Trump approval ratings thread 1.5

[GeorgiaModerate]

Critical Insights - Maine (RV):

Approve - 34%
Disapprove - 58%

That’s terrible although this poll might be Dem-friendly. He better hope he doesn’t perform this poorly on Election Day.

Their Fall 2018 survey had Trump at 41/50.

[pbrower2a]

Critical Insights - Maine (RV):

Approve - 34%
Disapprove - 58%

That’s terrible although this poll might be Dem-friendly. He better hope he doesn’t perform this poorly on Election Day.

Their Fall 2018 survey had Trump at 41/50.

Maine, close in 2016, will not be close in 2020.

Yes, I know that it is possible for an incumbent President to thoroughly tank in a couple of states that one barely won or barely lost when elected  in the next election and still win nationwide. Think of how badly Obama lost Indiana and Missouri in 2012. But Obama had more cushion, and he still won most of his bare wins of 2008 in 2012. Trump has practically no cushion.

I look at the arguable swing states as AZ, FL, IA, MI. PA, NC, and WI. Iowa doesn't figure, but any theree of the other states lose the election for Trump -- and two of the st+ates flip the election to the Democrat if  if one of them is Florida.
 

Senator Susan Collins' approval is now barely underwater at 41-42 in approval. It is probably that the vote for Judge Drunk-enough has taken her down. Sure, disapproval is still manageable, but it looks as if much of the approval that she once had as an alleged moderate has become 'undecided'  That is how electoral losses begin.

Meanwhile, approval for Senator Angus King is at 57% (57-22), which is a nice place to be before an election. It's about where Susan Collins used to be.

Trump, net approval positive -- raw approval

55% and higher
50-54%
under 50%

tie (white)

Trump, net negative approval -- raw approval

43-49% with disapproval under 51% if approval 45% or higher
40-42%, or under 45% if disapproval is over 51%
under 40%




[/quote]

[I Can Now Die Happy]

Take a stand against #Donaldophobia !!!!!!

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Of course, The Hill keeps bragging that Trump has his best approvals in 2 years.

The Hill is a joke.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://cdn.cnn.com/cnn/2019/images/06/01/rel7a.-.trump,.investigations.pdf

CNN: May 28-31, 2019


Adults:
43% (nc compared to April 25-28)
52% (nc)

RV:
43% (-1)
53% (nc)

For what it is worth:
RV who are very enthu about pres vote:  48/50
RV who are less enthu about pres vote: 31/60



Favs:
45% (nc)
53% (-1)


Impeach:
41% (+4)
54% (-5)

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://cdn.cnn.com/cnn/2019/images/06/01/rel7a.-.trump,.investigations.pdf

CNN: May 28-31, 2019


Adults:
43% (nc compared to April 25-28)
52% (nc)

RV:
43% (-1)
53% (nc)

For what it is worth:
RV who are very enthu about pres vote:  48/50
RV who are less enthu about pres vote: 31/60



Favs:
45% (nc)
53% (-1)


Impeach:
41% (+4)
54% (-5)

Those changes are all at the noise level except for the impeachment question.  Interesting.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

https://cdn.cnn.com/cnn/2019/images/06/01/rel7a.-.trump,.investigations.pdf

CNN: May 28-31, 2019


Adults:
43% (nc compared to April 25-28)
52% (nc)

RV:
43% (-1)
53% (nc)

For what it is worth:
RV who are very enthu about pres vote:  48/50
RV who are less enthu about pres vote: 31/60



Favs:
45% (nc)
53% (-1)


Impeach:
41% (+4)
54% (-5)

Americans are idiots.

[Annatar]

From trump approval among enthusiastic and less enthusiastic categories it’s possible to deduce that 70% of registered voters say they are very enthusiastic to vote and 30% say they are less enthusiastic. We might get 90% of registered voter’s voting next year based off those numbers, it was 87% in 2016.

[pbrower2a]

I was polled in Michigan -- Presidency, Senate, Congress, and the "Green New Deal".

[GeorgiaModerate]

North Carolina: Emerson, May 31-June 3, 932 RV

Approve 41
Disapprove 52

Trump also has terrible head-to-head results in this poll.  I'm somewhat skeptical about the sample, which seems too highly educated (54% with a college degree).

[pbrower2a]

North Carolina: Emerson, May 31-June 3, 932 RV

Approve 41
Disapprove 52

Trump also has terrible head-to-head results in this poll.  I'm somewhat skeptical about the sample, which seems too highly educated (54% with a college degree).

It doesn't change the map. That said, there are other points worthy of consideration:Republican Senator Thom Tillis appears to be in a vulnerable position facing re-election against potential Democratic opponent, State Senator Erica Smith, who leads Tillis 46% to 39%, with 15% of voters undecided. Neither does the polling from Michigan (see above).

