2023 NCAA conference realignment (12/20: the PAC-2 join the WCC)

[GeorgiaModerate]

There are a bunch of reports flying around that the Pac-12 is considering expanding by adding San Diego State and SMU, in order to forestall some of its remaining schools (after UCLA and USC leave for the Big 10) being poached by the Big 12 (which is losing Texas and Oklahoma to the SEC, but gaining BYU, Houston, Cincinnati, and UCF).   If this happens, what further moves would it be likely to trigger?

[GeorgiaModerate]

There are now some reports that the "Four Corners" schools (Utah, Colorado, Arizona, and Arizona State) are in talks with the Big 12.  I think we had a similar rumor in last year's realignment mill.  No idea how this would affect the rumored move of SMU and San Diego State to the Pac-12.

https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/big-12-in-contact-with-arizona-arizona-state-colorado-utah-as-pac-12-media-rights-future-remains-uncertain/

[GeorgiaModerate]

Will California Baptist join the WCC, since it's a Christian school? The WCC also has a better television contract with no home broadcast rights on ESPN+.

No, it doesn't align with the values or athletics of the WCC. Gonzaga would prefer fewer conference games and could threaten to leave with expansion.

Seattle University is Catholic, urban and an historical program. This would be the only logical fit if they can better meet WCC standards of play. Currently they are an inadequate replacement for BYU - closer in quality to USD and Santa Clara than San Francisco and LMU. Too much downside risk. Grand Canyon is also a minor candidate if expansion is needed due to their respectable facilities but is also a longshot

California Baptist has a better shot begging the Big West despite not being a public school. They are teetering on an island, and the Big West has the travel geography that a program of CBU's standing can better manage. But I really doubt the Big West wants them either.

Still think Gonzaga going to one of the PAC-12/Big Twelve/Big East seems plausible.

There's absolutely no way (zip, nada, none) the Pac-12 or Big 12 takes a non-football school, regardless of how good they are in basketball.  The Big East would be a slight possibility, but the travel distance from the other schools may make it a non-starter.

[GeorgiaModerate]

In more urgent news, does anyone understand what Cal/Stanford plan to do if the only six valuable schools all leave the conference, now that they appear to be off the Big Ten wishlist?

It was reported yesterday that Boise State, Fresno State and UNLV are not on the Pac-12 expansion list solely because of academics (and instead Colorado State somehow is). It's hard to see this exclusionary behavior being driven by anyone else, and it's almost certain to accelerate their own demise.

Oregon State and Washington State would go MW if they had to, but it's clear Cal/Stanford will not relegate themselves to that future. Football independence? But they have to put other sports somewhere. And I'm not sure which schools they would align themselves with west of the Mississippi. Rice and UC-Davis? Surely this arrangement would not be of interest to SMU any longer.

Seems complicated by them participating in nearly every sport possible.

Stanford should go to the Ivy League and Cal to the Big West. Football can go independent or a G5 affiliate.

Stanford and Cal don't want to be relegated to ESPN+.

It's probably happening anyway if they can't get into the Big 10.

The Pac 12 dies then?

There's precedent for a major conference dying.  Look at what happened to the Southwest Conference.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Big 12 reportedly eyeing Colorado and Memphis: https://247sports.com/article/big-12-expansion-eyes-memphis-substantive-talks-with-colorado-pe-210957842/.  TBH I don't think the Big 12 has a clue on who they're going to get.

[GeorgiaModerate]

And today's rumor is that Colorado is going to the Big 12, but the second team is Arizona, not Memphis.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The original rumor in this thread was that the Pac-12 was going to add SDSU and SMU, so maybe that's finally happening.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/PeteThamel/status/1674872511421358088

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Big Ten has begun preliminary discussions to add Oregon, Washington, Cal and Stanford.

The Big Ten has begun exploratory discussions about expanding membership to 18 or even 20 teams, industry sources have told Yahoo Sports. The schools being considered are Oregon and Washington if the league adds two schools, and Cal and Stanford if it wants to move to 20. All four institutions are currently members of the Pac-12.

The discussions are in the very early stages, sources caution. No decision, including on whether to expand or stay put at 16 teams, has been made or is considered imminent.

Congrats to Cal if true, the biggest winner in all of realignment.

It's weird how all these huge things are happening, while the ACC is just sitting there doing nothing.

I think if they're going to do anything, it'll be poaching Oregon and Washington. They're the best brands left in the Pac-9 (I'm still not used to that).

