Biden VP news megathread (pg 286 - been selected, announcement could be today)

[GeorgiaModerate]

538's discussion of the running mate choices: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/will-biden-choose-a-running-mate-based-on-electability-ideology-or-identity/.

TL;DR: they think it will be Harris.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I feel like people really understate the potential for Warren. He literally promised her the Vice Presidency in 2016 were he to run. That's obviously a significant indicator that Biden would be a-okay with somebody like Warren being his #2.

I don't see it. She has her own liabilities, and he really shouldn't be going with another septuagenerian.

I'm really not crazy about having two 70+ candidates on the same ticket, and I'm within shouting distance of that range myself.  I'd certainly vote for them, but I'd rather see someone younger (but still with solid experience) as Biden's running mate.

[GeorgiaModerate]

It better be Harris, Baldwin, or Klobuchar. If it's not one of those three, I'll be shocked.

Add Duckworth to the list and I think it's covered.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Abrams reiterates that she's up for being on the ticket:

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/492117-stacey-abrams-i-would-be-honored-to-be-bidens-running-mate

“I would be honored to be on the campaign trail as a running mate,” she said. “But that is a process that you can’t campaign for, and I’m not campaigning for. I’m just being straight-forward.”

“But no matter what, my intention is to ensure that Joseph Biden becomes the next president of the United States,” she continued.

Yes, Stacey, we know. For the umpteenth time, we know.

I came to like her during the gubernatorial race, but she's becoming irritating with this.  I wish she'd knock it off and focus on preparing for a rematch with Kemp.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Politico with a piece pitching Whitmer.

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/04/09/gretchen-whitmer-governor-michigan-profile-2020-coronavirus-biden-vp-177791

She may not end up being Biden's VP, but she's certainly presidential material some day.

She is on a good start but let's wait. Jennifer Granholm was considered presidential material back in the day.

Not by anyone who understands the U.S. Constitution.  Granholm is not a natural-born citizen.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Has there been anything to suggest that Biden is considering Katie Porter for VP? Not only would I consider her qualified and competent, with a pretty good story to tell as a single mom.

Also could be a nice bridge between progressives and resistance moms.

I've seen Porter mentioned as a possibility by a few people, notably Bill Kristol (although he's not someone who would be expected to know what Biden is thinking; he's just speculating).  IMO Porter is a very impressive representative and someone with a great future in politics.  But I don't think she meets the criterion of someone with enough experience in government to step in and assume the Presidency if something happened to Biden.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/LevineJonathan/status/1249099143638736896

[GeorgiaModerate]

Klobuchar would be a Kaine style pick. Too white.
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Kaine's problem was not that he is too white. His problem was that he was to bland. Not a big fan of the Klob, but she is not nearly as bland as Kaine.

Welcome to the forum.  A tip: when quoting, make sure you scroll down below the last /quote tag.  Unfortunately when you hit the quote button, the last part of the quoted material is below the visible window.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Wow, looks like Klobuchar, Gabbard, and Duckworth are the only good options left. Hopefully Joe sees the light.

Gabbard adds nothing.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Abrams takes public lobbying for the VP job to new heights:

https://www.elle.com/culture/career-politics/a32132819/stacey-abrams-on-voting-rights-covid-19-and-being-vice-president/

Stacey Abrams does not give the expected answer when I ask if she would accept an offer from former vice president Joe Biden to serve as his 2020 running mate. “Yes. I would be honored,” Abrams says. “I would be an excellent running mate. I have the capacity to attract voters by motivating typically ignored communities. I have a strong history of executive and management experience in the private, public, and nonprofit sectors. I’ve spent 25 years in independent study of foreign policy. I am ready to help advance an agenda of restoring America’s place in the world. If I am selected, I am prepared and excited to serve.”

"I would be an excellent running mate" isn't the expected answer to this question.

Abrams' blatant public lobbying has historically not been successful in becoming vice president.  Neither Gore, Cheney, Pence or Biden himself took that approach.  Perhaps she thinks it might be more effective in the social media age we live in but I find it hard to believe an old-school pol like Biden will respond well.

The viable running mate candidates are not taking this approach.  They don't need to.  

I recall that Endicott Peabody (former governor of MA) openly campaigned for the Democratic VP nomination in 1972.  Needless to say, it didn't go very far.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Am I the only who doesn't think Warren OR Abrams has a realistic shot? Abrams is too inexperienced and Warren is too old and polarizing.

You're not.

