Presidential debate megathread (debate 1: June 27, 9pm EDT, CNN)

[President Johnson]

I think having the debates earlier in the year helps Trump, actually.

The public memory is short. Unless he absolutely BOMBS the first debate, I think most will consider it a draw and it won't be in the public memory by November.

The second and final debate is September 10th. That's almost 2 months out from the election. Again, unless Trump bombs this one, has a Gerald Ford "there is no domination of Eastern Europe" moment, I don't think it'll have any major impact. For either, really

"no matter what happens with the debates, it helps Trump actually"

god i am EXHAUSTED

It's kind of odd when you consider yourself a huge Obama stan while strong critic of Biden at the same time. From a Democratic perspective, Biden has been a better president and party leader. Only terms of charisma, Obama is obviously in a league of his own, only comparable with Clinton and Reagan.

[Eraserhead]

I think having the debates earlier in the year helps Trump, actually.

The public memory is short. Unless he absolutely BOMBS the first debate, I think most will consider it a draw and it won't be in the public memory by November.

The second and final debate is September 10th. That's almost 2 months out from the election. Again, unless Trump bombs this one, has a Gerald Ford "there is no domination of Eastern Europe" moment, I don't think it'll have any major impact. For either, really

"no matter what happens with the debates, it helps Trump actually"

god i am EXHAUSTED

It's kind of odd when you consider yourself a huge Obama stan while strong critic of Biden at the same time. From a Democratic perspective, Biden has been a better president and party leader. Only terms of charisma, Obama is obviously in a league of his own, only comparable with Clinton and Reagan.

Everything you said is entirely subjective and if Biden does end up losing this year, I doubt there will be many people who will agree with you.

[Obama24]

I think having the debates earlier in the year helps Trump, actually.

The public memory is short. Unless he absolutely BOMBS the first debate, I think most will consider it a draw and it won't be in the public memory by November.

The second and final debate is September 10th. That's almost 2 months out from the election. Again, unless Trump bombs this one, has a Gerald Ford "there is no domination of Eastern Europe" moment, I don't think it'll have any major impact. For either, really

"no matter what happens with the debates, it helps Trump actually"

god i am EXHAUSTED

I'm just stating my opinion.

Usually debates are held in late September - mid October, when the performance of such would perhaps swing the election. It's been commonly suggested that the second debate in 1976 cost Gerry Ford the election and that if that election were held just two weeks later, he would've won. Al Gore may have lost 2000 in part because in the debates he came off stiff and pushy compared to Bush.

But these are different. We're having our first debate in the middle of summer. MONTHS out from the election. The second is in mid September, almost two months out.

I just don't see a downside for Trump with them unless he makes a massive gaffe that doesn't resound well. The bar is very very very low for both he and Biden. Trump needs to not make a racial slur and Biden needs to not fall asleep or even seem with it for either to have 'done well'

[wbrocks67]

I think having the debates earlier in the year helps Trump, actually.

The public memory is short. Unless he absolutely BOMBS the first debate, I think most will consider it a draw and it won't be in the public memory by November.

The second and final debate is September 10th. That's almost 2 months out from the election. Again, unless Trump bombs this one, has a Gerald Ford "there is no domination of Eastern Europe" moment, I don't think it'll have any major impact. For either, really

"no matter what happens with the debates, it helps Trump actually"

god i am EXHAUSTED

I'm just stating my opinion.

Usually debates are held in late September - mid October, when the performance of such would perhaps swing the election. It's been commonly suggested that the second debate in 1976 cost Gerry Ford the election and that if that election were held just two weeks later, he would've won. Al Gore may have lost 2000 in part because in the debates he came off stiff and pushy compared to Bush.

But these are different. We're having our first debate in the middle of summer. MONTHS out from the election. The second is in mid September, almost two months out.