While you're at it, you might as well add Cal and Stanford because they're excellent academically (something the ACC cares too much about) which would create a western wing of the conference.

That would place the ACC solidly as the 3rd best conference in the nation, increasing the conference's value significantly.

Why would another P5 team want to move to the ACC, which is stuck with a mediocre TV deal until 2036?  I suspect several of its current members would have already bolted if not for the grant-of-rights in their deal.  The only way I can see the ACC expanding in the near term would be to pick up some solid non-P5 programs, e.g. Memphis or UConn.

[GeorgiaModerate]

With all the reshuffling going on, I thought I'd bring back an old post of mine, except I can't find it.   To show how much things have changed, these were the major conferences that existed at the time I started following college football in the late 1960s.

SEC:

Alabama
Auburn
Florida
Georgia
Kentucky
LSU
Mississippi State
Ole Miss
Tennessee
Tulane (I seem to barely remember Tulane leaving the conference in 1966.  I definitely don't remember Georgia Tech, which left in 1964.)
Vanderbilt

ACC:

Clemson
Duke
Maryland
North Carolina
NC State
South Carolina
Virginia
Wake Forest

Big 10 (before they forgot how to count):

Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Michigan
Michigan State
Minnesota
Northwestern
Ohio State
Purdue
Wisconsin

Big 8:

Colorado
Iowa State
Kansas
Kansas State
Missouri
Nebraska
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State

Pac 8:

California
Oregon
Oregon State
Stanford
UCLA
USC
Washington
Washington State

Southwest Conference (now defunct):

Arkansas
Baylor
Rice
SMU
Texas
Texas A&M
TCU
Texas Tech
(Houston joined in 1972.)

Western Athletic Conference (then a respectable football league):

Arizona
Arizona State
BYU
Colorado State
New Mexico
UTEP
Utah
Wyoming

[GeorgiaModerate]

Maybe we should just divide up all the P5 and decent G5 schools into 4 or 5 superconferences in alphabetical order.  It would make about as much sense as what's currently happening.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/JoeJHoyt/status/1689413457798430720

[GeorgiaModerate]

Where will Stanford and Cal go? Crucial schools for Olympic sports.

Either the ACC or AAC.  Oregon State and Wazzu will end up in either the MWC or AAC.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Does Cal and/or Stanford actually get relegated to Conference USA or the Sun Belt?

No, the AAC (which is better than either of those) has already made it clear they’ll take the remaining PAC-4 schools.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Does Cal and/or Stanford actually get relegated to Conference USA or the Sun Belt?

No, the AAC (which is better than either of those) has already made it clear they’ll take the remaining PAC-4 schools.

Is the AAC better than the Mountain West?

Athletically they're comparable.  The AAC has a few "name" academic schools that might make them more attractive to Stanford and Cal.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Might Notre Dame football join the ACC? Might the school just go to another conference altogether?

Why would they?  It would be difficult to top all the advantages they have by being independent.

[GeorgiaModerate]

There have been some jarring moves already, but having two California schools in the Atlantic Coast Conference is just plain wrong.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/PeteThamel/status/1697739655720948003
A later tweet in the thread explains that Army would be a football-only member of the AAC, as Navy is now.  Army and Navy in the same conference would be pretty cool; maybe they can get Air Force too!

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://www.gocomics.com/tankmcnamara/2023/09/02

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/Brett_McMurphy/status/1697630003255455898?ref_src=twsrc%5Etf...

The MW TV deal pays $3 million annually. Nothing makes sense to me anymore. If that is their best option, why not take the Cal/Stanford deal with the ACC and get $12 million a year, or heck, even $6 million for reduced brand value? All I heard was that they can't afford to go forego revenue like the other schools, but now they have no choice. The AAC would have at best matched that annual payout and now that is not even on the table.

The sole option is to expand the P-2 and even then, they would have troublesome, if not impossible, buyouts to bear to add the best AAC squads and likely no TV deal. They seem completely screwed into making nothing and playing nobody.

The AAC is probably not interested in adding them since they pose no serious poaching risk now. USF won't join this Pac-X. Maybe the five westernmost schools have some interest - UTSA, Tulsa, Rice, Memphis and Tulane - but at the end of the day, I am certain that conference pays less than the AAC.

Goodbye PAC!