In the Governor’s race, the incumbent Democrat Roy Cooper leads his potential Republican opponent Lt. Governor Dan Forest, 52% to 38%, with 10% undecided.

(common noun decapitalized)

Ouch, if you are a Republican.

Issues:

When asked about recent abortion legislation in the states of Alabama, Georgia and Missouri, a majority of voters (56%) oppose North Carolina passing similar restrictions, with 32% supporting such legislation. 12% of voters are unsure on the subject. Republicans buck the trend with 56% in support of similar legislation, while 29% of Independents and 14% of Democrats support similar legislation. There is no difference based on gender.

On international relations, a majority of voters (51%) oppose sending troops to Iran, with 17% supporting sending troops, and 32% unsure on this issue. There is little support for troop intervention at the present time, with Democrats and Independents opposing sending troops by  6 to 1. Republicans are split, with 30% in support and 27% opposed, 42% are undecided on sending the troops to Iran question.

Glengariff poll, Michigan, for WDIV-TV (NBC-4, Detroit) and the Detroit News. Likely voters:



 

Every Democrat leads Trump in a binary choice in Michigan, but especially Biden and Sanders:



Impeachment?



Not yet.

https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/politics/2019/06/05/amash-presidential-bid-hurts-biden-michigan/1331256001/

....................

Amash is far better known in parts of Michigan, as he is from the Grand Rapids area. I see Michigan going to Biden about as it did for Obama in 2008 if one does not consider conservative or libertarian alternatives as choices in Michigan, or like it did for Reagan against Carter in 1980 with such a conservative or libertarian alternative. Obama in 2008 was much more impressive than Reagan in 1980 in Michigan.

Although matchups between Trump and Democrats other than Biden and Sanders give wider disparities than do those with lesser-known opponents, this may reflect name recognition better than anything else. Whoever wins the Democratic nomination for President will have  name recognition -- fast.

If you were wondering whether I was polled for this one: no. That is another poll.


Texas: Quinnipiac.

President Donald Trump is locked in too-close-to-call races with any one of seven top Democratic challengers in the 2020 presidential race in Texas, where former Vice President Joseph Biden has 48 percent to President Trump with 44 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

Other matchups by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University Poll show:

    President Trump at 46 percent to Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren at 45 percent;
    Trump at 47 percent to Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders at 44 percent;
    Trump at 48 percent to former U.S. Rep. Beto O'Rourke with 45 percent;
    Trump with 46 percent to South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg's 44 percent;
    Trump at 47 percent to California Sen. Kamala Harris at 43 percent;
    Trump with 46 percent and former San Antonio Mayor Julian Castro at 43 percent.

https://poll.qu.edu/texas/release-detail?ReleaseID=2625

...When one is basically tied in a state that has typically straddled 400 electoral votes for a Democratic nominee for about thirty years, one is in deep trouble as a Republican. 

Trump, net approval positive -- raw approval

55% and higher
50-54%
under 50%

tie (white)

Trump, net negative approval -- raw approval

43-49% with disapproval under 51% if approval 45% or higher
40-42%, or under 45% if disapproval is over 51%
under 40%

[GeorgiaModerate]

Morning Consult/Politico weekly tracker, May 31-June 2, 1997 RV

Approve 43 (+1)
Disapprove 54 (-2)

Strongly approve 23 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 42 (-2)

If the 2020 presidential election were held today, would you definitely vote to re-elect Donald Trump, probably vote to re-elect Donald Trump, probably vote for someone else or definitely vote for someone else?

Definitely Trump 27
Probably Trump 10
Probably someone else 8
Definitely someone else 47

GCB: D 45, R 36

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, June 2-4, 1500 adults including 1192 RV

Adults:

Approve 42 (nc)
Disapprove 50 (+1)

Strongly approve 24 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 37 (-2)

2020: Generic D 40 (nc), Trump 36 (nc)

RV:

Approve 45 (+1)
Disapprove 53 (+1)

Strongly approve 29 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 42 (-2)

2020: Generic D 46 (-3), Trump 41 (+2)

GCB: D 45 (-3), R 41 (+2)

[Bandit3 the Worker]

The Republicans have no chance of retaking the House.

[Gass3268]

Here is Morning Consults 50 state approval poll for May:

Source

[Person Man]

Here is Morning Consults 50 state approval poll for May:

Source

It really doesn't change that much, does it?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Gallup, May 15-30, 1017 adults (prior poll May 1-12)

Approve 40 (-2)
Disapprove 55 (+3)

[pbrower2a]

Remember: I do not mix Morning Consult polling with other statewide polling.

