When will the 538 Odds show the GOP has a 51% chance or better of taking control of the Senate?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ayy back up to 51-49 Dems.  Fivey Fox probably chewed on the wiring, that little sh**t. 

The most absurd thing is the hand wringing over all of this. And obsessed with predictions, and anger with those with contrary crystal balls. Don't hook up with a guy who is too political, my dear, that is my best advice. They have long since lost the ability to see the grays in life, and more importantly, potentially lost the  ability to laugh at one's self, and self deprecate. Who would want to live with that toxic brew, or expose your issue (legal term for rug rats) to that?

Especially since there's no meaningful difference between 50-50 and 51-49 (either way) or really anything closer than about 55-45.  They're all toss-ups, or "dead heats" as 538 has switched to using.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Never thought this would happen but 538 switched it to 51-49 GOP!

(Torie, in Maxwell Smart voice): Missed it by that much!

[GeorgiaModerate]

Anyone else find it nuts the forecast is seemingly changing every few hours? Like what is possibly changing in such little time

     538 tweaking their model might be a factor.

As I recall from an explanation one of the 538 folks gave last cycle: what happens is that each model run does 40,000 simulations.  What it displays is a representative 100 of the 40,000 outcomes -- but not necessarily the same set of 100 each time.  So if the current probabilities are (for example) 50.6 R, 49.4 D, then sometimes it will show 50/50 and other times 51/49.  This is why you can see those minor fluctuations even between runs of the model.