Georgia senate seats runoff(s) megathread

[forsythvoter]

https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/1335376629653254146
This is beyond cultish. How are people going to react on 1/20?

Not surprised. These people love to vote. In a close race though, it may come down to just a few thousand people skipping the runoffs because they don’t trust the system. My guess is this is a tactic by the GOP to draw attention to the race and turn their voters out.

I think the risk is that doing this will actually turn off less Trumpy voters who still voted for Trump. There are still a number of those voters even in areas that already heavily swung to Biden. I was talking with my dad about the election today (he still voted for Trump but not because of any love for the candidate) and he's thinking about abstaining from the runoffs because he's just disgusted with the national GOP throwing local Rs under the bus just because they didn't like the election results.

[forsythvoter]

IMO it doesn't matter who controls the Senate.

The Democrats Dream that they can do "New Green Deal" "Court Packing" "D. C. & PR Statehood" "Ending Filibuster" pass "Heroes Act" are non existent with a 50-50 Senate and a best-case scenario 224-211 House.

Just not going to happen! Biden needed a bigger Congressional Margin to do that (Obama 2009).

I've been starting to think this as well. Biden strikes me as pretty sensible and with a narrow majority I would think the Ds would tailor their policies accordingly.

[forsythvoter]

https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/1335376629653254146
This is beyond cultish. How are people going to react on 1/20?

Not surprised. These people love to vote. In a close race though, it may come down to just a few thousand people skipping the runoffs because they don’t trust the system. My guess is this is a tactic by the GOP to draw attention to the race and turn their voters out.

I think the risk is that doing this will actually turn off less Trumpy voters who still voted for Trump. There are still a number of those voters even in areas that already heavily swung to Biden. I was talking with my dad about the election today (he still voted for Trump but not because of any love for the candidate) and he's thinking about abstaining from the runoffs because he's just disgusted with the national GOP throwing local Rs under the bus just because they didn't like the election results.

Hmm. very interesting point. It does seem, like the GOP is starting to split in this race between the full Trumpists and the lighter supporters. I think if they want to win, they're ultimate message has to be a check on Biden, which can be interpreted as preventing Biden from overreaching or stopping this country from become socialists or whatever. Focusing too much on the 2020 results isn't worth it because it creates an unnecessary fracture in their base.

Completely agreed. A winning R strategy imo would be to message that they will check the far left impulses but also work constructively with Biden to get legislation passed. Making the runoffs a referendum on Trump risks turning off the same voters that flipped the state for Biden as well as reluctant Trump supporters.

[forsythvoter]

https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/1335376629653254146
This is beyond cultish. How are people going to react on 1/20?

Not surprised. These people love to vote. In a close race though, it may come down to just a few thousand people skipping the runoffs because they don’t trust the system. My guess is this is a tactic by the GOP to draw attention to the race and turn their voters out.

I think the risk is that doing this will actually turn off less Trumpy voters who still voted for Trump. There are still a number of those voters even in areas that already heavily swung to Biden. I was talking with my dad about the election today (he still voted for Trump but not because of any love for the candidate) and he's thinking about abstaining from the runoffs because he's just disgusted with the national GOP throwing local Rs under the bus just because they didn't like the election results.

Hmm. very interesting point. It does seem, like the GOP is starting to split in this race between the full Trumpists and the lighter supporters. I think if they want to win, they're ultimate message has to be a check on Biden, which can be interpreted as preventing Biden from overreaching or stopping this country from become socialists or whatever. Focusing too much on the 2020 results isn't worth it because it creates an unnecessary fracture in their base.

Completely agreed. A winning R strategy imo would be to message that they will check the far left impulses but also work constructively with Biden to get legislation passed. Making the runoffs a referendum on Trump risks turning off the same voters that flipped the state for Biden as well as reluctant Trump supporters.

Just curious; what's it like on the ground there in GA? Do people just casually talk about the runoffs in their local communities? How active have the parties been in trying to get their bases to show up?

My sense is it's been quite active on both fronts. The elections and GA runoffs were big Thanksgiving topics and it's been non-stop bombardment from the parties. I literally got 2 text messages last week asking if I had requested an absentee ballot and a few door knockers from both the local Dem and Rep parties. Dems seem to be making a targeted effort to target white millennials judging by their pitches (it's basically saying Congress has been ineffective so it's time to try something new, and btw Trump isn't gone) here while Reps are heavily focused on the D trifecta = far left policies, and only a R Senate can stop that. Ossoff himself also was in this part of Forsyth a few days ago handing out campaign signs and Loeffler  also had a recent rally in Cumming a little bit to the north.

It might depend on community, but my social circle is primarily the area around the N Atlanta suburbs - I live in South Forsyth County, my wife's parents live in East Cobb and my parents live in Dunwoody. These are areas that are going to have high turnout on Jan 5 regardless, but the parties definitely are not taking their chances.

