2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[forsythvoter]

It's almost over in GA. Looks like Clayton still has about 20K votes and it's a Biden 85% county. Rest of the votes are almost all in Democratic counties - Dekalb, Cobb, Gwinnett, Chatham, Muscogee, Bibb and Richmond

[forsythvoter]

Trump lead in GA is down to 12K, with about 65K remaining votes in heavily Democratic areas.

Just woke up after 9 hours of sleep (finally!!). Have to go to work so no time to catch up. Could anybody help?

Nevada looks scary close. Are we still confident about that one?

Is Arizona still disputed? It was last night.

Biden has caught up quite a lot in PA - what's the general verdict here?

Any real news on which direction GA is taking?

[forsythvoter]

If Biden wins this batch 15-2, he could flip the numbers. I think he'll probably wins it more like 14-3 given the last bath. The flip will have to come from the other metro counties or Chatham absentees.

https://twitter.com/NatishaLance/status/1324217855567663104

Is that enough to flip?

[forsythvoter]

It's actually looking more like Biden has won Georgia by 10-20K votes.

Damn it, Biden has narrowly lost Georgia.

how do you even know that? they havent said they have finalized the ballots or anything

[forsythvoter]

Woke up and see I missed a lot of anxiety over GA, PA and AZ lol. I've been tracking the results myself so can see what's been happening. For folks wondering what the situation with GA is, this is the right version (Dave Wasserman also just confirmed). There are 25K ballots left to count today. However, Fulton and some other counties counted a large batch of ballots last night that have not been reported. There should be around 35K unreported ballots that will be reported this morning in addition to the remaining ballots that will be counted.

So, the votes are definitely there for Biden to still win GA. He will need about 65% of the unreported ballots and uncounted ballots, so it comes down to where those are coming from.

https://twitter.com/SammysWorld2/status/1324325620038459394

[forsythvoter]

See my post a few posts up. The GA SOS should be the source of truth. There are about 25K uncounted ballots. What AJC is trying to say is that there were a bunch of ballots counted last night that have not been reported. This is what the non-partisan election pundits are reporting as well.

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1324348271003897857

I mean

[forsythvoter]

Yes, this shouldn't be a surprise. GA SOS said there were 90K ballots left to count yesterday, but the NYT times total show only about 30K new ballots since then.

https://twitter.com/wsbtv/status/1324347100096856066

[forsythvoter]

NYT times reporting the exact number of uncounted ballots in GA is 61,367. Trump lead is 18,590 going into this final Batch. Biden will need to win about 65% of this last batch to take the lead.

It looks like the vast majority of these are metro ATL (Fulton, Clayton and Dekalb) votes, with some Chatham mail-ins thrown in the mix.

I have a strong sense of how this is going to turn out but I'm going to refrain from making a projection. Let's just wait for the final GA SOS update!

[forsythvoter]

Quoting this so we can hold folks accountable with actual data. We'll know the final result in GA pretty soon.

How are we feeling about PA, GA, NV, and AZ?

PA: Awful now despite decent numbers cause well you know
GA: LOL... come on
NV: Shaky but not totally doom
AZ: Has always felt like it was slipping away

[forsythvoter]

Completely agree with this. We really should all be focused more on the understanding the process, ballots left to be counted and making predictions based off the evidence - and yes, there are different ways to interpret the same evidence but you need to start with the evidence. There's too much asserting on this forum without justification.

Could you folks stop bickering and doomering so we can focus on reports about numbers?

Has anyone heard about the times that we expect meaningful updates from PA, GA, NV and AZ?

11 - GA
12 - NV, PA
Tonight - AZ

Awesome, thanks.

[forsythvoter]

This is good stuff. The last batch of Cobb mail-ins were 10k Biden to 4K Trump or about D+45 for comparison. I'm assuming the Gwinnett ones will follow a similar trend.

The Trump campaign's hopes rest with the rurals and if they can keep those margins with the mail-ins.

This is from the 538 blog, with the estimated remaining votes as of earlier this morning (note: this is still a moving target!)

County     Votes      Lean in 2016 relative to state
Chatham  17,157   D+22
Fulton      11,200   D+51
Clayton      7,408   D+75
Gwinnett    7,338   D+23
Forsyth      4,713   R+29
Harris        3,641   R+49
Bryan        3,027   R+38
Laurens     1,797   R+24
Putnam     1,552   R+37
Sumter     1,202   D+51
Cobb           700   D+7
Floyd           682   R+38
Burke          494   D+8
Taylor          456   R+18

Weighted average: D+19.  But don't forget that absentee ballots are running much more D than the above partisan leans (e.g. last I heard, Biden was actually winning Forsyth absentees).

[forsythvoter]

Biden needs to get 65% of the remaing 60K or so ballots out there in GA. The answer to that question will determine whether or not he takes the lead.

Is Biden gonna win the peach state or nah?

Let me let you in on a little secret .... No

Let me let you in on a little secret .... the numbers don't agree with you. Like, at all.

