Trump approval ratings thread 1.5

[GeorgiaModerate]

Presented without comment:

Zogby, May 2-9, 852 LV

Approve 51
Disapprove 48

[GeorgiaModerate]

Morning Consult/Politico, May 10-12, 1995 RV (1-week change)

Approve 41 (-2)
Disapprove 56 (+5)

Strongly approve 22 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 43 (+3)

Vote to reelect Trump?

Definitely Trump 27 (nc)
Probably Trump 10 (nc)
Probably someone else 7 (nc)
Definitely someone else 48 (+2)

GCB (no prior): D 43, R 37

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Economist/YouGov, May 12-14, 1500 adults including 1244 RV (1-week change)

Adults:

Approve 39 (-3)
Disapprove 50 (+2)

Strongly approve 24 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 40 (+3)

2020: Generic D 43 (+4), Trump 34 (nc)

RV:

Approve 44 (-1)
Disapprove 53 (+1)

Strongly approve 29 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 45 (+2)

2020: Generic D 50 (+3), Trump 39 (+1)

[GeorgiaModerate]

YouGov's daily snapshots are VERY noisy.  I recommend only using their weekly tracker for trends.

[GeorgiaModerate]

YouGov's daily snapshots are VERY noisy.  I recommend only using their weekly tracker for trends.

They are noisier because of smaller sample, 1500 vs 1000, but the difference should NOT be VERY big. It is not a magic.

Look at the data over a reasonable period.  The dailies are much noisier than the weeklies.  There must be a difference in methodology between the two, but I don't know what it is.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Pennsylvania: Quinnipiac, May 9-14, 978 RV

Approve 42
Disapprove 54

Trump +2 (vs O'Rourke) to -11 (vs Biden) in GE matchups.

[GeorgiaModerate]

OK, to check my own impressions on the relative noisiness of the YouGov polls, I plotted their daily Trump approval ratings for the last month.  This is the rating among adults from 538's database.



Weekly approval among adults in the same time period was 41, 42, 42, 42, 39.

You can decide for yourself which one is noisier.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/RonBrownstein/status/1128771952083066880

As many others have pointed out, the economy is only a campaign issue when it's bad.  When it's good, other issues take priority with the average voter.

[GeorgiaModerate]

OK, to check my own impressions on the relative noisiness of the YouGov polls, I plotted their daily Trump approval ratings for the last month.  This is the rating among adults from 538's database.



Weekly approval among adults in the same time period was 41, 42, 42, 42, 39.

You can decide for yourself which one is noisier.

Plot the binomial given that Trump's "true" approval is 42% and 1000 voters.

n=1000
p=0.42
print numpy.random.binomial(n, p, 20)/10

gave me

[44 44 41 42 39 43 40 39 42 41 44 40 40 41 41 44 43 43 42 44]

Noisy enough? Stat 101.

I think you've just (inadvertently?) supported the point I was trying to make.  Yes, that kind of noise is quite natural in a random variation.  And that's exactly why people shouldn't be keen on pointing out a daily jump from 41 to 45, as a certain person did upthread. 

YouGov's weekly results have a flatter trend; maybe this is due to some methodological difference, maybe not.   To me, that makes them more useful than looking at daily fluctuations.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/StuPolitics/status/1128802279983919105
I haven't found a link to the actual poll.  Link.  Last month they were at 45/51.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Wasn’t someone here extrapolating up from his bump to posit Trump at 50% on Election Day? LOL.

I heard they also bought heavily into the stock market when the DJIA hit 26,900.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Hart Research for National Security Action (D), April 23-27, 1205 LV

Approve 44
Disapprove 56

Lots of questions on national security and foreign policy.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Fluctuations in daily trackers aren't worth getting too excited about, but it may be worth keeping an eye on Rasmussen for the next few days.  They've been in the 47%-53% approval range since the end of the shutdown, but Thursday it dropped to 45, stayed there Friday, and dropped again to 44 today.  I believe they use a 3-day rolling average, so it's possible they just got one really bad day for Trump, but it's worth watching the rest of this week.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/trump_administration/trump_approval_index_history

[GeorgiaModerate]

Newest Rasmussen poll has Trump

Approve 44%
Disapprove 54%

How did this happen? It's Rasmussen.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/trump_administration/trump_approval_index_history

That's yesterday's (see my comments upthread).  He bounced back a bit today to 46/53.

[GeorgiaModerate]

ARG monthly economic survey, May 17-20, 1100 adults

Approve 40 (+1)
Disapprove 56 (-1)

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2622

Quinnipiac University, 1,078 RV, MAY 16-20.

