Texas 2022 megathread

[GeorgiaModerate]

So, will Beto get over or under Biden's percentage?

I lean towards under, but given how polarizing Abbott has become and the fact that O'Rourke has overperformed in the past, I wouldn't be entirely shocked if he exceeded Biden's percentage.

I would not be surprised if the margin ends up being very similar to 2018.

I'd be shocked if O'Rourke did that well again, but a single-digit margin certainly isn't implausible at this point.

The Border is completely out of control and O'Rourke wants to give amnesty to everyone who is coming without vetting. Give me a break!

Are you then predicting that Abbott will win by double digits?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ah yes, those famously accurate internals that people were jerking themselves off over:
https://twitter.com/PatrickSvitek/status/1320748939751026690

https://fallacyinlogic.com/hasty-generalization-fallacy-definition-and-examples/

[GeorgiaModerate]

Could this race be closer than Georgia or Florida?

Florida probably, Georgia possibly.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I doubt it's gonna be that large Latino and blk voters and females are just now coming around to Ds like they were always going to do that's why R users are getting nervous about their projection in a red wave that why so many of them left the only polls that have Rs still ahead are Trafalgar and Rassy and that's Fox news but they still have Fetterman and Kelly and Shapiro and WARNOCK ahead

The power of blk and Brown voters and females didn't show up in VA but it did in CA, AK and NY 19 Romney won 60% of the white vote in 2012 and still lost a landslide why because in WI 52/35/2 believe R policies favor the rich not the poor

That's why I still have a wave insurance maps other users don't think outside the box

We have never doubted that you think outside the box.