[forsythvoter]

My sense is it's been quite active on both fronts. The elections and GA runoffs were big Thanksgiving topics and it's been non-stop bombardment from the parties. I literally got 2 text messages last week asking if I had requested an absentee ballot and a few door knockers from both the local Dem and Rep parties. Dems seem to be making a targeted effort to target white millennials judging by their pitches (it's basically saying Congress has been ineffective so it's time to try something new, and btw Trump isn't gone) here while Reps are heavily focused on the D trifecta = far left policies, and only a R Senate can stop that. Ossoff himself also was in this part of Forsyth a few days ago handing out campaign signs and Loeffler  also had a recent rally in Cumming a little bit to the north.

It might depend on community, but my social circle is primarily the area around the N Atlanta suburbs - I live in South Forsyth County, my wife's parents live in East Cobb and my parents live in Dunwoody. These are areas that are going to have high turnout on Jan 5 regardless, but the parties definitely are not taking their chances.

Will most people who voted by mail in the primary... be very inclined to do so in the runoff (maybe due to the little time commitment it involves, familiar with the process now, etc)?

Are mainstream Dems (rather than Ind's who vote Dem) motivated at all by getting McConnel out of power (due to things like blocking Garland from getting a vote, etc)?

Who do you think ends up winning?

I think close to a million people requested absentee ballots vs. 1.3M who voted absentee in the general election, so I expect turnout for the runoffs to be around 3.5-4M votes. It's really hard to say which party this benefits, but since this is Atlas, there are a few data points worth discussing:

I think I saw an analysis that said if the absentee ballots vote the same way as their county's absentees did in November, Ds would lead 65-35% and Biden won the November absentee ballot count 61-37%. Republicans would say they are pushing absentees more this time so maybe the November count isn't an accurate benchmark.

The Dems I know are highly motivated, but there honestly aren't that many of them in this area (voting D is a relatively new thing in this part of town, much less identifying as one). I can definitely sense divides within the various R camps here - some like my dad are pretty disgusted with this post-election Trump drama even if they reluctantly voted for him, others are scared to death of a D trifecta and aren't afraid to let you know it, and still others are considering splitting their tickets because they want to send Trump a message while not giving Dems full control at the same time.

I don't have a good sense of who will win - gun to my head I will say Perdue and Warnock. To the extent that voters in this part of town are splitting tickets, Perdue / Warnock seems like the far more common approach, but I can't say the North Atlanta suburbs are representative of other areas of the state.

[forsythvoter]

IMO it doesn't matter who controls the Senate.

The Democrats Dream that they can do "New Green Deal" "Court Packing" "D. C. & PR Statehood" "Ending Filibuster" pass "Heroes Act" are non existent with a 50-50 Senate and a best-case scenario 224-211 House.

Just not going to happen! Biden needed a bigger Congressional Margin to do that (Obama 2009).

I've been starting to think this as well. Biden strikes me as pretty sensible and with a narrow majority I would think the Ds would tailor their policies accordingly.

I agree. I mean, he's made it very clear what policies he stands for and that he is eager to unite America and tangibly move things in a positive direction. He's literally said that he would veto M4A--not that that's relevant considering most senate democrats don't even support it. Mitch McConnell spent the entire Obama presidency trying to stop anything from happening. We can't go through that again. Obviously all the details are never going to be 100% public, but has there ever been any indication from Biden, Warnock, or Ossoff that they would support some of the stranger ideas coming out of the left?

And just looking at the candidates on the content of their character, do you really think that Loeffler and Perdue are good people who will put aside politics for the good of America? I seriously doubt it.

To be fair though, you don't think Murkowski, Romney or Collins would be willing to break ranks to pass legislation on specific areas?

[forsythvoter]

apparently 7% of voters who are voting in the runoffs did not vote in the general, I wonder who they are? its weird

White- 44% 
Black- 35%
Other: 21% 

My Guess:
16% Dem (from Others)
34% Dem (from Black)
20% Dem (from White)

So 70% Dem

...so of 7%... 4.9% Dem/ 2.1% Repub (a 2.8% gain for Dems)

Did they give a total number (rather than %)?

I think there are just over a 1M requested absentees, so if 7% of them are new voters, that's already 70k votes, which is significant. That would be a massive uptick in the "other vote" and a modest uptick in the black vote so wonder if these new voters are disproportionately Asian / Hispanic? Those two groups have the most room to grow in terms of voting participation relative to the voting-eligible population.

I would guess these voters lean Democratic, but given the trends this year in Hispanic and Asian-heavy places like NYC, CA and the RGV, who knows.

[forsythvoter]

Is this turnout good for Dems? I mean, the election nationwide showed us benefits from high turnout isn't a one-way street for Dems. I'm particulary interested in opinions from GA posters.

Black voters are 32.8 percent of the mail in ballots requested and 33 percent of the votes cast. The answer is yes.

