Trump approval ratings thread 1.5

[GeorgiaModerate]

Wasn’t someone here extrapolating up from his bump to posit Trump at 50% on Election Day? LOL.

I heard they also bought heavily into the stock market when the DJIA hit 26,900.

[pbrower2a]

Wasn’t someone here extrapolating up from his bump to posit Trump at 50% on Election Day? LOL.

I heard they also bought heavily into the stock market when the DJIA hit 26,900.

I bought in in 2009, but I would have sold out a year ago. I had to sell out earlier when my father went into a nursing home, and since then I have been poor in a culture that values nothing other than material gain and indulgence instead of the people who make such possible.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Hart Research for National Security Action (D), April 23-27, 1205 LV

Approve 44
Disapprove 56

Lots of questions on national security and foreign policy.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Fluctuations in daily trackers aren't worth getting too excited about, but it may be worth keeping an eye on Rasmussen for the next few days.  They've been in the 47%-53% approval range since the end of the shutdown, but Thursday it dropped to 45, stayed there Friday, and dropped again to 44 today.  I believe they use a 3-day rolling average, so it's possible they just got one really bad day for Trump, but it's worth watching the rest of this week.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/trump_administration/trump_approval_index_history

[pbrower2a]

Hart Research for National Security Action (D), April 23-27, 1205 LV

Approve 44
Disapprove 56

Lots of questions on national security and foreign policy.

Republicans have usually owned those issues in Presidential elections -- but not with Trump as President.

[ProudModerate2]

Fluctuations in daily trackers aren't worth getting too excited about, but it may be worth keeping an eye on Rasmussen for the next few days.  They've been in the 47%-53% approval range since the end of the shutdown, but Thursday it dropped to 45, stayed there Friday, and dropped again to 44 today.  I believe they use a 3-day rolling average, so it's possible they just got one really bad day for Trump, but it's worth watching the rest of this week.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/trump_administration/trump_approval_index_history

Wow.
Rasmussen has really turned on trump.
We had recent -11's and now today a -12 on his approval.
He is probably losing massive women support (from the little he did have) from all this abortion talk.

[ProudModerate2]

Wasn’t someone here extrapolating up from his bump to posit Trump at 50% on Election Day? LOL.

I found that "someone."
His previous comment is below.

Trump's approval has been on the rise, just as I predicted it would when the Democrat Party snatched control of the House from the Paul 'lyin' Ryan GOP ...

... Trump could very well be at 50% approval on election day ...

[Sir Mohamed]

Newest Rasmussen poll has Trump

Approve 44%
Disapprove 54%

How did this happen? It's Rasmussen.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/trump_administration/trump_approval_index_history

[Person Man]

Newest Rasmussen poll has Trump

Approve 44%
Disapprove 54%

How did this happen? It's Rasmussen.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/trump_administration/trump_approval_index_history

The country is sliding too far to the right.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Newest Rasmussen poll has Trump

Approve 44%
Disapprove 54%

How did this happen? It's Rasmussen.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/trump_administration/trump_approval_index_history

That's yesterday's (see my comments upthread).  He bounced back a bit today to 46/53.

[GeorgiaModerate]

ARG monthly economic survey, May 17-20, 1100 adults

Approve 40 (+1)
Disapprove 56 (-1)

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2622

Quinnipiac University, 1,078 RV, MAY 16-20.

38 (-3)
57!!! (+2)


So Rasmussen did, indeed, show the trend. Who would believe that? Rasmussen!

The nation's economy is "excellent," 22 percent of American voters say in a Quinnipiac University National Poll today, the highest "excellent" rating for the economy. Another 49 percent of voters say the economy is "good." The total 71 percent for "excellent" and "good" is the highest total number for American voter attitudes on the economy in almost 18 years.

Some 52 percent of American voters say they are better off financially today than they were in 2016, while 21 percent say they are worse off and 23 percent say they are the same.

But American voters give President Donald Trump a negative 38 - 57 percent approval rating, compared to a negative 41 - 55 percent approval in a May 2 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University National Poll.

American voters give Trump mixed grades for his handling of the economy as 48 percent approve and 45 percent disapprove. He gets negative grades for handling other issues:
37 - 58 percent for handling foreign policy;
39 - 53 percent for handling trade;
40 - 50 percent for handling the nation's policy toward China;
37 - 47 percent for handling the nation's policy toward Iran.
Voters say 48 - 40 percent the president's trade policies are bad for the U.S. economy, and say 44 - 36 percent that these policies are bad for their personal financial situation.

