2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[GeorgiaModerate]

What's the Atlas concensus on that Arizona call?

Fox and AP seem adamant about it, but every other network keeps talking about the shrinking lead every 5 minutes.

Fox and AP are using a data source with precinct-level data that the others don't.  Evidently that data gave them enough confidence to make the call, and stand by it.  Whether that was justified or not is something we can't determine until the final results are in.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1324401299870240769

[GeorgiaModerate]

Does anyone seriously think Biden has a chance in AK? Why aren’t they calling it?

AK doesn't start counting mail ballots until a week after Election Day, and there are enough of them to hypothetically put Biden ahead.  Not that anyone expects this to happen, but given the circumstances it is reasonable for the networks to hold off calling it.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Will NV be called today? or is everyone sh**tting their pants hoping PA does the job for everyone?

NV will not be called today.  PA may be called today, but Biden at this point is certain to win it in the end.  Biden will overtake Trump in GA today too, but the margin is going to be within recount range so they might not call it.  (ABC, for one, has a policy of not calling any state with a margin <1% until the results are official.)

In short: it's really all but over.  Trump's chances are like an ice cube on a hot sidewalk in the summer.  It's melting as we watch, and will soon be gone.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Georgia is going to be extremely close, Biden's lead seems to have slightly expanded in Nevada, and I am still not sure on Penn.

PA is the most sure state for Biden out of all the remaining ones.  Stick a fork in it.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Will NV be called today? or is everyone sh**tting their pants hoping PA does the job for everyone?

NV being called before PA would be terrifying because only AP and Fox have called AZ, but Trump could come back there.

I sincerely hope either PA/GA is called first, or another org calls AZ.

GA would only get Biden to 269.

No, Biden would have 270 due to capturing both NE-2 and ME-2.

Trump will win ME-2.  I believe this has been called by some outlets.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Nate Silver on the 538 blog: "I’m not a decision desk, but I suppose I think Nevada is on the verge of being callable at this point. Two-thirds of the state’s population is in Clark County and Biden is gaining big in Clark County! Not sure I see the route for a Trump comeback."

[GeorgiaModerate]

A bit of an aside, but I think Forsyth may end up around 65-33 Trump (71-24 Trump in 2016) once it's last mail-in votes are added. GeorgiaMod, your 65-35 prediction was pretty close!

What was the margin in the 2018 gubernatorial?

71-28 Kemp.

EDIT: I see forsythvoter posted 70-28.  The official result was 70.54-27.95 (I rounded up and he rounded down).

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/jtlevy/status/1324409692899205120

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/jtlevy/status/1324409692899205120

Could Biden end up with over 5 million of the popular vote?

You mean a PV margin of over 5M?  Yes, he will certainly exceed that.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/jtlevy/status/1324409692899205120

Could Biden end up with over 5 million of the popular vote?

You mean a PV margin of over 5M?  Yes, he will certainly exceed that.

What are we looking at? 7 to 8 million margin in the PV? Could it crack 10M?

7 to 8 is a likely range.  10 would be a big stretch, although not completely impossible.

[GeorgiaModerate]

50,401 ballots outstanding in GA

So Joe needs 64% of them? He will probably end up with a .4% V?

Yeah, about 20K votes or 0.4% is my estimate.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Deputy SoS of Georgia says that the margin-of-victory might be 1,000 votes.  Let's assume that we end up with 4,980,648 total votes cast.  

A margin-of-victory of 1,000 would be 0.0002% (or two ten-thousandths of a percent)

According to my research, that would eclipse Florida 2000 (0.00921%) as the closest state ever (by percentage) in a U.S. Presidential election.  

Mind your decimals.   1K/5M is about 0.0002 as a fraction.  But to change to percent, you need to move the decimal point two places to the right.  It's 0.02%.

(The Florida comparison should have made the original number immediately look funny.  Clearly ~500/6M is a smaller percentage than 1K/5M.)

Signed,

Your friendly neighborhood math pedant.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Prediction from an old election junkie: although this may seem agonizingly slow now, in a few months you'll look back on this time and miss it.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Prediction from an old election junkie: although this may seem agonizingly slow now, in a few months you'll look back on this time and miss it.

Did you vote for Harrison or Cleveland, GM?

Which Harrison?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Prediction from an old election junkie: although this may seem agonizingly slow now, in a few months you'll look back on this time and miss it.

Did you vote for Harrison or Cleveland, GM?

Which Harrison?

The one who faced Cleveland?

Yeah, I meant to type "which time?" (which would have made sense and been much funnier) but my fingers got in the way.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/RyanDEnos/status/1324436536998449158

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1324422855065538561

[GeorgiaModerate]

What about Military ballots in GA?

There are 8,000 outstanding but they need to be received by tomorrow if they are in the mail at all (big if).

On MSNBC they said a military guy was meeting with Trump just now.

Chances Trump is demanding they speed up delivery and/or commit some kind of fraud over ballots in Georgia?

Based on comments by ex-military members and service families I know in Georgia, I wouldn't expect these to be a lifesaver for Trump.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/RightWingWatch/status/1324439091925176327?s=20

Lets see god come down and do something about it. If he doesn't then what can anyone say.

God: "I'll send them a plague!  No, wait..."

[GeorgiaModerate]

GA - Biden down by 12,764 (98% counted)

Of the remaining ~100,512 votes to be counted, Biden only needs to win 56,638 of them - (56.3%)

PA - Biden down by 108,367 (92% counted)

Of the remaining ~560,502 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win 334,500 of them - (59.7%)

That "needs to win" percentage looks like it's dropping a good amount from yesterday.

That's because Biden's been running ahead of his needed pace consistently.  The more he does that, the lower the threshold goes for the remaining votes.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1324456564183453698

[GeorgiaModerate]

LOL:

https://twitter.com/ScottAdamsSays/status/1324444189019402240

Scott, take it from an old card player: no matter how long you stare at a deuce, it ain't gonna turn into an ace.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/1324460508263731202

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/hugolowell/status/1324419978465026059