Net approval

-10 or more severe
-5 to -9
-1 to -4
tie -- white
+1 to +4
+5 to +9
+10 or higher

Now how does President Trump win?

[American2020]

CNN Poll: Rising share expect Trump to win in 2020

A majority of voters (55%) think President Donald Trump will win a second term. Back in December, only 44% of voters believed he would win a second term.

It’s an interesting turnaround to be sure, but, while this measure is fun to look at, it hasn’t been particularly telling. 

Back in 1991, George H.W. Bush was basically a shoo-in for re-election in 1992, if you believed Americans. When asked by the Pew Research Center who was most likely to win the next presidential election, Bush or his Democratic opponent, 76% of Americans said Bush. Bush, of course, went on to lose that election to Democrat Bill Clinton.

Americans got it wrong four years later, too. In 1995, just 24% of Americans told the CNN/Time poll that they thought Clinton would be re-elected. Clinton would end up winning rather easily.

Still, George W. Bush and Barack Obama were favored to win a year out from their re-election bids: Bush, with 63% of Americans thinking he would win, and Obama, at 50%.

https://www.cnn.com/2019/06/05/politics/cnn-poll-trump-prediction-economy-issues/index.html

[American2020]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1136327105506095105

[Bandit3 the Worker]

CNN Poll: Rising share expect Trump to win in 2020

A majority of voters (55%) think President Donald Trump will win a second term. Back in December, only 44% of voters believed he would win a second term.

It’s an interesting turnaround to be sure, but, while this measure is fun to look at, it hasn’t been particularly telling. 

Back in 1991, George H.W. Bush was basically a shoo-in for re-election in 1992, if you believed Americans. When asked by the Pew Research Center who was most likely to win the next presidential election, Bush or his Democratic opponent, 76% of Americans said Bush. Bush, of course, went on to lose that election to Democrat Bill Clinton.

Americans got it wrong four years later, too. In 1995, just 24% of Americans told the CNN/Time poll that they thought Clinton would be re-elected. Clinton would end up winning rather easily.

Still, George W. Bush and Barack Obama were favored to win a year out from their re-election bids: Bush, with 63% of Americans thinking he would win, and Obama, at 50%.

https://www.cnn.com/2019/06/05/politics/cnn-poll-trump-prediction-economy-issues/index.html

Well into 1992, the media was engaged in a 3-year-long coronation ceremony for Bush's second term.

[ProudModerate2]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1136327105506095105

Is it just me, or is trump only "behind" Biden in those numbers?

[Progressive Pessimist]

CNN Poll: Rising share expect Trump to win in 2020

A majority of voters (55%) think President Donald Trump will win a second term. Back in December, only 44% of voters believed he would win a second term.

It’s an interesting turnaround to be sure, but, while this measure is fun to look at, it hasn’t been particularly telling. 

Back in 1991, George H.W. Bush was basically a shoo-in for re-election in 1992, if you believed Americans. When asked by the Pew Research Center who was most likely to win the next presidential election, Bush or his Democratic opponent, 76% of Americans said Bush. Bush, of course, went on to lose that election to Democrat Bill Clinton.

Americans got it wrong four years later, too. In 1995, just 24% of Americans told the CNN/Time poll that they thought Clinton would be re-elected. Clinton would end up winning rather easily.

Still, George W. Bush and Barack Obama were favored to win a year out from their re-election bids: Bush, with 63% of Americans thinking he would win, and Obama, at 50%.

https://www.cnn.com/2019/06/05/politics/cnn-poll-trump-prediction-economy-issues/index.html

This might actually be a good thing because more voters who didn't take him seriously last time very well could this time and realize how important it is to vote, especially if they dislike him.

[ON Progressive]

TN-Vanderbilt/SSRS:
Approval 54%
Disapproval 44%

https://www.vanderbilt.edu/csdi/testing/spring_2019_toplines.pdf

[pbrower2a]

Tennessee rarely gets polled.

TN-Vanderbilt/SSRS:
Approval 54%
Disapproval 44%

https://www.vanderbilt.edu/csdi/testing/spring_2019_toplines.pdf

Tennessee should be one of Trump's strongest states. This is tepid. He will almost certainly win it, but not by the 61-35 margin by which he trounced Hillary Clinton in 2016. I'd guess about 56-44, still a small double-digit margin.

This is consistent with the President losing about 5% support nationwide, and with otherwise-inexplicably bad approval ratings for the President in neighboring Georgia and North Carolina.  

Trump, net approval positive -- raw approval

55% and higher
50-54%
under 50%

tie (white)

Trump, net negative approval -- raw approval

43-49% with disapproval under 51% if approval 45% or higher
40-42%, or under 45% if disapproval is over 51%
under 40%