FAKE NEWS!

[Person Man]

https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2622

Quinnipiac University, 1,078 RV, MAY 16-20.

38 (-3)
57!!! (+2)


So Rasmussen did, indeed, show the trend. Who would believe that? Rasmussen!

The nation's economy is "excellent," 22 percent of American voters say in a Quinnipiac University National Poll today, the highest "excellent" rating for the economy. Another 49 percent of voters say the economy is "good." The total 71 percent for "excellent" and "good" is the highest total number for American voter attitudes on the economy in almost 18 years.

Some 52 percent of American voters say they are better off financially today than they were in 2016, while 21 percent say they are worse off and 23 percent say they are the same.

But American voters give President Donald Trump a negative 38 - 57 percent approval rating, compared to a negative 41 - 55 percent approval in a May 2 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University National Poll.

American voters give Trump mixed grades for his handling of the economy as 48 percent approve and 45 percent disapprove. He gets negative grades for handling other issues:
37 - 58 percent for handling foreign policy;
39 - 53 percent for handling trade;
40 - 50 percent for handling the nation's policy toward China;
37 - 47 percent for handling the nation's policy toward Iran.
Voters say 48 - 40 percent the president's trade policies are bad for the U.S. economy, and say 44 - 36 percent that these policies are bad for their personal financial situation.

FAKE NEWS!

Well, he probably went from like 41 to 43 because of that news report that people were hiring. Then came the tariffs and the floodgates of personhood laws. Now he is probably back down to where he was.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2622

Quinnipiac University, 1,078 RV, MAY 16-20.

38 (-3)
57!!! (+2)


So Rasmussen did, indeed, show the trend. Who would believe that? Rasmussen!

The nation's economy is "excellent," 22 percent of American voters say in a Quinnipiac University National Poll today, the highest "excellent" rating for the economy. Another 49 percent of voters say the economy is "good." The total 71 percent for "excellent" and "good" is the highest total number for American voter attitudes on the economy in almost 18 years.

Some 52 percent of American voters say they are better off financially today than they were in 2016, while 21 percent say they are worse off and 23 percent say they are the same.

But American voters give President Donald Trump a negative 38 - 57 percent approval rating, compared to a negative 41 - 55 percent approval in a May 2 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University National Poll.

American voters give Trump mixed grades for his handling of the economy as 48 percent approve and 45 percent disapprove. He gets negative grades for handling other issues:
37 - 58 percent for handling foreign policy;
39 - 53 percent for handling trade;
40 - 50 percent for handling the nation's policy toward China;
37 - 47 percent for handling the nation's policy toward Iran.
Voters say 48 - 40 percent the president's trade policies are bad for the U.S. economy, and say 44 - 36 percent that these policies are bad for their personal financial situation.

FAKE NEWS!

Also:

In the 2020 general election for president, if Donald Trump is the Republican
candidate, would you definitely vote for him, consider voting for him, or would you
definitely not vote for him?

Definitely yes 31 (-2)
Consider 12 (-1)
Definitely no 54 (+2)

[pbrower2a]

https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2622

Quinnipiac University, 1,078 RV, MAY 16-20.

38 (-3)
57!!! (+2)


So Rasmussen did, indeed, show the trend. Who would believe that? Rasmussen!

The nation's economy is "excellent," 22 percent of American voters say in a Quinnipiac University National Poll today, the highest "excellent" rating for the economy. Another 49 percent of voters say the economy is "good." The total 71 percent for "excellent" and "good" is the highest total number for American voter attitudes on the economy in almost 18 years.

Some 52 percent of American voters say they are better off financially today than they were in 2016, while 21 percent say they are worse off and 23 percent say they are the same.

But American voters give President Donald Trump a negative 38 - 57 percent approval rating, compared to a negative 41 - 55 percent approval in a May 2 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University National Poll.

American voters give Trump mixed grades for his handling of the economy as 48 percent approve and 45 percent disapprove. He gets negative grades for handling other issues:
37 - 58 percent for handling foreign policy;
39 - 53 percent for handling trade;
40 - 50 percent for handling the nation's policy toward China;
37 - 47 percent for handling the nation's policy toward Iran.
Voters say 48 - 40 percent the president's trade policies are bad for the U.S. economy, and say 44 - 36 percent that these policies are bad for their personal financial situation.

FAKE NEWS!