38 (-3)
57!!! (+2)


So Rasmussen did, indeed, show the trend. Who would believe that? Rasmussen!

The nation's economy is "excellent," 22 percent of American voters say in a Quinnipiac University National Poll today, the highest "excellent" rating for the economy. Another 49 percent of voters say the economy is "good." The total 71 percent for "excellent" and "good" is the highest total number for American voter attitudes on the economy in almost 18 years.

Some 52 percent of American voters say they are better off financially today than they were in 2016, while 21 percent say they are worse off and 23 percent say they are the same.

But American voters give President Donald Trump a negative 38 - 57 percent approval rating, compared to a negative 41 - 55 percent approval in a May 2 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University National Poll.

American voters give Trump mixed grades for his handling of the economy as 48 percent approve and 45 percent disapprove. He gets negative grades for handling other issues:
37 - 58 percent for handling foreign policy;
39 - 53 percent for handling trade;
40 - 50 percent for handling the nation's policy toward China;
37 - 47 percent for handling the nation's policy toward Iran.
Voters say 48 - 40 percent the president's trade policies are bad for the U.S. economy, and say 44 - 36 percent that these policies are bad for their personal financial situation.

FAKE NEWS!

Also:

In the 2020 general election for president, if Donald Trump is the Republican
candidate, would you definitely vote for him, consider voting for him, or would you
definitely not vote for him?

Definitely yes 31 (-2)
Consider 12 (-1)
Definitely no 54 (+2)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Monmouth, May 16-20, 802 adults including 719 RV (1-month change)

Adults:

Approve 40 (nc)
Disapprove 52 (-2)

RV:

Approve 41 (+1)
Disapprove 52 (-2)

[GeorgiaModerate]

CBS News, May 17-20, 1101 adults

Approve 41
Disapprove 52

Very similar to the Monmouth results.

[GeorgiaModerate]

CBS News, May 17-20, 1101 adults

Approve 41
Disapprove 52

Very similar to the Monmouth results.

The change from their last poll from January:

Approve 41 (+5)
Disapprove 52 (-7)

It's a swing of 12!
Trumpomentum!  

You mean the January during which the government was shut down and Trump's approval rating cratered?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Morning Consult/Politico weekly tracker, May 17-19, 1995 RV

Approve 42 (+1)
Disapprove 56 (nc)

Strongly approve 23 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 44 (+1)

Vote to relect Trump or for someone else?

Definitely Trump 27 (nc)
Probably Trump 9 (-1)
Probably someone else 6 (-1)
Deinitely someone else 49 (+1)

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, May 18-21, 1500 adults including 1113 RV

Adults:

Approve 41 (+2)
Disapprove 51 (-1)

Strongly approve 23 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 40 (nc)

2020: Generic D 40 (-3), Trump 34 (nc)

RV:

Approve 44 (nc)
Disapprove 52 (-1)

Strongly approve 27 (-2)
Strongly disapprove 45 (nc)

2020: Generic D 48 (-2), Trump 38 (+1)

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, May 26-28, 1500 adults including 1114 RV

Adults:

Approve 42 (+1)
Disapprove 49 (-2)

Strongly approve 25 (+2)
Strongly disapprove 39 (-1)

2020: Generic D 40 (nc), Trump 36 (+2)

RV:

Approve 44 (nc)
Disapprove 52 (-2)

Strongly approve 29 (+2)
Strongly disapprove 44 (-1)

2020: Generic D 49 (+1), Trump 39 (+1)

GCB: D 48, R 39 (no prior)

[GeorgiaModerate]

CNBC All-America Economic Survey, May 22-26, 800 adults (change from March)

Approve 40 (nc)
Disapprove 50 (+1)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Critical Insights - Maine (RV):

Approve - 34%
Disapprove - 58%

That’s terrible although this poll might be Dem-friendly. He better hope he doesn’t perform this poorly on Election Day.

Their Fall 2018 survey had Trump at 41/50.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://cdn.cnn.com/cnn/2019/images/06/01/rel7a.-.trump,.investigations.pdf

CNN: May 28-31, 2019


Adults:
43% (nc compared to April 25-28)
52% (nc)

RV:
43% (-1)
53% (nc)

For what it is worth:
RV who are very enthu about pres vote:  48/50
RV who are less enthu about pres vote: 31/60



Favs:
45% (nc)
53% (-1)


Impeach:
41% (+4)
54% (-5)

Those changes are all at the noise level except for the impeachment question.  Interesting.