NYT LIVE POLL THREAD:

[GeorgiaModerate]

Updating the list of polls so far with a metric I'm tracking.  The first number is NYT/Upshot's estimate based on their weighting; the second is the estimate based only on those who say they're almost certain to vote; and the third is the change from the first to the second (positive is toward the Democrats).  New additions to the list are bolded.

TX-07   R+3   D+9   12
IA-01   D+14   D+25   11
CO-06   D+10   D+17   7
KS-03   D+8   D+14   6
TX-23   R+8   R+2   6
NJ-07   R+1   D+4   5
CA-25   R+2   D+3   5
WV-03   R+8   R+3   5
MN-03   D+9   D+14   5
IL-06   R+1   D+4   5
CA-48   D+1   D+5   4
KY-06   Even*   D+3   3
MN-08   D+2   D+4   2
KS-02   D+1   D+2   1
WI-01   R+6   R+6   0
CA-49   D+10   D+9   -1
IL-12   R+1   R+2   -1
NM-02   D+1   R+4   -5
FL-26   R+4   R+9   -5
TX-32   R+2   R+8   -6
VA-07   R+4   R+10   -6
ME-02   R+6   R+17   -11

Mean: 1.9
Median: 3.5

[GeorgiaModerate]

Also, I think the NJ-03 poll will be one of those "one in 20" margin-of-error misses. A 20 point lead for Kim is Zogby-level bad. Even Cohn seems worried about the validity of the poll.

Well, they've completed 22 polls so far.

[GeorgiaModerate]

boy do I really hate this thread

Don't read it.  Unless of course you're looking for a good hate object, in which case do read it.

[GeorgiaModerate]

In NJ-03, among "almost certain" voters, Kim is +43!

Enthusiasm gap is very, very, very telling in most districts.

Which is why it's odd to me that in a lot of polls with LV models, Dems somehow go down. Nearly every NYT/Siena poll has shown Dems with stronger #s under "almost certain to vote"

I'm actually tracking exactly that gap in the NYT/Siena polls, i.e. the difference between the Upshot weighted estimate and the result among "almost certain to vote".  I'm posting detailed updates periodically in this thread (the latest one is on the previous page, about 8:30 EDT last night).  Overall, for the 22 polls completed so far the mean enthusiasm gap is D+1.9 and the median is D+3.5.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1044603254938767360

[GeorgiaModerate]

PA-07 is complete. 539 respondents-

Wild (D): 50%   34/19% +15 Favorabiliity
Northstein (R): 42%   30/22% +8 Favorability

Trump Approval- 42/53%  -11 Disapprove

GCB: D+11

Wild up 16 points with women, tied with men.

Wild up 11 points with white college-educated whites.

Wild up 17 points with independents.

The "enthusiasm gap" in this one is D+10 (Upshot weighted estimate is D+9, but among those almost certain to vote it's D+19).

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1044782665600249856

[GeorgiaModerate]

Perhaps I am, I just find the electorate to be way too R-friendly for the district that voted for Obama in 2008, voted for Ashford in 2014, and was lost by 2 against Clinton.

Besides, I doubt anyone could win the district if Ashford is as popular as the poll says, and the district is as Trump-friendly as the poll suggests. And if this isnt true, then Eastman/hypothetical D has a much better shot than the poll gives.

It's not the same district that Obama won; it was redrawn after the 2010 Census to be more R-friendly (possibly in response to Obama's winning it.)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Here's an oddity.  Currently NJ-03 has 459 responses with a MoE of 4.9, while NE-02 has 435 responses with a MoE of 4.8.  Why does the smaller sample have a smaller MoE?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Here's an oddity.  Currently NJ-03 has 459 responses with a MoE of 4.9, while NE-02 has 435 responses with a MoE of 4.8.  Why does the smaller sample have a smaller MoE?

Weighting quirks probably.

That's plausible.  Another possibility that just occurred to me is that NE-02 has significantly fewer undecideds.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I don’t see how Eastman is incompetent enough to lose by 10 in a district like NE-02 in a massive Democratic tsunami.

Yeah, I know it will sound hackish but I don't buy this one either. How can a district that voted for Trump by only 3 against an extremely unlikeable democratic candidate have a favorable opinion of him? It doesn't make any sense!

Don Bacon smiles all the time, and LOVES our military, vets, 2nd Amendment, is strong on crime and borders. Who doesn't love BACON?

Also he's really short.

New attack ad: Bacon is bad for your heart!