I just don't see a downside for Trump with them unless he makes a massive gaffe that doesn't resound well. The bar is very very very low for both he and Biden. Trump needs to not make a racial slur and Biden needs to not fall asleep or even seem with it for either to have 'done well'

Trump lost every debate in 2020. And 2016. There absolutely is a downside for him. It's not just "not making a racial slur" - the point of having the early debate, which you seem to be missing,is to solidfy the matchup for those that are disengaged. It's to set the stage and let everyone know - even in June - this is real. The debates aren't going to be "make or break" for anyone unless there is some huge issue, but it certainly can hurt/help and give Biden momentum if he's able to turn in a good appearance, helping galvanize the voters he needs to return to the fold.

Debates are never make or break. The 2020 1st debate absolutely hurt Trump. But it was never going to cost him the race - they rarely ever do.

[dspNY]

Sean Hannity floated a trial balloon tonight about the debate by speculating that Trump will refuse to debate

[GeorgiaModerate]

Moderator note: the thread was derailing into an increasingly off-topic argument between two users.  I've removed those posts, no infractions.  If you want to continue that argument, please take it to private messages.

[Eraserhead]

Damn, I would have taken the "infractions" if it could have stayed up. There were no threats or swearing and it was related to the thread topic.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Damn, I would have taken the "infractions" if it could have stayed up. There were no threats or swearing and it was related to the thread topic.

It started that way, but you guys veered off into more of a general complaint exchange about each other. 

[dspNY]

Here's the brief clip I saw yesterday of Sean Hannity floating the "Trump will back out of the debate" trial balloon

https://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1800340884493607206?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp...

[wbrocks67]

I still would be very surprised to see Trump drop out. He'll find any way to rationalize it, but it would not be helpful to him.

[Compuzled_One]

Could this mean something, given Kennedy can reasonably be assumed to get on 272 EVs?

https://www.kitv.com/news/cnn-debate-criteria-not-backed-by-fec-regulation/article_150180ec-2796-11ef-87b4-f343cf4897c3.html

[Progressive Pessimist]

I still would be very surprised to see Trump drop out. He'll find any way to rationalize it, but it would not be helpful to him.

I still disagree. He would be turning down an opportunity to actually have to answer questions and be held to account for them or have them challenged. It would be so much easier if he just did one of his rallies, said something outrageous, and then that slips through the headlines in ways a debate wouldn't.

[Obama24]

I still would be very surprised to see Trump drop out. He'll find any way to rationalize it, but it would not be helpful to him.

I still disagree. He would be turning down an opportunity to actually have to answer questions and be held to account for them or have them challenged. It would be so much easier if he just did one of his rallies, said something outrageous, and then that slips through the headlines in ways a debate wouldn't.

I'm gonna say Trump calls out at the last minute, citing that Biden refused a drug test as his reasoning for pulling out.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I would have no problem with Biden taking a drug test provided Trump also takes one, and it is established as a requirement for all candidates in future presidential debates.  Let's be fair.

[emailking]

I doubt he backs out of either debate.

[Open Source Intelligence]

I don't know why people expect this to be cancelled, why would it be?

https://independentpoliticalreport.com/2024/06/federal-election-commission-reportedly-confirms-presumptive-nominee-not-in-debate-regulations/

The Federal Election Commission reportedly confirmed that the designation “presumptive nominee,” which has been used by CNN to justify exclusive debate invitations to Presidents Joe Biden and Donald Trump ahead of their respective party’s national conventions, is not officially recognized by FEC regulations.

According to a report published by KITV4 Island News this week, an FEC spokesperson confirmed that the designation “presumptive nominee,” which CNN has cited to justify its direct inclusion of Biden and Trump in a debate set for later this month, is “not in the FEC’s debate regulation.” However, the FEC spokesperson said they could not elaborate further on the discrepancy due to a complaint filed by Robert F. Kennedy Jr. last month over CNN’s adoption of the debate criteria. KITV4 Island News also spoke with Commission on Presidential Debates co-chairman Frank Fahrenkopf and several Secretaries of State.

Kennedy filed a formal complaint with the FEC on May 28, claiming that CNN, in conjunction with the campaigns of Joe Biden and Donald Trump, engaged in flagrant violations of the Federal Election Campaign Act. In his complaint, Kennedy argues that the debate criteria used are neither objective nor pre-established, and that the requirement for candidates to be on enough ballots to win 270 electoral votes by June is not realistic until after a party holds its national convention. Failing to use objective criteria while automatically including Biden and Trump as “presumptive nominees” would mean the debate constitutes a campaign contribution, subject to strict donation limits.