But, since Ossoff barely squeaked into the runoff, he will have to perform better than he did in November. Warnock looks better.

How does Warnock look better? If anything I think Ossoff does a little better than Warnock

I actually find both Ds a bit more impressive than the two Rs (in terms of personality and campaign strategy, not necessarily policy views), but I think Warnock's chances are better because Loeffler turns more people off than Perdue and her term is only for 2 years so easier for traditional R voters to cross-over. At least this is true in my stretch of the N Atlanta burbs.

[forsythvoter]

I haven't looked through 46 pages of commentary, so I don't know if this question has been addressed, but: why would a GA voter split her or his vote on Jan. 5?

Of course, if every voter split their ballots, the GOP would control the Senate unless both races ended in an exact tie. Continuing the journey through math fantasyland, any one of the four outcomes would have a 25% probability of happening if the races were independent, which of course they are not.

As of now, I'd say 3 of the 4 possible outcomes have about a 30% chance of happening, with Ossoff - Loeffler at about 10%.

Things to consider:
1. Some older, rural, white GOP voters have died since Nov. 3; and a number of those who turn 18 between Nov. 3 and Jan. 5 (more urban, more minority, more Democratic) have registered.

2. The Chambliss effect: in 2008, Saxby Chambliss (R) outpolled his Democratic opponent 49.9 - 47.2 on election day. Four weeks later, when everyone knew the Democrats had the presidency and both houses of Congress, Chambliss won comfortably, 57-43. The key difference in 2020, of course, is that, unlike in 2008, Senate control hangs in the balance (not to mention 12 years of the kinds of demographic changes described in 1 above).

Will the "Chambliss effect" be a factor this year?

There are some moderate suburbanites (such as forsythvoter) who have become alienated from Loeffler, but would still feel comfortable voting for Perdue. I don't fully understand their motivations either, given that both Loeffler and Perdue have hitched themselves on the Trump Train and have identical voting records. Moreover, both have made ignorant and controversial statements, and both have made explicit appeals to Trumpist voters.

Just to be clear, I'm not all that comfortable voting for Perdue for a variety of reasons. If I were, I would have just sent in my absentee ballot already.

Does anyone know if Atlas store copies of messages that we already sent privately? I actually just wrote a long email to another poster privately this morning laying out in a lot of detail my thinking process. I do want folks who are strongly D or R (and this forum has plenty) to at least understand the perspective of voters in the middle, even if they do not agree with it. I would like to publish it, but it's not showing up in my outbox.

[forsythvoter]

The grifting never stops.
https://twitter.com/NoahShachtman/status/1339210253506895872

I mean tbf, pretty much anyone who owns a home, particularly one that's expensive, will try to make it seem as bad as possible during appraisal for tax purposes. These attacks on Loeffler's and Perdue's finances make them look like terrible people, but I almost think Democrats are overusing this attack method, ultimately few except the engaged who are definately voting and have likely already made up their mind care about all their financial problems. People get that Loefeller and Perdue are bad, but Ossoff need to also be able to explain why they are good.

They have....

I think what Progressive Moderate is trying to say is that attacks like these are effective are up to a point, but after they reach that point, they become a bit overused and take up bandwidth and resourcing that really could be put towards messages that move more voters. The average voter is well aware at this point that Loeffler / Perdue made a bunch of unethical stock trades and did some questionable deals that seems to have financially benefited themselves. If they aren't already voting against Loeffler / Perdue at this point, it's clearly not the winning message

I would say the same thing for the R attacks on D being socialists btw, for all the Rs on this forum. It's pretty overused to the point of being discounted. I frankly have no personal experience living in communist Cuba or under Maduro's Venezuela, but it just seems absurd to call the Ds as being from the same family to the point where I just chuckle when I hear the ads.

[forsythvoter]

I haven't looked through 46 pages of commentary, so I don't know if this question has been addressed, but: why would a GA voter split her or his vote on Jan. 5?

Of course, if every voter split their ballots, the GOP would control the Senate unless both races ended in an exact tie. Continuing the journey through math fantasyland, any one of the four outcomes would have a 25% probability of happening if the races were independent, which of course they are not.

As of now, I'd say 3 of the 4 possible outcomes have about a 30% chance of happening, with Ossoff - Loeffler at about 10%.

Things to consider:
1. Some older, rural, white GOP voters have died since Nov. 3; and a number of those who turn 18 between Nov. 3 and Jan. 5 (more urban, more minority, more Democratic) have registered.

2. The Chambliss effect: in 2008, Saxby Chambliss (R) outpolled his Democratic opponent 49.9 - 47.2 on election day. Four weeks later, when everyone knew the Democrats had the presidency and both houses of Congress, Chambliss won comfortably, 57-43. The key difference in 2020, of course, is that, unlike in 2008, Senate control hangs in the balance (not to mention 12 years of the kinds of demographic changes described in 1 above).

