump and Biden have successfully subverted the Commission on Presidential Debates, which definitely marks a new era in the period of presidential debates.

Trump is honestly dumb for accepting these without that being accepted. Unless of course his internals aren’t as good as the polls say and he wants an early debate as well because if he was really ahead in every swing state then why would he accept such an early debate .

Why do you mean by the bolded? What is "that"?

Trump's proposal for a third debate on Fox.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/awprokop/status/1790796893359948139

[GeorgiaModerate]

Is RFK going to be on enough ballots by the eligibility deadline (whatever it is) to meet the 270 EV threshold?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Dana Bash and Jake Tapper will moderate the CNN debate.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I have full confidence in Biden. Sure, he isn't his 2012 self, but Trump has always sucked at debates...

Trump during the 2016 primaries was a classic, the highlights from when he was taking on the entire field never gets old. There is also an argument to be made that he won both debates in 2020.

There's also an argument to be made that the Earth is flat, and that's about as sound an argument as the one you suggest.

[GeorgiaModerate]

That message is clearly not resonating with voters that were not already dyed-in-the-wool voting Democrat, whether the candidate be Donald Trump or Mitt Romney.

Everybody was saying the same s**t back in 2022: nobody cares about democracy and abortion, Democrats should talk more bout the economy, etc.
Look how that turned out.

Democrats lost that election!

However, they performed much better than expectations.

[GeorgiaModerate]

How were polls affected after the first debate of 2020 with Trump’s disastrous performance?

Anyone know?

I think they were good for Biden, but it barely mattered by election day since polling was amiss.

Debates matter only in the short term unless a significant moment becomes seized upon by the opposition (like Oz's women, doctor, and government officials comment).

Biden gained about 3 points of margin in 538's average in the 2 weeks after the first debate, although by Election Day he'd given back about 2 of them.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Changed the title and stickied the thread - we can use this as a megathread for all the debates.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The bar is on the floor.

Convenient when one is falling-down drunk.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/NidiaCavazosTV/status/1791112855057568055

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/brianstelter/status/1791599565725942050

[GeorgiaModerate]

Is it this time of the year again?

If I were Biden, I would accept under the condition that Trump publishes his tax returns.

https://twitter.com/nypost/status/1791695874512363954

Biden would never accept to any drug test under any conditions, no matter what was offered in return.

 

[GeorgiaModerate]

I wonder if Anderson Cooper will start crying again and yelling at people if anyone laughs at Trumps jokes.

No live audience.

[GeorgiaModerate]

RFK needs one more poll over 15% to qualify for the debate now.

And ballot access in states with at least 270 electoral votes.

[GeorgiaModerate]

RFK needs one more poll over 15% to qualify for the debate now.

And ballot access in states with at least 270 electoral votes.

Which seems extremely unlikely. Where's the other 3 polls for RFK over 15% though? Are we counting the entire cycle or is there a time frame? He's only been above 15 in one recently (Marquette out today?)

I actually thought he needed 15% on average, not in an x number of polls. Ergo, RCP or 538 average.

No, it's at least 15% in four qualifying polls.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Well the mics are going to be off when it's not their turn to speak so I guess there won't be interrupting.

Yeah, which is actually good for Trump.

It won't surprise me if Trump tries to interrupt and shout over Biden even when his mic is off.