[GeorgiaModerate]

interesting profile of Abrams from 2015 (h/t @ZaidJilani )

Reading Stacey Abrams’ bio, it’s tough to see how she has all the time to fit everything in. She’s co-founded a financial services firm, NOWaccount, Nourish, Inc, a beverage company those focuses on toddlers and infants and is the CEO of Sage Works, a legal advisory firm. She serves as general counsel to the Atlanta Dream and is the COO of Insomnia Group, an Atlanta firm specializing in investment and development for business projects.

One other unexpected detail: In an interview with Womenetics, a B2B services firm that specializes in helping women professionals, Ms. Abrams named three favorite books: The Institutionist, Ender’s Game and… Atlas Shrugged, not exactly a book at the top of most Democrat reading lists. Womenetics called her a “serial entrepreneur” and clearly she has a passion for business. As to how does that translate to the tough business of navigating the politics of Georgia as a Democrat legislator, she seems to have found quick success...

https://www.southernpoliticalreport.com/2015/10/15/house-minority-leader-abrams-talks-new-georgia-project-gig-economy-and-upcoming-session/

There is no doubt Abrams is a very talented and capable person.  She's also written a bunch of romance novels under the pseudonym Selena Montgomery.  I haven't read any of them (it's not one of my favorite genres) but I've heard they're pretty well thought of.

My sole objection to her as a potential running mate for Biden is she doesn't have enough experience in government to be able to step in on a moment's notice, which is an obvious concern for a nominee of his age.  If she were to serve as governor or in Congress for a while, I could certainly see her as President or VP some years down the road.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I think if I had to put % right now, it would be:

75% chance: Kamla
20% chance: Klobuchar
5% chance: anyone else

That's probably the right order, but I think the gap between Harris and Klobuchar is a lot closer than that.  Maybe 60-35.

[GeorgiaModerate]

What about Tammy Baldwin? Could she help win Wisconsin?

Probably.  A couple of the pundits (Enten and Morris, I think, but not 100% sure) have said that a VP choice is generally worth a 1-2% bounce in the VP's home state, so that could make the difference in Wisconsin.  The downside is that if Biden and Baldwin win, it would open up a Senate seat that the Democrats might lose, and could conceivably make the difference in control of the Senate.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1266711242183528448

After all these statements, Biden is going to have to put up or shut up. If he doesn't choose a woman of color at this point, it will be disappointing. I frankly thing the stars have aligned for Val Demings and I'll be bummed if she doesn't pick her.

Yesterday I would have said it would be either Demings or Harris, but after last night I think Keisha Lance Bottoms is firmly in the mix.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/billscher/status/1267167885014769664

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1267199885092294659

The typo ("predation" for "prediction") is unintentionally funny.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1267199885092294659

The typo ("predation" for "prediction") is unintentionally funny.

Is there any data on Who was the odds on favorite both parties in previous cycles? At this point I mean

Mr. Morden keeps a running update on Betfair odds here: https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252766.0.  It includes comparisons with the same point in the last few cycles.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Chris Cillizza's latest rankings:

1. Kamala Harris
2. Keisha Lance Bottoms
3. Val Demings
4. Elizabeth Warren
5. Michelle Lujan Grisham
6. Susan Rice
7. Stacey Abrams
8. Tammy Duckworth
9. Amy Klobuchar
10. Gina Raimondo

[GeorgiaModerate]

How is KLB not electable and  experience? Some states are smaller than Atlanta

The population of Atlanta is around 500,000. It's smaller than Wyoming.

While the city of Atlanta proper has only about 500K residents, it's the core of a metro area with almost 6 million people and a major transportation, communications, and financial center.  In addition to dealing with strictly city issues, the mayor of Atlanta has to work with the patchwork of other city and county governments in the metro, as well as a (usually adversarial) state government.  KLB has done a good job of this; if nothing else, she seems to be more respected outside the city limits than her recent predecessors have been.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I would take the reporting that it's between Harris and Demings with a huge grain of salt.

Yup. Didn’t Fox Business report a month ago that Klobuchar was poised to be the pick, or something like that?

Hmm, what has happened in the last month?

[GeorgiaModerate]

I already thought Duckworth would be a good candidate, but now I really hope she gets it if only to make Tucker lose it for the rest of the campaign.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I'd be surprised if Rice survived betting. She has so much baggage.

She got wiped out in Vegas?

[GeorgiaModerate]

It will be really nice when there is some actual VP news in this thread instead of the endless sniping among people who dislike particular candidates.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/WaltHickey/status/1289760946542587904