In a press release on Tuesday, the Kennedy campaign reiterated its call for CNN to apply its criteria objectively, stating that a failure to do so amounts to a willful violation of campaign finance law, and that the FEC should prevent the debate from taking place until an agreement can be reached that complies with the Federal Election Campaign Act.

“Now, with FEC’s recent statement, it appears beyond doubt the debate will, absent Kennedy’s participation, violate campaign finance laws and that CNN and its staff are knowingly and willfully violating these laws,” the campaign stated. “As explained in the FEC complaint, ‘By demanding our campaign meet different criteria to participate in the debate than Presidents Biden and Trump, CNN’s debate violates FEC law and is a large prohibited corporate contribution to both the Biden and Trump campaigns.'”

[wbrocks67]

I don't know why people expect this to be cancelled, why would it be?

https://independentpoliticalreport.com/2024/06/federal-election-commission-reportedly-confirms-presumptive-nominee-not-in-debate-regulations/

The Federal Election Commission reportedly confirmed that the designation “presumptive nominee,” which has been used by CNN to justify exclusive debate invitations to Presidents Joe Biden and Donald Trump ahead of their respective party’s national conventions, is not officially recognized by FEC regulations.

According to a report published by KITV4 Island News this week, an FEC spokesperson confirmed that the designation “presumptive nominee,” which CNN has cited to justify its direct inclusion of Biden and Trump in a debate set for later this month, is “not in the FEC’s debate regulation.” However, the FEC spokesperson said they could not elaborate further on the discrepancy due to a complaint filed by Robert F. Kennedy Jr. last month over CNN’s adoption of the debate criteria. KITV4 Island News also spoke with Commission on Presidential Debates co-chairman Frank Fahrenkopf and several Secretaries of State.

Kennedy filed a formal complaint with the FEC on May 28, claiming that CNN, in conjunction with the campaigns of Joe Biden and Donald Trump, engaged in flagrant violations of the Federal Election Campaign Act. In his complaint, Kennedy argues that the debate criteria used are neither objective nor pre-established, and that the requirement for candidates to be on enough ballots to win 270 electoral votes by June is not realistic until after a party holds its national convention. Failing to use objective criteria while automatically including Biden and Trump as “presumptive nominees” would mean the debate constitutes a campaign contribution, subject to strict donation limits.

In a press release on Tuesday, the Kennedy campaign reiterated its call for CNN to apply its criteria objectively, stating that a failure to do so amounts to a willful violation of campaign finance law, and that the FEC should prevent the debate from taking place until an agreement can be reached that complies with the Federal Election Campaign Act.

“Now, with FEC’s recent statement, it appears beyond doubt the debate will, absent Kennedy’s participation, violate campaign finance laws and that CNN and its staff are knowingly and willfully violating these laws,” the campaign stated. “As explained in the FEC complaint, ‘By demanding our campaign meet different criteria to participate in the debate than Presidents Biden and Trump, CNN’s debate violates FEC law and is a large prohibited corporate contribution to both the Biden and Trump campaigns.'”

This reads to me like nothing but sour grapes from the Kennedy campaign. That won't be a reason for the debate to not happen.

[Attorney General & LGC Deputy Dwarven Dragon]

I don't know why people expect this to be cancelled, why would it be?

https://independentpoliticalreport.com/2024/06/federal-election-commission-reportedly-confirms-presumptive-nominee-not-in-debate-regulations/

The Federal Election Commission reportedly confirmed that the designation “presumptive nominee,” which has been used by CNN to justify exclusive debate invitations to Presidents Joe Biden and Donald Trump ahead of their respective party’s national conventions, is not officially recognized by FEC regulations.