[forsythvoter]

It's accurate. There are about 60K ballots left and Biden will need 65% of them to take the lead from Trump.

Hold up, GA just went up to 98% on NYT. Are we good there?

[forsythvoter]

A few more votes reported from rural GA. Trump lead now down to +14,250. Interestingly,  these rural main-in votes went Democratic (1,800 Biden -1,300 Trump) even though the counties they are in are 2-1 Trump.

[forsythvoter]

For both GA and PA, it's becoming very clear the mail-in votes are going to be significantly more Democratic than the counted vote so far - something on the order of 50-60% more in PA and maybe 20-30% more in GA (in counties where the D vote isn't already 80%+). You can tell how the votes might lean by looking at the 2016 results - most counties in PA are either flat are even more D this election so if the current totals show the opposite trend, you can bet the difference is the outstanding mail-in votes.

It's pretty safe to say Biden is going to end up winning PA and it's probably not going to be all that close either.

[forsythvoter]

A bit of an aside, but I think Forsyth may end up around 65-33 Trump (71-24 Trump in 2016) once it's last mail-in votes are added. GeorgiaMod, your 65-35 prediction was pretty close!

[forsythvoter]

70-28 Kemp

A bit of an aside, but I think Forsyth may end up around 65-33 Trump (71-24 Trump in 2016) once it's last mail-in votes are added. GeorgiaMod, your 65-35 prediction was pretty close!

What was the margin in the 2018 gubernatorial?

[forsythvoter]

If you go back 4 more years, Forsyth was 81-18 Romney (+63R).

A bit of an aside, but I think Forsyth may end up around 65-33 Trump (71-24 Trump in 2016) once it's last mail-in votes are added. GeorgiaMod, your 65-35 prediction was pretty close!

What was the margin in the 2018 gubernatorial?

[/quote]
so, in terms of margins in topballot races:
2016: +47 R
2018: +42 R
2020: +32 R
[/quote]

[forsythvoter]

Folks, I just realized GA SOS has posted the vote breakdown by ballot type by county. This does not include the uncounted 50K or so ballots.

That means we can estimate the remaining vote with more precision. Chatham existing mail-in votes are 75% Biden, Forsyth is 52% Biden, Fulton is 80% Biden, Clayton is 86%, Gwinnett is 67%. Bryan outside of metro Atlanta is 57% Biden.

Don't know if I'm missing any big counties, but it's averaging all out to between 70-75% Biden. He needs 65% of the uncounted ballots to win.

[forsythvoter]

I believe so since it wasn't on 538's list of oustanding counties

Folks, I just realized GA SOS has posted the vote breakdown by ballot type by county. This does not include the uncounted 50K or so ballots.

That means we can estimate the remaining vote with more precision. Chatham existing mail-in votes are 75% Biden, Forsyth is 52% Biden, Fulton is 80% Biden, Clayton is 86%, Gwinnett is 67%. Bryan outside of metro Atlanta is 57% Biden.

Don't know if I'm missing any big counties, but it's averaging all out to between 70-75% Biden. He needs 65% of the uncounted ballots to win.

Is DeKalb fully in?

[forsythvoter]

That was an alarmingly large amount of blue lol

it's okay guys

[forsythvoter]

After the dust settles, we all need to have a conversation about why more attention wasn't put on GA this election (by the Rs especially). I think Rs really had an attitude that this state was un-flippable because of history and severely underestimate the suburban backlash that was pretty evident to anyone who lived within 50 miles of Atlanta. People can read my prior posts, but the warning signs in the suburbs were there.

Also, states like GA don't have enough WWC voters to win the state (given their R support is already maxed out) but have a ton of college-educated white voters in the suburbs whose support was already pretty lukewarm towards the R party. It looks like a number of folks in this group flipped this year and may have turned GA blue with them. And I am one of them, btw.

[forsythvoter]

Cobb apparently had a few more ballots that weren't in the original estimates and that netted Biden a hundred or so. Trump lead in GA now down to 13,220. 50K outstanding.

[forsythvoter]

Yeah, the data is looking pretty grim for Trump. If the remaining absentees vote the same way as the counted absentees in their counties, my calculations show Biden on track to lead by 5-10k votes. There are still provisionals after that which many counties will add back in but that's usually a Democratic leaning group.

Cobb apparently had a few more ballots that weren't in the original estimates and that netted Biden a hundred or so. Trump lead in GA now down to 13,220. 50K outstanding.

Numbers look bad for Trump.

[forsythvoter]

Chatham has 17K absentees out and their counted ones so far are going 3-1 Biden just to give you a sense of what's out there.

Cobb apparently had a few more ballots that weren't in the original estimates and that netted Biden a hundred or so. Trump lead in GA now down to 13,220. 50K outstanding.

Numbers look bad for Trump.

At that rate even 65% of the outstanding ballots going to Biden would be enough for him to win, and thus far the late returns have been notably more favorable to him than that.

Even now with no Fulton?