WI-SEN 2022 Megathread: Who stole my cheese?

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/JuddLegum/status/1541111696386834433

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1546210215569367040

[GeorgiaModerate]

As someone who watched the 2016 race closely (and has the mental trauma to prove it), Johnson was not a “generic R” then. He has always been really far right and said some really absurd things. He might be hamming it up a bit more this time, but he’s never not been awful. Much as I’d like to see him lose, these sorts of statements aren’t going to be enough to make that happen.

Right on the mark. Johnson has always been considered a "weak" candidate and been underestimated by this forum and others. "Swing voters" don't actually care about ideology, they care about perceived "authenticity".

Well, Johnson is authentically awful, so I guess he has that going for him.

[GeorgiaModerate]

So according to FiveThirtyEight, no third-party candidates have qualified for the general election ballot. Is it too late for them to do so?

According to Ballotpedia, the filing deadline was June 1, so yes.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Morning Consult approval ratings have been a bit dubious, but in the new Q2 senate report, should be noted that he had nearly the worst net approval rating of all 50 senators at -16 (37/53). He was only beat by McConnell (-31).

If that # is anywhere near close, he's in big trouble, even in this environment.

Johnson was even less popular in 2016, and he still won. That doesn't mean it'll happen again for sure, but it's not unprecedented.

Nope.  I looked for actual polls that were still around from 2016 with Johnson's approval, and found two.  

1. An April 2016 poll from St. Norbert College had him at 42 approval, 35 disapproval.  

2. The Morning Consult approval ratings from September 2016 mention Johnson "picked up 1 point to take his net approval rating from 11 points to 12 points" but doesn't list the actual numbers (the Full Results link points to a page that was subsequently updated in post-2016 surveys).

If you can provide a citation for an actual poll that backs up your contention, then do so.  If not, then you should withdraw the claim -- or at the very least, stop making claims without evidence.  This kind of thing is why most people here have little to no respect for your analysis.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Bernie is a Bernie Bro Socialist.

Get ready to lose dems!

This take is brought to you by the Department of Redundancy Department.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/HeartlandSignal/status/1554606259596320770

Is Johnson trying to lose?

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://host2.adimpact.com/admo/viewer/2d7c9a36-8132-467d-8aab-77346e40ffc6

This ad of Barnes praising the squad and talking about driver license for illegal immigrants is why I always thought he was longshot against Johnson. This is a Bernie acolyte running in a state Biden barely won. Johnson will make this race a referendum on Barnes and he will win in the end.

Yes, Barnes was not the vehicle capable of taking advantage of Johnson’s weaknesses and extremism because he has his weaknesses of his own on that front. Maybe I’m wrong, but I expect Johnson to scare enough people to win again.

So voters are okay with Johnsons extremism but not a few of Barnes more liberal talking points? Come on now.

Unfortunately, the media has an insane double standard when it comes to how extreme Democrats are versus Republicans. That's what will allow Johnson to win a third term. That, and the national environment.

About that national environment thing...

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1558095352485511170

[GeorgiaModerate]

This is sickening. But I guess it's just like the deferrals in Never Let Me Go - it's easiest to come to terms with Barnes having no chance if you understand that he never had a chance. We didn't lose anything.

Your dooming is so predictable and tiresome. 

[GeorgiaModerate]

Marcus Flowers has consistently outraised every other House candidate in Georgia this year, and it might make him lose by 30% instead of 40.  Although (as Adam Griffin, I think, pointed out) it's not a complete waste of money.  If he turns out more Democratic votes than usual in the 14th, it helps in the statewide races.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Play nice.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Who Stole My Cheese?

[GeorgiaModerate]

[natural disaster hits major city]

how will this affect poll

My first thought was the appropriate place for a tornado warning would be a rally for Oz.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/jackiekcalmes/status/1580259357924917248

Newspaper endorsements tend not to have much effect, although in a very close race they might be significant.  But this is an absolutely blistering editorial and worth a read.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Any of you Wisconsin folks watching the debate tonight?  I just saw a few tweets about it.

https://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1580709073053691905
https://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1580709985608048640

[GeorgiaModerate]

I hate the "say something nice about your opponent" tactic.

"He's wearing a very nice suit."

[GeorgiaModerate]

I've split the side discussion on election fairness etc. into its own thread.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Barnes was the Cal Cunningham and Bill Nelson of this cycle, an idiot who blew a winnable race and burned the party.

If this race turns out to be as close as it looks right now, there'll be plenty of blame on Barnes. I will say this, though - it shows just how effective racism is as a campaign strategy. Of course, it's not like that's news, just look at 2016.

It has to do with a spooky black man from crime infested Milwaukee doesn’t pull as many votes outstate as boring, white former teacher.

My impression from some of my Wisconsin relatives is that "from Milwaukee" is a bigger problem than "black man" for a lot of outstate voters.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Given how close it was in the end, another candidate may actually have won. Am I the only one seeing this as a missed opportunity?

Have you read this thread?