According to a report published by KITV4 Island News this week, an FEC spokesperson confirmed that the designation “presumptive nominee,” which CNN has cited to justify its direct inclusion of Biden and Trump in a debate set for later this month, is “not in the FEC’s debate regulation.” However, the FEC spokesperson said they could not elaborate further on the discrepancy due to a complaint filed by Robert F. Kennedy Jr. last month over CNN’s adoption of the debate criteria. KITV4 Island News also spoke with Commission on Presidential Debates co-chairman Frank Fahrenkopf and several Secretaries of State.

Kennedy filed a formal complaint with the FEC on May 28, claiming that CNN, in conjunction with the campaigns of Joe Biden and Donald Trump, engaged in flagrant violations of the Federal Election Campaign Act. In his complaint, Kennedy argues that the debate criteria used are neither objective nor pre-established, and that the requirement for candidates to be on enough ballots to win 270 electoral votes by June is not realistic until after a party holds its national convention. Failing to use objective criteria while automatically including Biden and Trump as “presumptive nominees” would mean the debate constitutes a campaign contribution, subject to strict donation limits.

In a press release on Tuesday, the Kennedy campaign reiterated its call for CNN to apply its criteria objectively, stating that a failure to do so amounts to a willful violation of campaign finance law, and that the FEC should prevent the debate from taking place until an agreement can be reached that complies with the Federal Election Campaign Act.

“Now, with FEC’s recent statement, it appears beyond doubt the debate will, absent Kennedy’s participation, violate campaign finance laws and that CNN and its staff are knowingly and willfully violating these laws,” the campaign stated. “As explained in the FEC complaint, ‘By demanding our campaign meet different criteria to participate in the debate than Presidents Biden and Trump, CNN’s debate violates FEC law and is a large prohibited corporate contribution to both the Biden and Trump campaigns.'”

This reads to me like nothing but sour grapes from the Kennedy campaign. That won't be a reason for the debate to not happen.

Right now it's irrelevant, but if Kennedy gets a 4th poll at 15%, and  the FEC forces CNN to strike the "on ballots with 270 EVs" criteria, the debate would have to include Kennedy. It's conceivable that the major candidates would simply cancel the debate rather than debate him.

There's a reason why the CoPD has always held its debates under criteria that a third party could clearly, even if only theoretically, meet. Holding a debate under criteria that's impossible for a third party to meet is against federal law.

[oldtimer]

I still would be very surprised to see Trump drop out. He'll find any way to rationalize it, but it would not be helpful to him.

I still disagree. He would be turning down an opportunity to actually have to answer questions and be held to account for them or have them challenged. It would be so much easier if he just did one of his rallies, said something outrageous, and then that slips through the headlines in ways a debate wouldn't.

The Debates on the Terms currently agreed are suicidal for Trump.

Think about it:

No Audience to support Trump.
Anti-Trump Partisan Moderator.

On the CNN debate Trump won't debate Biden, but Jake Tapper in basically a silent interogation room.

From Trump's point of view I'll use any excuse to back out, Kennedy, drug tests, anything but personal reasons.

[Anti-Trump Truth Socialite JD Vance Enjoying Juror]

I see Republicans are giving Biden a boost again by setting expectations incredibly low. Saw the right-wing poll today claiming half of planned debate watchers are expecting Joe Biden to forget where he is. Do Trump’s team not realize this is bad for them? As long as Biden clears the subterranean bar that’s being set for him by Trump and co he’s going to be fine.

[DaleCooper]

I see Republicans are giving Biden a boost again by setting expectations incredibly low. Saw the right-wing poll today claiming half of planned debate watchers are expecting Joe Biden to forget where he is. Do Trump’s team not realize this is bad for them? As long as Biden clears the subterranean bar that’s being set for him by Trump and co he’s going to be fine.

They're thinking very short-term. They're not even thinking of June 27 as a date that's on the horizon. A poll today said that people think Biden can't handle the debate so that's good. That's the extent of their logic.

[emailking]

I just realized there's less time before the debate than has passed since Trump's conviction, wow.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/AlexThomp/status/1801954764831195632

[Eraserhead]

Muting Trump's microphone won't stop him from yelling.

[Attorney General & LGC Deputy Dwarven Dragon]

Muting Trump's microphone won't stop him from yelling.

This. He'll just ensure Tapper's mic picks it up.