Also:

In the 2020 general election for president, if Donald Trump is the Republican
candidate, would you definitely vote for him, consider voting for him, or would you
definitely not vote for him?

Definitely yes 31 (-2)
Consider 12 (-1)
Definitely no 54 (+2)

Although Rasmussen Reports usually gives an unduly rosy view of Trump approval, movements in it can suggest real change that others might show independently.


The "Definitely no" must obviously now include some conservatives that the President has rubbed the wrong way, and the "consider" must now be a rather Right-leaning lot. America may be more liberal than it was in 2010 through 2016 -- but not that much. "Definitely no" sounds like a sticky number only to the detriment of the President's chances.

It is not America that has abandoned conservatism; it is Donald Trump who has betrayed it. Republicans have typically owned foreign policy for almost forty years, with Democratic Presidents such as Clinton and Obama getting away with their foreign policy by sticking close to the GOP orthodoxy. Conservatives used to have patriotism as an appeal -- until Trump.

The only way in which Donald Trump can win re-election in an honest election is if the liberal side of the political spectrum should rift, which seems not to be happening with the "quarterback controversy" that the Democrats now have. 

The "definitely no" number suggests at the least a near-landslide defeat of this President. A map may be in order.

[Person Man]

https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2622

Quinnipiac University, 1,078 RV, MAY 16-20.

38 (-3)
57!!! (+2)


So Rasmussen did, indeed, show the trend. Who would believe that? Rasmussen!

The nation's economy is "excellent," 22 percent of American voters say in a Quinnipiac University National Poll today, the highest "excellent" rating for the economy. Another 49 percent of voters say the economy is "good." The total 71 percent for "excellent" and "good" is the highest total number for American voter attitudes on the economy in almost 18 years.

Some 52 percent of American voters say they are better off financially today than they were in 2016, while 21 percent say they are worse off and 23 percent say they are the same.

But American voters give President Donald Trump a negative 38 - 57 percent approval rating, compared to a negative 41 - 55 percent approval in a May 2 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University National Poll.

American voters give Trump mixed grades for his handling of the economy as 48 percent approve and 45 percent disapprove. He gets negative grades for handling other issues:
37 - 58 percent for handling foreign policy;
39 - 53 percent for handling trade;
40 - 50 percent for handling the nation's policy toward China;
37 - 47 percent for handling the nation's policy toward Iran.
Voters say 48 - 40 percent the president's trade policies are bad for the U.S. economy, and say 44 - 36 percent that these policies are bad for their personal financial situation.

FAKE NEWS!

Also:

In the 2020 general election for president, if Donald Trump is the Republican
candidate, would you definitely vote for him, consider voting for him, or would you
definitely not vote for him?

Definitely yes 31 (-2)
Consider 12 (-1)
Definitely no 54 (+2)

Although Rasmussen Reports usually gives an unduly rosy view of Trump approval, movements in it can suggest real change that others might show independently.


The "Definitely no" must obviously now include some conservatives that the President has rubbed the wrong way, and the "consider" must now be a rather Right-leaning lot. America may be more liberal than it was in 2010 through 2016 -- but not that much. "Definitely no" sounds like a sticky number only to the detriment of the President's chances.

It is not America that has abandoned conservatism; it is Donald Trump who has betrayed it. Republicans have typically owned foreign policy for almost forty years, with Democratic Presidents such as Clinton and Obama getting away with their foreign policy by sticking close to the GOP orthodoxy. Conservatives used to have patriotism as an appeal -- until Trump.

The only way in which Donald Trump can win re-election in an honest election is if the liberal side of the political spectrum should rift, which seems not to be happening with the "quarterback controversy" that the Democrats now have. 

The "definitely no" number suggests at the least a near-landslide defeat of this President. A map may be in order.

Unless it appears that Trump literally solves all of our problems in the next year or somehow wins a major war next year or really brings our economy to the next level, its either going to be a year like 1916, 2004, or 2012 or a year like 1980, 2008, or 1992.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Hart Research for National Security Action (D), April 23-27, 1205 LV

Approve 44
Disapprove 56

Lots of questions on national security and foreign policy.

Republicans have usually owned those issues in Presidential elections -- but not with Trump as President.

That's also kind of true of taxes, at least in SALT states. Democrats used that to their advantage here in New Jersey. All New Jersey Republicans care about are taxes, so when they're voting for Democrats on that issue in suburban areas, you know it's bad.

