2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Economist/YouGov tracker ticks up to D+6 (44/38) from D+5 (44/39) last week.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1557458057390694405

[GeorgiaModerate]

Crystal Ball moves MN-01 from Safe R to Likely R.

https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/notes-on-the-state-of-the-primaries-august-10-2022/

[GeorgiaModerate]

Isn't James getting hit for being a carpetbagger in that district too? vs. someone who actually lives there?

The question is how much that will matter in the end. At some point, partisan leanings are just difficult to overcome.

True, but even a little bit might make the difference in a close race.  I'm thinking of the GA-06 special in 2017, when Jon Ossoff was relentlessly attacked for carpetbagging because he lived just outside the district boundary.  I have no doubt that it cost him some votes.  Probably not enough to be decisive (he lost 52-48), but who knows?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Fox News GCB

41-41.

https://static.foxnews.com/foxnews.com/content/uploads/2022/08/Fox_August-6-9-2022_National_Topline_August-11-Release.pdf

It was 41-44 in July.  I believe this is the first Fox GCB poll this cycle not to show R's ahead.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Democrats are now up to +0.5 (43.9-43.4) in the 538 average.

[GeorgiaModerate]

DDHQ moves NC-SEN to tossup: https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/1559213501008056325

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/ShaneGoldmacher/status/1559252440779788289

[GeorgiaModerate]

To be fair, DDHQ has NC at like 61.5% Budd / 38.5% Beasley, which most people would not categorize as a 'tossup'

Right, the issue (as discussed in more detail in the NC-SEN thread) is that DDHQ considers anything less than 65% for the leading candidate to be a tossup, but most of us would probably define a tossup more narrowly.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I want to believe, but I've been scammed by more than enough midterms (and polls in general) to get fully invested. Normally I'd rather say I'd like to see what the polls say in mid October, but even then, during the Trump era there have been some pretty wild polling misses. The correlation between presidential approval rating and some level of midterm losses has been pretty consistent, too. It's hard to square that with these results. Either there is some other dynamic at play, or there is going to be a correction at some point in Biden's approval ratings or the favorable Dem polls.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

The disconnect this year seems to be caused by a significant minority of Democrats who disapprove of Biden (presumably progressives who think he hasn't accomplished enough) but nevertheless plan to vote D in the midterms.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Economist/YouGov stays at D+6 this week, 45/39 vs last week's 44/38.

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/jf179lebaq/econTabReport%20%282%29.pdf

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/frankthorp/status/1560308412704886784

[GeorgiaModerate]

F***! The environment is improving for Republicans again, just like I said it would!

Why are you still here?

[GeorgiaModerate]

The NBC news poll out today has R+2 when it was previously tied back in May. That would seem to be evidence that the Dobbs boost for Democrats was only temporary. How sickening this country is.

It's one data point out of hundreds. So is the Marquette poll with Barnes up 7 and the Fetterman +15 junk.

Doomers live in a world where it is always Monday, raining, and the car has a flat tire.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The NBC news poll out today has R+2 when it was previously tied back in May. That would seem to be evidence that the Dobbs boost for Democrats was only temporary. How sickening this country is.

It's one data point out of hundreds. So is the Marquette poll with Barnes up 7 and the Fetterman +15 junk.

Doomers live in a world where it is always Monday, raining, and the car has a flat tire.

The ignore button is your friend.

I did have him on ignore for quite a while, but when I became a moderator I cleared my ignore list so I wouldn't miss any misbehavior on my boards.  But your suggestion is a very good one for most users.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The NBC news poll out today has R+2 when it was previously tied back in May. That would seem to be evidence that the Dobbs boost for Democrats was only temporary. How sickening this country is.

It's one data point out of hundreds. So is the Marquette poll with Barnes up 7 and the Fetterman +15 junk.

Doomers live in a world where it is always Monday, raining, and the car has a flat tire.

“Doomers” were ones to call BS on Dems winning FLA and NC. “Doomers” thought Biden winning Texas was laughable. “Doomers” laughed their ass off at polls saying Biden +17 in Wisconsin.

