New Hampshire Primary Thread (polls close at 6-7 CT)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Love to read analysis based on 30 early votes out of an expected 250k or so.

This is definitely the place to come for it.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Regarding the NH college residency, I've also seen this:

https://twitter.com/HolmesLybrand/status/1227366607132995592

Could someone local to NH give us the real story?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Looking like a Pete upset. Only 11% are 18-29. Yikes for Bernie and most of the voters who vote after 6 tend to be people who work which are older.

Nah, young people often vote later.  We saw that in the Iowa entrance polls, and in previous NH primaries as well.  I believe the 18-29 group jumped significantly from the early exits in 2016.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Chris Matthews is talking about Klobuchar making it sound as though Klobuchar may come in 2nd behind Bernie (and he has seen early exits).

I'll believe it when I see it, but that would be a huge blow for Buttigieg (and a huge plus for Klobuchar, of course).

[GeorgiaModerate]

Looking like a Pete upset. Only 11% are 18-29. Yikes for Bernie and most of the voters who vote after 6 tend to be people who work which are older.

CNN just said Klobuchar giving Sanders a run for his money. Buttigieg nowhere to be found.

Wouldn't it be something if she came in first?  THAT would shake up the race!

[GeorgiaModerate]

Looking like a Pete upset. Only 11% are 18-29. Yikes for Bernie and most of the voters who vote after 6 tend to be people who work which are older.

CNN just said Klobuchar giving Sanders a run for his money. Buttigieg nowhere to be found.

Lets add some context to this. They asked 50ish people in a Concord precinct and it was Sander-Klob-Pete in that order, with the top two close.

50ish as in approximately 50 people, or people about 50 years old?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Looking like a Pete upset. Only 11% are 18-29. Yikes for Bernie and most of the voters who vote after 6 tend to be people who work which are older.

CNN just said Klobuchar giving Sanders a run for his money. Buttigieg nowhere to be found.

Wouldn't it be something if she came in first?  THAT would shake up the race!

She won't.

Oh, I'm skeptical that she'll even make it to second place.  But it's fun to think about such unexpected, disruptive outcomes.

[GeorgiaModerate]

538 live blog: https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/new-hampshire-primary-2020/

[GeorgiaModerate]

If Biden does flame out, it's going to remind me a lot of another candidate who seemed the obvious front-runner beforehand, but never took off: Rudy Giuliani in 2008.

(And I supported both of them.  Was it something I said?)

[GeorgiaModerate]

something HAPPEN

Patience.  I guarantee you we'll get results a lot faster from NH than from Iowa.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Polls closed 10 minutes ago. NYT gives Sanders a 68% chance of winning.

That's the initial value based solely on the available polling, per Nate Cohn.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Top issues climate change and health care smh my top 3 the economy,  the economy and the economy

Perhaps you should add basic counting.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1227388885753323520

[GeorgiaModerate]

Republican results per DDHQ:

Donald J. Trump (R-inc) 85.44%
Bill Weld 9.81%
Other 3.31%
Joe Walsh 1.44%

I'd love for Trump to get under 90%

And Weld to get over 10%, which is the viability threshold for delegates.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/StuPolitics/status/1227390984251637760

[GeorgiaModerate]

The NYT Needle has been ticking down from Bernie a bit...currently at about 63% for him, 29% for Pete, 5% for Amy.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/mollyhc/status/1227402560966926336

[GeorgiaModerate]

What are the odds the Culinary Union endorses Klobuchar days before the Nevada Caucus now?

I could definitely see that happening, since Biden seems kaput.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Well, after no winnowing from Iowa, it looks like there will be a lot of it from NH.  Four person race now?  (Sanders, Buttigieg, Klobuchar, Bloomberg)

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1227408468019220480

[GeorgiaModerate]

It is going to be UGLY if Buttigieg does end up pulling off this win.

It'll be a slaughterfest.

You can't spell slaughter without laughter.

Or "ugh".

[GeorgiaModerate]

Bloomberg and Trump have got to be loving this. A muddled primary.

To be fair, Democrats laughed their way through the GOP primary in 2016, too. Be careful what you laugh for.

Yeah I'm so worried. Your party can't even run a caucus and the frontrunner is a 80 year old socialist.

Some of you are acting just like overconfident Democrats in 2016 who were delighted to be facing Trump.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Sanders - 26%
Buttigeig - 24%
Klobuchar - 19%
Warren - 13%
Biden 9%
Gabbard - 3%
Yang - 3%
Steyer 2%
Bennet - 1%
Others - 1%

So, my prediction was almost spot on out side warren.

Very good!  I also had Sanders 26, Buttigieg 24, but underestimated Klobuchar and overestimated Biden.  I thought both of them and Warren would all be clustered in the 12-15 range.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1227709609114251266