PA-SN 2022 megathread: Shrek vs. The Wizard of Oz

[GeorgiaModerate]

Federalist just came out with a painfully silly attack on Fetterman.

https://thefederalist.com/2022/10/28/john-fettermans-trump-voting-republican-parents-are-card-carrying-democrats/

“We want to tell you something about John Fetterman. He was raised by two Trump-voting Republicans right here in this house in York,” Karl and Susan Fetterman claim in the 30-second video. “Us!”

The problem is that Fetterman’s parents are not Trump supporters or Republicans. According to voting records obtained by The Federalist, Susan and Karl Fetterman have been voting Democrat for at least six years—beginning when the couple registered as Democrats to vote in the 2016 primaries.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_Senate_election_in_Pennsylvania#Democratic_primary

Not sure why this is silly. He had his parents feature in an ad explicitly for his campaign and in that ad they blatantly lied expecting not to get called out on it.

You realize that voting records don't actually show who someone voted for, right?

No joke, there's a girl at my work who continues to spread a lie that she was on some official website showing that multiple ballots were cast in her name for Joe Biden. She says that's proof of voter fraud in 2020. I told her that's not legit, and that she couldn't have pulled up a real website displaying who people voted for. She insists she's right, but when I ask her to display this mystery website she somehow can't find it anymore on google.

It's a waste of time to try and talk reason to such people.  I had one tell me about the conspiracy theory of Pennsylvania getting more absentee ballots returned than were sent out.  This is false (it was comparing ballots sent out in the primary to returns in the general election).  I went on the PA SoS website and showed him the actual numbers; it didn't help.  See the quote in my signature.

[GeorgiaModerate]

PA Senate is like the football Lucy holds, I can't wait to see the site get their hopes up only for them to be dashed again.

Do you get joy out of being cruel?

He seems to be going from one troll persona to another. I've put him on ignore. You probably should too.

"Everyone I don't like is a troll"

Uh, no. You're quite literally trolling in every single thread at this point. Can you just act like a normal human please? Thanks.

Making predictions that run contrary to yours isn’t trolling. I am acting like a normal human who has been ridiculed for months despite his “doom” being based in reality and now early voting data. Will I be trolling on November 8th when I simply make commentary on real results?

I recommend that you carefully read the guidelines in the first post in the results thread.

[GeorgiaModerate]

While my hopes for the overall midterms were all but extinguished, knowing that for sure the House and Senate were gone. I was starting to think Fetterman still had a shot until Emerson came out

You base this on one poll that's within the margin of error?  Take a statistics course.

[GeorgiaModerate]

This is going to be a close race either way, but Fetterman has a lot going against him with the overall mood shifting back to the Republicans. I have a feeling the Republicans may end up doing better than we expect with inflation raging on, savings dwindling, and the stock market crashing.

None of that is Biden's fault, but he's the President, so voters will blame him.

Excuse me?  The Dow gained 14% in October -- its best month since January 1976!

[GeorgiaModerate]

Oprah is responsible for Dr. Oz, yes.

Perhaps this is her way of atoning for that.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Oh, come on.  Anyone who was not going to vote for Fetterman due to affirmative action but wasn't going to turn out, isn't going to be pushed to turn out by Oprah's endorsement.  You're REALLY reaching for that one.

[GeorgiaModerate]

We're almost there folks.  Only a couple more days of this crap. 

(mumbles something about runoffs)

[GeorgiaModerate]

On the downside, the Phillies lost the World Series which will surely leave everyone angry at the party in power, much like the Indians in 2016.

If it makes any difference, *I'm* happy.  

Therefore you should vote for Fetterman.

[GeorgiaModerate]

It's a coin flip race at worst. I'd wait until tomorrow before writing anyone's epitaph.

Tomorrow?  With Pennsylvania still not starting to count absentee ballots until Election Day, I expect a 2020 redux as far as their count.  I'll predict that a winner in this race will be called no earlier than Thursday.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I guess this is what you call a tossup!

17 polls since the debate. 9 nonpartisan, 8 partisan.

Nonpartisan average: Fetterman +3.0 (48.0-45.0)
Partisan average: Oz +2.4 (48.0-45.6)

It’s really more lean R than tossup at this point.

538's average, which includes the partisan polls, is Oz+0.2.  This is Lean?

[GeorgiaModerate]

The debate was actually a net negative for.... Oz

https://twitter.com/DrewLinzer/status/1590827521700139008

That's fascinating.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Eh, or their polling was off. There's no way the final Trump rally was worth 5.5 pts for Fetterman. I honestly don't even think it had that much impact; it's not something that every PA-ian found out about , even.

https://twitter.com/nick_field90/status/1592241480202342400

Even apart from non-response issues, outliers inevitably happen.  That was probably one of them.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Going to be fun looking back at this thread after Oz wins and all the Democrats mocking him in this thread have to eat their words.

How'd that work out for you?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Lol remember how some conservatives wet saying he was a puppet candidate for his wife

His medical condition means that he is really likely to die before he finishes his first term, I  read that average life expectancy is 2 years (Senators though get better healthcare), so it's all about who will the Governor appoint.

I doubt his replacement will have his working class charisma.

Citation needed.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Why was Oz considered a weak candidate? He outperformed Mastriano by 10!

Oz never had a chance from primary night onwards because of the following things:

1.Pennsylvania from past election results likes it's Governors to be Liberal and it's Senators to be Conservative (remember Santorum ?).

2.Oz was upper class, while Fetterman was working class.

3.Oz spent his entire campaign making fun of Fetterman being working class.

4.The primaries hit Oz hard for being a muslim, a big no-no for conservatives as primary results showed.

Oz would have made sense for Governor and Mastriano for Senator from a GOP perspective.

I expect the Democrats would still have won both races.