Will the "Chambliss effect" be a factor this year?

There are some moderate suburbanites (such as forsythvoter) who have become alienated from Loeffler, but would still feel comfortable voting for Perdue. I don't fully understand their motivations either, given that both Loeffler and Perdue have hitched themselves on the Trump Train and have identical voting records. Moreover, both have made ignorant and controversial statements, and both have made explicit appeals to Trumpist voters.

Just to be clear, I'm not all that comfortable voting for Perdue for a variety of reasons. If I were, I would have just sent in my absentee ballot already.

Does anyone know if Atlas store copies of messages that we already sent privately? I actually just wrote a long email to another poster privately this morning laying out in a lot of detail my thinking process. I do want folks who are strongly D or R (and this forum has plenty) to at least understand the perspective of voters in the middle, even if they do not agree with it. I would like to publish it, but it's not showing up in my outbox.

Thanks to the poster that replied with my email so I could publish it . Presenting random musings of forsythvoter...

Before I get to the Senate runoffs, one of the reasons I post on Atlas (in addition to being curious about other viewpoints) is because I think there are a number of people who read the forums to get a better understanding of all the different political viewpoints that are out there. While I certainly don't represent all GA voters, I hope that my posts provide good insights on what's top of mind from the standpoint of a formerly R-leaning (arguably this is no longer the case, as you may be aware from my posts) voter whose views are pretty common in a heavily Republican suburb of Atlanta that is trending quite rapidly Democratic.

In terms of how I think about the Senate runoffs, I actually don't view it as a vote for Perdue/Loeffler vs. Ossof / Warnock. Rather, I see it more as a vote for Collins / Murkowski / Romney vs. a vote for Manchin / Sinema. Therefore, the difference to me is not as extreme as I think many Democrats see it. I still see value in a system where Democrats should be able to get at least one R to sign onto their legislation. In my mind as a moderate, that makes for more moderate legislation. And if the situations were reversed (Trump were re-elected with a narrow House majority, my thinking would absolutely be flipped). The fact that I'm contemplating voting straight Democratic for the runoffs is frankly what's quite incredible imo, and a reflection of how much the GOP has turned off voters like me.

In terms of legislation - you can look through some of my past points, but I really do worry about our ballooning deficit and national debt. I realize and agree Republicans have done nothing to control this, but I worry that giving Dems a trifecta will lead to excess spending in areas that I actually don't think are good for the broader economy. For example, I actually don't think those with student loans on average are struggling as much as those without (I say that as a college-educated voter who has student loans and would benefit from having them canceled).

There are two good points you and others have raised and I am digesting it. It is these two things which are preventing me from just following my typical instinct to not give Dems a trifecta. One is how much power does McConnell really have to prevent legislation from getting passed, assuming Murkowski, Romney or Collins agree. I frankly still don't fully understand this point and if you have any insights, I will be eager to hear. I agree with the Ds that he will try to obstruct Biden's agenda - the question I have, is to what extent can he do so with 51 or 52 votes.

The other point is I do not think highly of Loeffler or Perdue at all. The reason I've ruled out voting for Loeffler goes beyond just the fraud accusations. I think she's essentially running a dog whistle campaign (how she wasn't aware that was taking a picture with a prominent KKK member is frankly not even the tip of the iceberg for me) in the hopes that white voters like me secretly agree with her not so subtle references to Warnock's race. I find it honestly quite offensive, and frankly if I weren't comfortable living with black Americans, I wouldn't be living in metro Atlanta in the first place. This type of campaign to me is absolutely disqualifying and is why Warnock has my vote.

Perdue isn't running against Warnock, so you may argue that's why we haven't seen that sort of a campaign to this extent from his side, but I try to judge based on what I see, not on what I think I would see. This is where I think Dems and Reps tend to jump the gun, including on issues like packing the courts. I would prefer not to pack the courts; maybe my opinion would change if they started overturning Roe vs. Wade, Obergefell, etc. but I am not convinced hat they will do so. If Dems pack the courts, they will also have to contend with the very real likelihood that Repubs will do the same once they have the trifecta btw - an outcome I tend to think is just as likely in the future as Dems getting and maintaining one.

So for Perdue, my vote is really coming down to how much do I think Biden's agenda will be stonewalled vs. just moderated by Rs having a 51 seat majority in the Senate.

[forsythvoter]

There's an article on Slate https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/12/georgia-senate-runoff-republicans-loeffler-perdue-trump.html that might be insightful to those looking to better understand the N Atlanta suburban voting patterns. It's an interview with the mayor of Sandy Springs, one of the affluent close-in northern suburbs of Atlanta that's swung pretty dramatically Democratic over the past 8 years.

