2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[GeorgiaModerate]

Nate Silver says on the 538 blog that both GA and AZ will post some results around 9pm ET, with AZ (maybe) posting some more about 12:30 am ET.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I'm getting a little annoyed about how much many of my friends are going full-in on rigged election conspiracy theories right now

Yeah I'm seeing this all over social media. Finding ballots randomly in Michigan. And something about sharpie pens spoiling ballots in Arizona? I don't know.

Apparently there was a drop of 100K+ ballots in Michigan that went 100% for Biden.  That seems statistically implausible, but I tend to imagine that there was some sort of mundane sorting explanation rather than a massive conspiracy theory.

I would like to commend you for being consistently level-headed and reasonable.  You're an asset to the forum, and it would be nice to see more of your co-partisans with the same traits.

[GeorgiaModerate]

How can Biden's margin be improving in PA but it has stayed on 85% of results in for so long?

Don't forget new votes are still coming to replace those that are being processed and reported.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Is Nate Silver still posting as if he knows what's happening with the election?

The biggest story out of this election is how 90+% of every poll recorded, was grossly inaccurate, almost to the point where the question has to be asked whether the pollsters are intentionally misleading people as a strategy to suppress the vote in swing states.

Polls were suggesting Biden would win Wisconsin by 8-10 points. Similar with Michigan.

With Florida they were out by 4-5 points too.

You may as well accept polls from random 40 year old dudes in their basement - they would be just as accurate as the current pollsters.

Counterexamples: GA, MN, NH, ME (presidential) ...

Trying to figure out why some state polls were way off and others were close is going to be a very interesting and high-priority project for pollsters in the coming months.

[GeorgiaModerate]

PA just turned dark blue on predictit.

I'm no conspiracy theorist but it's odd that every swing state has held off being called for Trump despite him looking good in most of them, but they've had no issues calling some states early for Biden like Arizona.

It's hilarious PA is being called with Trump so far ahead and with such little vote left to count.

You do understand that PredictIt is a prediction market where people bet on outcomes, not a media outlet, right?  No outlet has called PA for Biden yet, nor will they for some time, I'm sure.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/CourtneyDBryant/status/1324139665285328899

Doesn't seem like the move of a campaign that expects to prevail in the vote count.

[GeorgiaModerate]

NFL fans will understand this:

https://twitter.com/RexChapman/status/1324112964484554754

[GeorgiaModerate]

GA Update: Trump's margin down to 47,000.

Is there any chance Georgia might be called tonight? Or it might end up too close (whether it's for Trump or for Biden)?

No, the margin will be within the recount threshold (one can be requested by a candidate if the margin is less than 0.5%).  I'm guessing about a 20K win for Biden if current trends hold up, which would be about 0.4%.

[GeorgiaModerate]

My wife works in a small business full of MAGA/Qanon types and she says they were all full of anxiety and conspiracy theories today about the Democrats stealing the election.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/W7VOA/status/1324146718250860544?s=20

How did Florida Man end up in Nevada?

They need to use a time zone conversion site.  09:00 PST is 17:00 UTC (= GMT), not 20:00.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/AlexClearfield/status/1324148708754313217

[GeorgiaModerate]

Are we still going to hear from Georgia in about an hour?

Supposedly.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Meclazine's analysis is too pessimistic for Biden in PA.  He's on track to win it comfortably at this point.

[GeorgiaModerate]

From these trends I'm seeing in Arizona, Trump ends up winning by 11,500 votes. If he holds Pennsylvania, NC and GA then Biden is gone.

This race has been like a rollercoaster. Truly.

That roller coaster is on the last few bumps as it comes into the station. The Trump Train ride is about done.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Even if they f—ked up the AZ call (doubt), it’s over:

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1324179823565131777?s=20

It’s not over until Biden hits 270.

Which he will when he wins PA.

When Biden takes the lead in PA, I will have seen enough.