Bold part confirmed:

The AAC will not expand "westward" after SMU decided to leave for the ACC, commissioner Mike Aresco said Friday.

In a statement, Aresco wished SMU well and updated fans on the AAC's plan for expansion.

"We have known that today’s move was a possibility, which has allowed us time to investigate a number of options, including consideration of the larger group of institutions in the Pacific time zone," the statement said. "We have concluded, however, that the best way to proceed for our outstanding student-athletes is to not look westward. Instead, we plan to focus any expansion efforts on schools that allow for sensible and sustainable competition and student-athlete well-being within our strong geographic footprint. We look forward to continued success as a leading FBS conference."

https://sports.yahoo.com/aac-not-expand-westward-wake-154332225.html

[GeorgiaModerate]

Sorry for bumping without a news development, but I cannot get over how bad the American Athletic Conference is right now. Army would be foolish to join this. This conference will get nothing near the current deal in 8 years. Army and Navy should go independent and negotiate their own deals - their brand far exceeds any of these teams, and it would be better to play a schedule of their choice with SMU out. Memphis needs to get out ASAP if they want to survive. UTSA has a longer leash, but they need to think long and hard about who they want as peers.

Tulane and USF will not have any more value than East Carolina, UAB, Tulsa, UNT and FAU pretty soon, so they missed their slim chance. That's actually an interesting lot of seven teams with a lot of parity - with Charlotte and Rice for the basement (and Temple for the completely stuck lost cause, sucking up a few million dollars a year to be marginally better than UMass).



The Mountain West is looking similarly abysmal with the gap growing between other conferences and its top teams - in addition to the top 6 and bottom 6 within the conference.

I'm not sure Oregon State and Washington State could find six teams that remotely resemble P5 programs to fill out a Pac-12: San Diego State and Memphis are almost there and Boise State and Fresno State might be able to fake it. I don't think UNLV or UTSA or Colorado State can even come close to faking it.

Memphis has been desperately trying to get into a power conference for years.  They thought they would be part of the group added to the Big 12 with Houston, etc.  I read recently they're getting a ton of money from the state and city for upgrades to the football stadium and FedEx Forum, and they've worked hard to improve academically; last year they finally moved up to Carnegie R1 status.

I think the problem with Memphis is not the university or its athletics, but the location (city/metro/media market).  It's just not big enough to be a must-have for a power conference; for a G5 conference, it's fine.  If the school was located in Atlanta or Dallas I think they'd be welcome in a P5.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Mountain West is looking similarly abysmal with the gap growing between other conferences and its top teams - in addition to the top 6 and bottom 6 within the conference.

I'm not sure Oregon State and Washington State could find six teams that remotely resemble P5 programs to fill out a Pac-12: San Diego State and Memphis are almost there and Boise State and Fresno State might be able to fake it. I don't think UNLV or UTSA or Colorado State can even come close to faking it.

I don't think the goal for OSU/WSU here is to rebuild the Pac-12 into a bona fide P5 conference — very little reason to try to go get Memphis or Tulane. Just a nice amicable merger with the Mountain West, and maybe you take the opportunity to shear off some of the worst offenders on the MWC side.

That would still make the Pac-12 a G6 (or G7 if the WAC goes FBS). Gonzaga should be considered if the Pac-12 tries to rebuild if it wants to remain P5.

Gonzaga doesn't play football.

[GeorgiaModerate]

It seems strangely appropriate for Army and Navy football to be in the American Athletic Conference. Now they just need to pick up Air Force!

[GeorgiaModerate]

It's official: Army joins the AAC for football only.

https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/38741191/army-set-join-aac-football-sources-say-navy-game-intact

The annual Army-Navy game will be a nonconference game, and the two service academies will not be scheduled against each other for regular season conference games.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Oregon State and Washington State are nearing an agreement to join the West Coast Conference as affiliate members next year in multiple sports, most notably men's and women's basketball, sources told ESPN, confirming multiple reports.

It is an agreement similar to the one the schools reached with the Mountain West to play six football games against MW teams next year but with a major difference. While the Beavers' and Cougars' games against MW schools in football will not count toward the conference standings, there is an expectation their games will count toward the standings for other sports in the WCC. They are also expected to be eligible to participate in conference tournaments and eligible to represent the WCC in NCAA championship events.

https://www.espn.com/college-sports/story/_/id/39156187/oregon-state-washington-state-agreement-join-west-coast-conference-affiliate-members-sources-say