Some more memorable quotes from this article:
 
"I’m hoping after Jan. 5, we can start picking up the pieces and we can put back at least part of that coalition. But it’s going to be a challenge because once you vote Democratic in three elections—2016, 2018, 2020—it quickly becomes a habit." <-- I hadn't really thoughts about it this way but it's true the ATL suburbs have now voted Dem in 3 elections in a row and it's starting to become a habit for many voters in this area

"There would appear to be about 100,000 Republicans who voted for Biden but came back and voted Republican in the Senate race and the rest of the ballot box." <-- I doubt this many self-identifying Republicans voted for Biden, but there are lot of R-leaning indies that did this election. This is the group I've been saying will decide the Senate runoffs, but I would add that many in this group also have been quite turned off by the post-Trump fraud theatrics and Loeffler and Perdue's embrace of them.

[forsythvoter]

There's an article on Slate https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/12/georgia-senate-runoff-republicans-loeffler-perdue-trump.html that might be insightful to those looking to better understand the N Atlanta suburban voting patterns. It's an interview with the mayor of Sandy Springs, one of the affluent close-in northern suburbs of Atlanta that's swung pretty dramatically Democratic over the past 8 years.

Some more memorable quotes from this article:
 
"I’m hoping after Jan. 5, we can start picking up the pieces and we can put back at least part of that coalition. But it’s going to be a challenge because once you vote Democratic in three elections—2016, 2018, 2020—it quickly becomes a habit." <-- I hadn't really thoughts about it this way but it's true the ATL suburbs have now voted Dem in 3 elections in a row and it's starting to become a habit for many voters in this area

"There would appear to be about 100,000 Republicans who voted for Biden but came back and voted Republican in the Senate race and the rest of the ballot box." <-- I doubt this many self-identifying Republicans voted for Biden, but there are lot of R-leaning indies that did this election. This is the group I've been saying will decide the Senate runoffs, but I would add that many in this group also have been quite turned off by the post-Trump fraud theatrics and Loeffler and Perdue's embrace of them.

Who would you say is favored in the two runoffs right now? Warnock/Ossoff, or Loeffler/Perdue? The most recent polls I've seen (and yes, I'm aware of what happened with polling this year) seem to indicate that Loeffler/Perdue have the advantage, and I personally expect them to eke out victories. But what are you seeing where you live? I know you've talked at length about how many independents and moderates in Georgia have been alienated by what has happened over the past month since the presidential election.

I think Perdue is somewhat favored and Loeffler / Warnock is pretty close to a toss-up, if you were basing it off just my circle of Biden / R down-ballot voters. Warnock has a better chance fairly or unfairly because that senate seat is up for re-election in 2 years and many Biden / R downballot voters seem inclined to give a D a shot as long as it doesn't create a D trifecta if for no other reason than as a protest against Trump's continuous sway within the R party.

I will also add that I actually think Dems' odds have improved since the general election. If the runoff were held the week after the general election, I actually think Perdue and Loeffler would have been in somewhat better standing. It definitely feels like there's been some erosion in their support among R-leaning Biden voters over the last few weeks as Perdue / Loeffler have become increasingly vocal about their support for overturning the GA election results.

One final note - GA 6 and GA 7 traditionally have above average turnout rates in the state. They are at the bottom at the turnout so far and I'm actually pretty sure it's because there are a lot of Biden / R downballot voters who are still trying to decide who to vote for or more reluctant Trump voters that don't want to vote D but don't want to support Trump's party. These voters are not guaranteed to be D / R voters and I think they are the ones that are going to swing the state one way or another.

[forsythvoter]

There's an article on Slate https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/12/georgia-senate-runoff-republicans-loeffler-perdue-trump.html that might be insightful to those looking to better understand the N Atlanta suburban voting patterns. It's an interview with the mayor of Sandy Springs, one of the affluent close-in northern suburbs of Atlanta that's swung pretty dramatically Democratic over the past 8 years.

Some more memorable quotes from this article:
 
"I’m hoping after Jan. 5, we can start picking up the pieces and we can put back at least part of that coalition. But it’s going to be a challenge because once you vote Democratic in three elections—2016, 2018, 2020—it quickly becomes a habit." <-- I hadn't really thoughts about it this way but it's true the ATL suburbs have now voted Dem in 3 elections in a row and it's starting to become a habit for many voters in this area

"There would appear to be about 100,000 Republicans who voted for Biden but came back and voted Republican in the Senate race and the rest of the ballot box." <-- I doubt this many self-identifying Republicans voted for Biden, but there are lot of R-leaning indies that did this election. This is the group I've been saying will decide the Senate runoffs, but I would add that many in this group also have been quite turned off by the post-Trump fraud theatrics and Loeffler and Perdue's embrace of them.

Its the same pattern really for many suburbs after 1992. After a number of elections, it becomes engrained and that is why 2006 and 2008 were bad in places like the Philly Burbs. We saw a similar dynamic in the collar of Cook after 2008-2012-2016 and of course NOVA likewise.