[GeorgiaModerate]

G. Elliott Morris is counting down the PA margin (in K) on his twitter feed. Just posted 186.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Can someone give me a good estimate on how likely Blue Georgia is looking?

Good with Fulton missing a chunk and Augusta and Savannah missing over 10%. The margin is already at Biden -30K before all that.

If you had to guess, how much votes would you say Biden wins or loses by?

I'll say he wins by 20K or bit under.

[GeorgiaModerate]

CNN saying 140,000 left to count in Philly, 28,000 in bucks.

and the key here is: is it 140k left to count as of *this moment*? As in, there could've been like 50K counted overnight that just haven't been reported yet, and that doesn't even reflect any of the 140 that are still left to count.

Note that there are many many outstanding ballots in SE PA outside of Philly, and Biden has been winning absentee in these areas heavily.  There are more than enough votes out for him.

[GeorgiaModerate]

This is why the states needed to ramp up their vote counting.  Even in the closest of elections, and even with VBM, there is no reason EVER for the election results to take more than a day to count.

Trump may steal the election now because of state’s inability to count their votes.

I can't take this anymore.  Someone remind me to take him off ignore after the election.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/BradMossEsq/status/1324368959660056577

Wait for any real information before freaking out (wishful thinking, I know).

[GeorgiaModerate]

I get that conservatives wanted a republican Senate. A republican House. Republican Governor. Republican state legislatures. Buy why the actual f**k would you want this unhinged moron to be your President for another four years?!

The fact that Trump will lose but the GOP kept control of the Senate and gained in the House tells us that a lot conservatives *did* want the first things on your list but not Trump.

I had an email discussion a few weeks ago with an old friend of mine (a conservative/libertarian economist) in which he said that his dream outcome for the election was for Trump to lose every state while the Republicans ended up in control of both houses of Congress. 

[GeorgiaModerate]

Even if Trump actually did get an injunction to stop votes coming in after Election Day, it doesn't change the writing on the wall in PA. It probably means he keeps NC and maybe GA, though.

GA doesn't accept ballots that arrive after election day anyway.

Nope. Court ruling stated that for this election, any ballots postmarked by Election Day and received by tomorrow will be counted. No idea why nobody is talking about these (or the provisionals, for that matter), which combined will likely be north of 20k votes and 70% Democratic.

In GA?

Source?

https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/01/politics/georgia-absentee-ballots-deadline-order/index.html

I'll see you and raise you: https://apnews.com/article/election-2020-virus-outbreak-georgia-general-elections-voting-rights-f7ef69c7f79ddc036a14f76a00a4870d

The full court reinstated the Election Day deadline for receipt.

[GeorgiaModerate]

This is from the 538 blog, with the estimated remaining votes as of earlier this morning (note: this is still a moving target!)

County     Votes      Lean in 2016 relative to state
Chatham  17,157   D+22
Fulton      11,200   D+51
Clayton      7,408   D+75
Gwinnett    7,338   D+23
Forsyth      4,713   R+29
Harris        3,641   R+49
Bryan        3,027   R+38
Laurens     1,797   R+24
Putnam     1,552   R+37
Sumter     1,202   D+51
Cobb           700   D+7
Floyd           682   R+38
Burke          494   D+8
Taylor          456   R+18

Weighted average: D+19.  But don't forget that absentee ballots are running much more D than the above partisan leans (e.g. last I heard, Biden was actually winning Forsyth absentees).

[GeorgiaModerate]

Well it’s 11am ET...where’s GA?

*checks outside* We're still east of Alabama.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Please finish counting the votes in this century!

Is this place just a pro-Biden circlejerk or is there a legitimate chance of him winning all the remaining states?

He's very legitimately likely to win PA, NV, & GA. Unlikely to win NC at this point. All-but-impossible to win AK.

Are you sure? You guys are kind of sounding like the 2016 Clinton supporters before enough states were called.

What's your point?  He noted which states are likely and unlikely for Biden to win at this point (and I agree with all of his assessments).  He wasn't claiming surety for any of them.