[The Mikado]

So now that Trump's hit a two month low on his RCP average, where are all the people talking about his massive surge on that site?

[pbrower2a]

An exercise in predicting how margins would change the map. This is what a nearly-even popular vote would look like for President Trump. Trump actually lost the popular vote in 2016 because Hillary Clinton was still running up huge margins in states such as California, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, and Washington while Trump was winning the states that got close. This is a map of how I see an even popular vote going to Trump:

 

Trump/Pence 351
Sacrificial lambs 186

The most volatile states are likely the closest states, although that is not a strict rule. You can argue that Colorado or Virginia might somehow end up voting for the sacrificial lambs of 2020 -- but any state that was for Clinton by a marginal edge of 3% or so ends up going to Trump.

The popular vote going as it did in 2016 gives a result much like that of  2016, except perhaps for one or two states of the Trump win going to the Democrat.  Trump still wins: the Democrat must win Michigan, Pennsylvania, and one of either Arizona, Iowa, or Wisconsin.

Relying entirely upon demographics in which the new (largely Millennial-Generation) voters offset the departure of older voters from death and senility, a Democrat could in theory win the Presidential election with about a 2% shift of the popular vote. The shift would be strongest in the states closer to ties in 2016 and least in states that were never in contention in 2016.

 

(people cuing "Happy Days Are Here Again some time between 11PM and midnight EST) 288
Trump/Pence  249

popular-vote margin about 5% D



I consider Florida much less volatile than other states, in view of its recent pattern of voting. The Democrat is close there, as in any state in blue on the previous map that makes the shift -- and Georgia, Iowa, North Carolina, and Ohio. I'm choosing ME-02 and NE-02 as the districts that vote differently from their states at large; NE-02 was much closer than NE-02.   Trump picks up nothing, but loses 67 electoral votes from what he got in 2016. Somehow I think that Iowa will revert to its norm and give its electoral votes to the Democrat.

The Democrat wins a nail-biter of an election.

So what happens if Trump loses 55-45? The states are probably as polarized as they have been in Obama elections...  

 



(people cuing "Happy Days Are Here Again some time between 11PM and midnight EST) 373
Trump/Pence  165

In practice the zone between 310 and 360 electoral votes for the eventual winner is an unstable zone. A candidate barely behind might choose to make some shifts of resources from places where he is out of range of winning to critical states that can make or break him. That could mean changing the emphasis of the campaign, making more appearances, or spending more money on advertising. The leader at the time is likely to seek to solidify leads into holds and let the calendar run out while taking effort away from states no longer in easy reach.  But once the lagger stares as the leader holding 320-350 electoral votes, the lagger usually starts to make  
gambles to win states not really in reach at the expense of states that are close that he really needs to win. Thus one sees John McCain making a quixotic effort to win Pennsylvania while neglecting such states as Florida and Ohio.

This is electoral strategy, and not a prediction of how individual states will go.  Beyond this -- it is hard to see, after Texas, what states are 'next'. The core coalition of the GOP is cracking at such a point, and it is more prophecy than anything else to predict how that coalition cracks.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Monmouth, May 16-20, 802 adults including 719 RV (1-month change)

Adults:

Approve 40 (nc)
Disapprove 52 (-2)

RV:

Approve 41 (+1)
Disapprove 52 (-2)

[GeorgiaModerate]

CBS News, May 17-20, 1101 adults

Approve 41
Disapprove 52

Very similar to the Monmouth results.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

CBS News, May 17-20, 1101 adults

Approve 41
Disapprove 52

Very similar to the Monmouth results.

The change from their last poll from January:

Approve 41 (+5)
Disapprove 52 (-7)

It's a swing of 12!
Trumpomentum!  

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1131152788770181121

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

CBS News, May 17-20, 1101 adults

Approve 41
Disapprove 52

Very similar to the Monmouth results.

The change from their last poll from January:

Approve 41 (+5)
Disapprove 52 (-7)

It's a swing of 12!
Trumpomentum!  

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1131152788770181121

idk how a net disapproval of 11 is trumpmentum but ok

[GeorgiaModerate]

CBS News, May 17-20, 1101 adults

Approve 41
Disapprove 52

Very similar to the Monmouth results.

The change from their last poll from January:

Approve 41 (+5)
Disapprove 52 (-7)

It's a swing of 12!
Trumpomentum!  

You mean the January during which the government was shut down and Trump's approval rating cratered?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Rassy showed his approvals improving.