Yeah, it'll be interesting to see what happens in 2022, regardless of how the runoffs go. I do think even if Loeffler wins, she's going to be one of the most vulnerable Rs for the 2022 cycle.

[forsythvoter]

100,000 seems like it's pushing it. NYT has Perdue 763 votes ahead of Trump. Granted, for some reason they have more votes counted for President than Senate (not sure if this is undervote or just a reporting quirk: NYT says Pres is at 100% in but Senate is at 99% in), but going off percentages I would guess that there are about 20,000 of these voters tops. That's certainly enough to swing a close election, but I don't think there's this huge mythical group of split ticket voters.

What if there are tens of thousands of low-information Trump voters who didn’t bother to vote for Senate? That would allow for a large number of Biden-Purdue voters.

I guess that could be it, but from a cursory glance at the data I see more evidence of Biden voters not voting for senate than Trump voters, and in the absence of such evidence I would hesitate to say that there were enough of them to make up that 80k gap.

I'm not sure you can say that the dropoff is exclusively or even mostly a Biden / downballot D thing though. There are almost certainly also lower information voters who showed up to vote for Trump and didn't bother to keep voting downballot.

Also, fwiw, I just looked up the results for my home precinct (Windermere, Forsyth County)

Trump: 4599 (58.7%)
Biden: 3233 (41.3%)

Perdue: 4689 (60.8%)
Ossoff: 3021 (39.2%)

Perdue got 2.1% more of the votes cast than Trump did, and 90 more raw votes, just in this one precinct. Even if you assumed that every single Trump voted voted for Perdue (which is certainly not true as I personally have a neighbor who is a Trump / Ossoff voter), this would mean at least 3% of Biden voters crossed over to vote for Perdue. I would estimate the real number is 4-5% of Biden voters crossing over, offset by 1-2% of Trump voters crossing over.

And for reference, here are the 2016 and 2012 results:

Trump: 3735 (67.4%)
Hillary: 1805 (32.6%)

Romney: 4470 (80.9%)
Obama: 1057 (19.1%)

[forsythvoter]

https://twitter.com/lawindsor/status/1340392013162835970?s=20
Forsythvoter, you still considering Perdue? 👀

Fwiw, I don't think very highly of either Perdue or Loeffler - they don't strike me as authentic in the slightest and I doubt they have the interests of even the Trump base at heart, but how other voters vote is not for me to decide.

As for Perdue specifically - is there actual video or audio evidence he intends to go through with challenging the election results in the Senate floor? I can't believe he would be stupid enough to commit to the challenging the results but if there is direct evidence, it will of course impact my final decision on who to vote for.

[forsythvoter]

There is a really neat site that tracks turnout statistics by race, age, gender , county and congressional districts:
https://www.georgiavotes.com/county.php

Here's where we stand in terms of early vote by Congressional District. Does someone have the Biden % by Georgia congressional district?


District       RV        Votes   Mail (B)    Mail (V)  Early (V)   % of Gen

GA-5        626,977 146,440 113,909   47,312  99,128      46.7%
GA-4        555,113 138,298 116,906   54,151  84,147      45.9%
GA-13      573,033 142,969 104,934   48,939  94,030      45.7%
GA-2        452,270   94,762   67,149  31,035  63,727       44.3%
GA-8        484,047 104,517   65,451  36,673  67,844       43.8%
GA-6        542,180 145,785 123,371  60,010  85,775       42.2%
GA-1        532,375 104,833   78,822  38,376  66,457       41.2%
GA-3        550,621 119,161   82,011  40,972  78,189       41.2%
GA-12      491,245   95,762   70,303  37,283  58,479       40.6%
GA-9        540,452 122,754   76,204  42,144  80,610       40.1%
GA-7        543,452 125,860 103,963  50,947  74,913       39.5%
GA-10      545,211 121,666   85,180  38,233  83,433       39.2%
GA-11      577,393 126,137 115,317  61,998  64,139       37.9%
GA-14      468,681   89,653   58,340  33,017  56,636       37.0%

Just eyeballing the top / bottom turnout districts here:

• GA-5, GA-4 and GA-13 are heavily D urban metro Atlanta districts
• A lot of black belt is in GA-2
• GA-10 and GA-14 are predominately white rural districts and GA-11 is a mix of North GA rurals and Cobb

It also looks like voters in the swing GA-6 and GA-7 districts are starting to make up their minds as their turnout has jumped a bit over the last few days.

[forsythvoter]

I might just be a political oddball but I do actually care about the deficit and responsible spending and I'm not convinced a blanket $2,000 stimulus check is good policy. I'd much prefer the Dems take some time to lay out all the different options for stimulating the economy (e.g., infrastructure spending, tax credits for parents that need child care for the pandemic), rather than just jump on the more checks for everyone train.