[GeorgiaModerate]

Schrier has taken the lead in WA-08 (46-45 with 342 responses).

[GeorgiaModerate]

Schrier has taken the lead in WA-08 (46-45 with 342 responses).

...and just like that, it flips back to 46-45 Rossi.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Enthusiasm gap update:

First number is the NYT/Upshot weighted estimate, second is for those "almost certain to vote and no one else", and the third is the movement from the first to the second (positive is toward D).  New entries are bolded.

TX-07   R+3   D+9   12
IA-01   D+14   D+25   11
NJ-03   D+10   D+21   11
PA-07   D+9   D+19   10
CA-45   D+5   D+15   10
CO-06   D+10   D+17   7
KS-03   D+8   D+14   6
TX-23   R+8   R+2   6
NJ-07   R+1   D+4   5
CA-25   R+2   D+3   5
WV-03   R+8   R+3   5
MN-03   D+9   D+14   5
IL-06   R+1   D+4   5
CA-48   D+1   D+5   4
WA-08   D+1   D+4   3
KY-06   R+0   D+3   3
MN-08   D+2   D+4   2
KS-02   D+1   D+2   1
WI-01   R+6   R+6   0
NE-02   R+9   R+9   0
CA-49   D+10   D+9   -1
IL-12   R+1   R+2   -1
NM-02   D+1   R+4   -5
FL-26   R+4   R+9   -5
TX-32   R+2   R+8   -6
VA-07   R+4   R+10   -6
ME-02   R+6   R+17   -11

Mean: D+2.8
Median: D+4

[GeorgiaModerate]

How is VA-02 a close race? Atlas told me it was safe D because of some signature forging scandal that nobody cares about besides Dem hacks. Just like Collins and Hunter were doomed because Republican voters clearly care so much about scandals.

And as Politician says, Candidate Quality™ is all that matters!

As IceSpear says (and Criticism of IceSpear is not allowed by the Atlas thought police) candidate quality is 100% irrevelant in wave years.

How is Valadao winning in CA-21? The national environment, Trump's approval rating, and the district's partisan Lean determine everything. How is Curbelo doing so well? How is Young Kim winning in a Clinton +9 SUBURBAN SEAT where EDUCATED SUBURBAN WOMEN hate Trump?

This is a polite request that the two of you knock it off, as you are greatly lowering the signal/noise ratio in this thread.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Bishop should be ahead by 5-6.

Other way around.  Slotkin by that margin.

[GeorgiaModerate]

TX-31 won the reader poll, and Nate Cohn said they'd try to get there next week.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Pureval is performing 21 points better among those “almost certain to vote” than the general electorate (down 10 among all respondents but up 11 in this specific category). Has there been an enthusiasm gap that large in any of the other districts at this point?

No, if this holds up it would be by far the largest.  The biggest gaps so far:

D+12: TX-07 (R+3 to D+9)
D+11: IA-01 (D+14 to D+25) and NJ-03 (D+10 to D+21)
R+11:ME-02 (R+6 to R+17)
D+10: PA-07 (D+9 to D+19) and CA-45 (D+5 to D+15)

[GeorgiaModerate]

I feel like everyone is taking wayyyy to much stock in this polling

Not at all.  The United States Voter Commission has agreed that who gets into Congress will be determined on the basis of this polling and not on actual votes.

Could be worse.  At least it's not based on Rasmussen polls.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1046135933014351873

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/StuPolitics/status/1046209187766837248

[GeorgiaModerate]

IA-03 has finished with a final result of Axne 44, Young 43.  Among "almost certain" voters, Axne leads by 12, so this ties for the 2nd largest enthusiasm gap so far.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Worth noting is that in this poll Trump has approvals of -1 and Republicans lead the generic ballot by 8. Both are kinda hard to believe, so the poll isn't as bad for Luria as it seems.

Taylor's approvals look really good though, which isn't that great.

If it’s an R-leaning sample relative to the district, you’d expect Taylor’s approvals to be inflated as well. Of course, hard to be sure that this district is not just relatively favorable to the Rs currently.

I feel like this Taylor poll is a test of our ability to not try to unskew polls and just accept findings which are not what we want to see. I'd like someone to prove me wrong.

Another thing that I think many people lose sight of is that even in a wave year, some incumbents will be surprisingly resilient and survive.  Maybe Taylor is one of them.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I love the pro-Trump, pro-Kavanaugh R voting white guy in NC-09 who supports electing more feminists.

Maybe he misheard the questioner and thought it was "men with fists".

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1046914555979419648