2018 Congressional Recruitment/Fundraising/Ratings Megathread v2

[GeorgiaModerate]

Beto O'Rourke raised $6.7 million on 141,000 contributions in the first quarter: https://www.texastribune.org/2018/04/03/orourke-says-he-raised-staggering-67m-first-quarter-2018/

[GeorgiaModerate]

Kyrsten Sinema raised 2.5M in Q1 and has 6.7 M cash on hand: https://twitter.com/VaughnHillyard/status/982357146644963329

[GeorgiaModerate]

A profile of Dr. Steve Foster, the Democratic candidate running against Tom Graves in GA-14: https://politics.myajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/georgia-congressional-hopeful-past-includes-bizarre-boat-theft-case/oDwg7EcRbviXHqMmIfX5nO/.  (Foster has no chance of winning in this very Republican district, but it's an interesting read.  He's a colorful character, to say the least.)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Crystal Ball moves WI-01 from Likely R to Tossup following Ryan's retirement.

[GeorgiaModerate]

"Just possibly maybe 10 more quitting....no big deal"

https://www.twitter.com/kailanikm/status/984185575854039040

To be clear, Chuck Todd was the one who threw out the number 10, asking Stivers if it would be less than that.

[GeorgiaModerate]

So basically YC would only vote for dems that are more conservative than the republican lmao

Proved my point that yc is a hack

I think it just demonstrates that he's a conservative.  He's far less of a hack than a number of others (who shall remain nameless so as not to invoke their presence).

[GeorgiaModerate]

Out of pocket, but Cruz only raised about half of what Beto did over the last quarter.

Where did you see this? I feel like Cruz shouldn't be struggling with donations. He has a national donor group and is a darling of the tea party right and business donor base.

https://www.texastribune.org/2018/04/13/ted-cruz-report-raising-less-half-what-beto-orourke-has-year/

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[GeorgiaModerate]

MT-SEN:  Tester raised $2M in Q1, Rosendale 319K, Fagg 318K, per https://twitter.com/ec_schneider/status/984889309139472385.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Montana fundraising report confirms my thinking that MT will be the first of the Romney/Trump Senate seats with a Democratic Senator to fall off the board.

Clearly, you didn't look at the reports.

I mean that it’ll be the first red state Republicans triage. Sorry if my wording was a bit ambiguous.

That's how I read it to begin with, i.e. the GOP would drop it off their list of major efforts.

[GeorgiaModerate]

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[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/JoeCunninghamSC/status/985541496437919745

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/986585994878169088

[GeorgiaModerate]

Followup:

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/986586375020535808

He also said that Cook would be shifting 7 House ratings today as a result of the FEC reports.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Cook rating changes:

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[GeorgiaModerate]

NRCC: 10.5M in March, 116M cycle to date, 58.8M cash on hand.

DCCC: 14.3M in March, 140M cycle to date, 57M cash on hand.

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[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/geoffreyvs/status/988392085777731586

[GeorgiaModerate]

Crystal Ball makes 15 rating changes, 14 in favor of Democrats (AZ-08 being the other).

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/raising-the-ceiling-but-not-the-floor-on-potential-democratic-house-gains/

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/989840071028301824

[GeorgiaModerate]

Funny but not serious logic twist:

There have been 8 special elections for the House so far.

6: R Hold
1: D Gain
1: D Hold

This indicates a rate of 0% of Democratic seats flipping and 14% of Republican seats flipping

So lets just say that of the 194 seats Democrats won in 2016, all 194 stay Democratic.

And for every of the 241 seats Republicans won in 2016, 1 flips Democratic for every 6 that stay Republican.

This equates to 34 seats flipping Democratic and 207 seats staying Republican.

D+34 confirmed.

Democrats will take the House in 2018 by a 228 to 207 majority.

If it winds up with exactly that margin, which is not implausible, you'll look like a genius!

[GeorgiaModerate]

CNN moves a dozen seats toward the Democrats

Solid R -> Likely R: AZ-06, CA-04, FL-16, MI-01, OH-07
Likely R -> Lean R: AR-02, IL-14, NJ-03, NM-02, OH-01, WA-05, WI-06

They now have:

Solid R: 162
Likely R: 25
Lean R: 25
Tossup: 21 (currently 2 D, 19 R)
Lean D: 11 (including 7 currently R)
Likely D: 11 (including 2 currently R)
Solid D: 180

Full lists of the non-solid ratings are in the article.

[GeorgiaModerate]

CA-48: Democrat Rachel Payne drops out to lower the likelihood of an R-vs-R runoff.  It's too late for her name to come off the ballot, but she will no longer actively campaign.  Source

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/InsideElections/status/992475673229918208

[GeorgiaModerate]

LOL! What are they going to do? Hire more consultants?

The Republican establishment spent $150 million on Please Clap so he could finish 7th in Iowa or whatever. I'm quaking in my boots.

The democrats spent about a billion trying to elect a washed up, out of touch, career politician. Instead, they lost to a gaffe machine billionaire who never held elected office.

That only supports their point: money isn't everything in politics.

[GeorgiaModerate]

April fundraising for GA-06 and GA-07 candidates from the AJC. 

GA-06:

Karen Handel (R, incumbent) raised $66K in April and had almost $800K on hand.  She faces no primary opposition.

On the Democratic side, gun control activist Lucy McBath raised about $45K and had $70K on hand, but is being aided by spending from advocacy group Everytown for Gun Safety.  Businessman Kevin Abel raised $93K and had $11K on hand.  Former newscaster Bobby Kaple raised about $45K and had about $300K on hand. 

GA-07:

Rob Woodall (R, incumbent) raised something under $66K and had $483K on hand.  His only primary challenger, ex-Marine Shane Hazel, had $8500. 

Among Democrats, GSU professor Carolyn Bourdeaux raised $66K and had $134K on hand.  Businessman David Kim raised $10K and loaned his campaign $175K, ending the month with $45K on hand.  Attorney Ethan Pham raised $17K and and loaned his campaign $45K, ending with $92K on hand.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/996236354311901184