[forsythvoter]

I might just be a political oddball but I do actually care about the deficit and responsible spending and I'm not convinced a blanket $2,000 stimulus check is good policy. I'd much prefer the Dems take some time to lay out all the different options for stimulating the economy (e.g., infrastructure spending, tax credits for parents that need child care for the pandemic), rather than just jump on the more checks for everyone train.

We're in a recession, the deficit doesn't matter right now (and barely matters during times of economic expansion). The best stimulus for this pandemic would be lockdowns coupled with direct aid to businesses to keep them open and direct checks to families/individuals so that they can afford to stay home and keep the virus in check.

Half the population is working from home already according to the polls and doing better financially than ever. Do they really need direct checks?

I disagree the deficit doesn't matter. We're financing all of this in the form of debt that carries interest that the Government will have to pay each year until that debt is paid off.

[forsythvoter]

I might just be a political oddball but I do actually care about the deficit and responsible spending and I'm not convinced a blanket $2,000 stimulus check is good policy. I'd much prefer the Dems take some time to lay out all the different options for stimulating the economy (e.g., infrastructure spending, tax credits for parents that need child care for the pandemic), rather than just jump on the more checks for everyone train.

We're in a recession, the deficit doesn't matter right now (and barely matters during times of economic expansion). The best stimulus for this pandemic would be lockdowns coupled with direct aid to businesses to keep them open and direct checks to families/individuals so that they can afford to stay home and keep the virus in check.

Half the population is working from home already according to the polls and doing better financially than ever. Do they really need direct checks?

I disagree the deficit doesn't matter. We're financing all of this in the form of debt that carries interest that the Government will have to pay each year until that debt is paid off.

The main issue with a deficit is long term - if you can’t pay off your loans, your credit rating goes down and you might not be able to borrow as easily in the future. But in the short-term, it’s not that big of a deal, and especially in the middle of a recession, a country is doing something wrong if it’s not running a deficit. (Also history shows that Democratic presidents tend to be much better at reducing or keeping the deficit in check than Republicans.)

Agreed on your first point. I think it's also not just about ability to borrow but the fact that we'll have to make interest payments on the debt we incur. Yes, we could (and probably will end up) borrowing more money to pay off this interest and this will delay the bill, but it will come due someday in the form of reduced spending power or higher taxes.

I'm not particularly partisan, so this isn't a Dem / Rep issue to me. Trump certainly didn't even try to reduce the deficit while he was President.

[forsythvoter]

I might just be a political oddball but I do actually care about the deficit and responsible spending and I'm not convinced a blanket $2,000 stimulus check is good policy. I'd much prefer the Dems take some time to lay out all the different options for stimulating the economy (e.g., infrastructure spending, tax credits for parents that need child care for the pandemic), rather than just jump on the more checks for everyone train.

We're in a recession, the deficit doesn't matter right now (and barely matters during times of economic expansion). The best stimulus for this pandemic would be lockdowns coupled with direct aid to businesses to keep them open and direct checks to families/individuals so that they can afford to stay home and keep the virus in check.

Half the population is working from home already according to the polls and doing better financially than ever. Do they really need direct checks?

I disagree the deficit doesn't matter. We're financing all of this in the form of debt that carries interest that the Government will have to pay each year until that debt is paid off.

Who says we have to pay?

Well, as I see it, there are 3 options:

1) Government borrows more money to pay off the interest, resulting in ever higher interest payments. This just kicks the can down the road for options 2 and 3 below.

2) Government cuts spending or increases taxes to pay off the debt. I imagine both would be just as politically unpopular as the stimulus checks might be popular.

3) Government defaults on the debt or prints money to pay off the debt. See Venezuela for why this is a bad idea - hyperinflation, currency would become worthless, bank runs.

[forsythvoter]

There is a really neat site that tracks turnout statistics by race, age, gender , county and congressional districts:
https://www.georgiavotes.com/county.php

Here's where we stand in terms of early vote by Congressional District. Does someone have the Biden % by Georgia congressional district?


District       RV        Votes   Mail (B)    Mail (V)  Early (V)   % of Gen

GA-5        626,977 146,440 113,909   47,312  99,128      46.7%
GA-4        555,113 138,298 116,906   54,151  84,147      45.9%
GA-13      573,033 142,969 104,934   48,939  94,030      45.7%
GA-2        452,270   94,762   67,149  31,035  63,727       44.3%
GA-8        484,047 104,517   65,451  36,673  67,844       43.8%
GA-6        542,180 145,785 123,371  60,010  85,775       42.2%
GA-1        532,375 104,833   78,822  38,376  66,457       41.2%
GA-3        550,621 119,161   82,011  40,972  78,189       41.2%
GA-12      491,245   95,762   70,303  37,283  58,479       40.6%
GA-9        540,452 122,754   76,204  42,144  80,610       40.1%
GA-7        543,452 125,860 103,963  50,947  74,913       39.5%
GA-10      545,211 121,666   85,180  38,233  83,433       39.2%
GA-11      577,393 126,137 115,317  61,998  64,139       37.9%
GA-14      468,681   89,653   58,340  33,017  56,636       37.0%

Just eyeballing the top / bottom turnout districts here:

• GA-5, GA-4 and GA-13 are heavily D urban metro Atlanta districts
• A lot of black belt is in GA-2
• GA-10 and GA-14 are predominately white rural districts and GA-11 is a mix of North GA rurals and Cobb

Here's the updated turnout numbers by congressional district today. Statewide, we are at about 46% of the November general election turnout. The urban metro Atlanta districts continue to lead in terms of new turnout, while Marjorie Taylor Greene's district lags. GA-6 and GA-7 are continuing to move up in the rankings as well.