Other than my stubborn stance on Georgia…. “Doomers” on here are right.

GOP +2 is a GOP House of 240 seats and a likely takeover of the Senate.

TIED is a GOP House if 230 seats and a Tilt GOP takeover of Senate
Dem +2 is a GOP House of 220-225 seats and a Dem 50/50 Senate or Tilt D 51/49
Dem +3.5 is a tossup House with approximate 220-216 seats and a Dem gain in the Senate
Dem +4 is a Dem house of 225 seats and a Dem 52-48 Senate.

Nonsense, I am going to call the Senate right now for Democrats and I say this as a staunch Republican America First Supporter. Oz is going to lose and Ron Johnson is in a very precarious Position as well. If those two Seats don't turn around soon Democrats will likely maintain control of the Senate.

I can see your point on Pennsylvania. However Wisconsin is laughable - that’s the worst pooled state in the nation. Polls are always way way way off. Johnson wins that seat

We'll see on Wisconsin. Senator Johnson has very high Negatives.

Who would have thought Adam Laxalt having a better chance of winning compared to Blake Masters or Herschel Walker. Certainly not me but that's where we are at the moment.

The Economy in NV is still very bad and Governor Sisolaks draconian COVID-19 Mandates did not help either.

Nevada seems to be the brightest spot for Republicans among the competitive states.  I'm inclined to think both Sisolak and CCM are slight underdogs at the moment, with the caveat that Democrats have usually tended to outperform their polling in the state.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/kkondik/status/1562412514293473280

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/kkondik/status/1562412514293473280

I checked 538 to see what the conventional wisdom on these things is... they have Ryan as a narrow underdog in NY-18 (a Biden +8 district!!) and Molinaro with nearly a 70% chance of winning in NY-19.

I think 538 is trapped by needing polls to change, so absent polls they are behind the curve. The plus model has a bit more than polls but polls are the most important. The idea is to dress it all up as objective when much of this stuff is not amenable to that.

I suspect that 538 was also assuming that Molinaro would win last night's special, which would have made him and not Ryan an incumbent in November.  Kondik in a later tweet said that was a factor in his ratings change; he also teased that there's at least one more ratings change coming later this morning.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://mobile.twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1562475059574235138
!

Interesting.  Based on some of the hints Elliott has been dropping on Twitter, I was assuming their model was going to be quite bearish on D chances.  Apparently I assumed poorly.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Will we have the final results of the Alaska special on the 30th or 31st?

31st, I believe.

[GeorgiaModerate]

TBF you guys also said last time Democrats were poised to have net gains in the House.. So not sorry we're sceptical.

It's quite reasonable to be skeptical, but that cuts both ways.  Neither should you be overconfident.

FTR, I still expect the Republicans to gain seats, but considerably fewer than I thought six months ago.  Right now I think the most likely range is R+5 to R+15, but anything in the wider range from D+5 to R+25 is certainly plausible.  So while I do expect the R's to take the House, I won't be overly surprised if they don't.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1565327523638120451

[GeorgiaModerate]

Three millions of dollars being poured into Ohio in a race that Vance was never in any serious risk of losing is stunning.

Apparently the SLF has a different evaluation of the race than you do.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Three millions of dollars being poured into Ohio in a race that Vance was never in any serious risk of losing is stunning.

Apparently the SLF has a different evaluation of the race than you do.

Internal polling is most of the time less accurate than public polling. Mitch McConnell does not have much more useful intel on this race than we do.

In the case of Ohio, Iowa, Colorado, and other former swing states that have trended quickly, he might be tethered to a time when Ohio was close to the national environment, not the current reality when it's significantly to the right of it. As it stands, Vance will probably win from partisans coming home in the last few months. But McConnell might think that wouldn't be a factor if he doesn't hold Ohio as a strong lean-R state at worst.

I am skeptical this is true.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Yahoo/YouGov: D+5 (45/40) among RV, D+3 (48/45) among those who "definitely will vote".

https://news.yahoo.com/poll-democrats-lead-republicans-among-those-who-say-theyll-definitely-vote-in-midterms-221434935.html