Arizona megathread

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/CharlotteAlter/status/1572219894468419587

Anyone want to defend this?  Anyone?

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/brahmresnik/status/1573447684152651776

I believe the law allows abortions only to save the life of the mother, no rape or incest exceptions (although I'm not 100% certain of this).

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/rumpfshaker/status/1573837968330088449

Part of a long thread with much more from Liz Cheney, well worth reading.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/rumpfshaker/status/1573837968330088449
Part of a long thread with much more from Liz Cheney, well worth reading.

As I recall, you a former Republican. Is that right? Liz Cheney seems to be having the same evolution in thought that you and other former Republicans on here have had.

Yes.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1575252480824291328

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1575252480824291328

Sigh. Lol

Given that poll is an R+10 sample it's not that bad for the Ds lol

R+10 in terms of registration? Don't Rs still have a pretty big registration advantage in AZ anyways?

Not really. Statewide it’s 35% R, 34% I, 31% D

Huh for some reason I thought the gap was larger.

I think it used to be, but the R's have lost a lot of ground to Independents (and D's have lost a little too, IIRC).

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/jeremyduda/status/1575572208822276096

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1575252480824291328

Sigh. Lol

Given that poll is an R+10 sample it's not that bad for the Ds lol

R+10 in terms of registration? Don't Rs still have a pretty big registration advantage in AZ anyways?

Not really. Statewide it’s 35% R, 34% I, 31% D

Huh for some reason I thought the gap was larger.

I think it used to be, but the R's have lost a lot of ground to Independents (and D's have lost a little too, IIRC).

Its pretty close to where Colorado was when it started to be competitive. At about R+2, Republicans really started to struggle there.

Honestly, Arizona feels quite simillar to Colorado just with a more entrenched conservative/Republican history to it and also Colorado has higher level of education. Both states are dominated by 1 main city (Pheonix and Denver) and then have a secondary city (Tucson and El Paso), and both have notable Hispanic populations as well.

El Paso has moved to Colorado?

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/DillonReedRose/status/1577702662723600386

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/GasBuddyGuy/status/1577728067522498568

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/brahmresnik/status/1577863357918375936

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/jdawsey1/status/1578564844965404673

Isn't that fraud?

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/Adrian_Fontes/status/1579825051733327874

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/hankdeanlight/status/1580256953808261122
https://twitter.com/hankdeanlight/status/1580256958090649601

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/kyledcheney/status/1581064918643580929

[GeorgiaModerate]

Is wbrocks a member of the Kari Lake campaign team? wbrocks keeps posting clips that make me like Kari Lake more, lol

I feel safe in saying that you're not part of his target audience.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Maybe we should ask MSNBC to hire wbrocks as Political Analyst? Seriously ya'll need to stop feeding him. He is a little bit of an attention seeker.

Mr. Pot, I'd like you to meet Mr. Kettle.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/KariLake/status/1582403573811318784
Holy cow. She puts the press into a trance. This woman is something else. Not only will she probably win (and put Arizona's 11 electoral votes back to the GOP in '24) but she probably has a bright national future herself.

Democrats boosted Lake in the primary - as they did many other MAGA candidates - because they were confident that they could beat her in the general. It's backfiring on them now. She certainly was underestimated.

How is it backfiring? lol, I guess everyone will see what they want to see, but Lake is literally handing out flyers and bringing election denial back into the forefront by making flimsy "both sides" arguments.

How is this supposed to help her with Independents?

Also think it's pretty funny how Democrats get the shaft typically in "why are they not talking about the right issues?" Why is Lake bringing out flyers talking about Hillary Clinton 3 weeks out from the election? Is that voters care about? It's clearly more a diversion than anything.

I'm not defending what Lake was doing. What I'm saying is that Democrats boosted Lake because they believed she would be the more beatable candidate in the general election, but this strategy has backfired on them. Lake has been running a strong campaign, while many Democrats are frustrated with Hobbs and believe that her campaign has made a series of unforced errors.

I don't think Robson would be doing any worse than Lake is.

[GeorgiaModerate]

In non-gubernatorial news:

https://twitter.com/maryjpitzl/status/1582851494763634689

[GeorgiaModerate]

Is the thing about "federal only absentee ballots" legit or a nothingburger?

It's a real thing that happened but doesn't seem to be a huge deal. An error in the SOS office caused 6,000 voters to wrongly be sent the federal-only absentee ballot.  They're working to correct it:

https://twitter.com/JenAFifield/status/1583147323726581761

[GeorgiaModerate]

Just recieved my mail-in ballot, I plan on voting straight ticket R obviously. If you are voting by mail make sure you mail it back by the weekend before election day. If you drop it off it will still be counted but a few days after the election (when the races are probably already called). There isn't much fun in that.

If Kari Lake wins, chances are this will be the last time Arizona voters get to do this, especially counting days after election day.

Unlikely, since the governor can't unilaterally change election laws.  But if it happened, the GOP may want to change their tune:

AP: GOP voters told to hold onto mail ballots until Election Day

Republican activists who believe the 2020 election was stolen from former President Donald Trump have crafted a plan that, in their telling, will thwart cheating in this year’s midterm elections.

The strategy: Vote in person on Election Day or — for voters who receive a mailed ballot — hold onto it and hand it in at a polling place or election office on Nov. 8.
...
If enough voters are dissuaded from casting ballots early, it could lead to long lines on Election Day and would push back processing of those late-arriving mailed ballots. Those ballots likely would not get counted until the next day or later.

TBF, Lake is not one of the Republicans encouraging this tactic, although her fellow Arizonan Wendy Rogers is.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/JBontkeABC15/status/1585425784574836737

[GeorgiaModerate]

Everyone in Arizona needs to watch this and share it with your friends and family in the state.

https://twitter.com/60Minutes/status/1586858786274574336

[GeorgiaModerate]

In just another day in Arizona politics:

https://twitter.com/brahmresnik/status/1587195996517171200

https://twitter.com/brahmresnik/status/1587210976129998849

https://twitter.com/brahmresnik/status/1587219437660164097

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1587512825680826369