District       RV           Votes       Mail (B)    Mail (V)    Early (V)  % of Gen (1-day change)

GA-5        626,977    164,240    113,345    52,804    111,436   52.4% (+5.7%)
GA-13      573,033    160,682    104,759    54,821    105,861   51.4% (+5.7%)
GA-4        555,113    154,788    116,646    59,748     95,040    51.3% (+5.4%)
GA-2        452,270    104,360     67,576     32,909     71,451    48.8% (+4.5%)
GA-8        484,047    116,461     65,573     38,849     77,612    48.8% (+5.0%)
GA-6        542,180    164,282    123,094    66,128     98,154    47.6% (+5.4%)
GA-3        550,621    133,863     82,041     44,439     89,424    46.2% (+5.1%)
GA-12      491,245    108,689     70,343     41,744     66,945    46.1% (+5.5%)
GA-1        532,375    116,275     79,398     40,553     75,722    45.7% (+4.5%)
GA-7        543,452    142,813   103,766     56,419     86,394    44.9% (+5.4%)
GA-9        540,452    137,513     76,375     45,024     92,489    44.9% (+4.8%)
GA-10      545,211    138,878     85,351     43,273     95,605    44.7% (+5.5%)
GA-11      577,393    141,798   115,509     67,442     74,356    42.6% (+4.7%)
GA-14      468,681    100,019     58,284     35,046     64,973    41.3% (+4.3%)

[forsythvoter]

Hmmm... EV does look great for Dems, but having EV over Christmas week could mean Republicans skew even more toward ED voting than usual.  If it holds, the increase in black turnout for the runoff resembles LA-GOV 2019. 

Yeah, it's too early for Reps to panic / Dems to celebrate because we don't know how the voting patterns might change during the runoff. The only insight I really take away from all this is that black turnout does look like it will be very strong and it's not going to be turnout that costs Dems one or both of these seats if they lose.

[forsythvoter]

Here's the updated turnout numbers by congressional district as of end of day yesterday. Statewide, we are at about 51% of the November general election early turnout. I have some thoughts that I will throw out in a separate post.

District       RV           Votes       Mail (B)    Mail (V)   Early (V)  % of Gen (1-day change)

GA-5         626,977    179,106   113,111    56,656   122,450    57.2% (+4.8%)
GA-4         555,113    168,978   116,459    63,932   105,046    56.1% (+4.8%)
GA-13       573,033    174,657   104,630    57,861   116,796    55.9% (+4.5%)
GA-2         452,270    114,001    68,157    35,865    78,136     53.3% (+4.5%)
GA-8         484,047    126,574    65,591    40,486    86,088     53.0% (+4.2%)
GA-6         542,180    179,765   122,802    69,750   110,015   52.1% (+4.5%)
GA-3         550,621    147,878    82,145    47,561   100,317    51.1% (+4.9%)
GA-12       491,245    117,971    70,560    43,989    73,982     50.0% (+3.9%)
GA-1         532,375    126,610    79,755    43,164    83,446     49.7% (+4.0%)
GA-7         543,452    158,017   103,714   60,316    97,701     49.6% (+4.7%)
GA-10       545,211    153,709    85,498    47,068   106,641    49.5% (+4.8%)
GA-9         540,452    150,806    76,439    47,408   103,398    49.2% (+4.3%)
GA-11       577,393    155,765   115,438   71,200    84,565     46.8% (+4.2%)
GA-14       468,681    109,035    58,279    36,487    72,548     45.0% (+3.7%)

Notes:

• GA-5, GA-4 and GA-13 are heavily D urban metro Atlanta districts
• A lot of black belt is in GA-2
• GA-6 and GA-7 are the Trump'16 --> Biden'20 districts
• GA-9, GA-10, GA-14 are predominately white rural districts and GA-11 is a mix of North GA rurals and Cobb. GA-9 is also Doug Collin's district

Source: https://www.georgiavotes.com/

[forsythvoter]

Christmas Eve really slowed down the turnout. Let's see if turnout shoots up after Christmas

One important point - most of GA is now closed for early voting until Monday, 12/28. The only counties I believe that are open are Fulton, DeKalb and Gwinnett this weekend.