Official 2022 Congressional Election Results Thread

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Democratic turnout SURGING in Nevada!
https://twitter.com/johnrsamuelsen/status/1590029051875721217?s=46&t=oyTHMZQ...

Can we not use second differentials when looking at election results ?

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Wasserman tweet has convinced me to start dooming, Final predictions are 52-48 republican senate and 30+ republican house gains.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

I've reached acceptance, democrats are loosing the house and the senate. It's a fact of life, special election results, Dobbs or pollsters underweighing young woman isn't going to make a difference. It's not going to be bad by the standards of a midterm wave, but it's going to be a red wave.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

That does it. I don't think any amount of drumbeating about not drawing sweeping conclusions from turnout reports hours before polls close will convince anyone. See you nerds at 7:00 PM EST.

Democrats are not turning out in urban cores, hide from it all you want that is a very bad sign and it's clear we've lost. The Guam flip is also indicative of an anti-democrat party enviorment given how democratic it normally is.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

That does it. I don't think any amount of drumbeating about not drawing sweeping conclusions from turnout reports hours before polls close will convince anyone. See you nerds at 7:00 PM EST.

Democrats are not turning out in urban cores, hide from it all you want that is a very bad sign and it's clear we've lost. The Guam flip is also indicative of an anti-democrat party enviorment given how democratic it normally is.

.... Philly and Dane turnout are great right now.

Dane is an anomaly, so is philly. The main places we're just seeing horrendous democrat turnout especialy heavily latino city cores.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

That does it. I don't think any amount of drumbeating about not drawing sweeping conclusions from turnout reports hours before polls close will convince anyone. See you nerds at 7:00 PM EST.

Democrats are not turning out in urban cores, hide from it all you want that is a very bad sign and it's clear we've lost. The Guam flip is also indicative of an anti-democrat party enviorment given how democratic it normally is.

.... Philly and Dane turnout are great right now.

Dane is an anomaly, so is philly. The main places we're just seeing horrendous democrat turnout especialy heavily latino city cores.

“The main places”?

I mean typical american cities like Cleavland or Toledo where the democrats need strong margins to avoid a red-wave. What kind of place do you think is more representive of the kind of cities that decide elections. Dane, a  very white college town with an extremely liberal reputation or Toledo a typical american city with it's standard mix of demographics.

White Liberals are turning out great but that's not enough to win given that Latinos are just not turning out.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

With regards to the Guam thing, dismissing it out of hand is stupid. Guman is a weird strange place but it's not disconnected from the rest of american politics. People from Guam align democrat but it has a very strong military presecence and is embelmatic of the kind of minorities that are swining away from the democrats. Minorities that live in communities mostly dominated by people of the same race, with strong employment in law enforcment and military jobs similar to the RGV.

I think we can take the race in Guam as indiciative the republicans have been able to expand their appeale to these kind of minority communities and the RGV is going to trend away from the democrats.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

With regards to the Guam thing, dismissing it out of hand is stupid. Guman is a weird strange place but it's not disconnected from the rest of american politics. People from Guam align democrat but it has a very strong military presecence and is embelmatic of the kind of minorities that are swining away from the democrats. Minorities that live in communities mostly dominated by people of the same race, with strong employment in law enforcment and military jobs similar to the RGV.

I think we can take the race in Guam as indiciative the republicans have been able to expand their appeale to these kind of minority communities and the RGV is going to trend away from the democrats.

The result out of Guam is split though?

The federal delegate result isn't. They voted their democrat out and that's indicative of how they feel regarding national politics not the local results.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

I know early extrapolation is an Atlas tradition and I don’t want to ruin the fun, but if anyone seriously thinks the delegate race in Guam is a useful indicator of the national environment you’re insane.

Do you think people in Guam aren't exposed to the same factors that effect the rest of the american electorate ? Why can't the results there be used to draw information about the state of the national enviorment given that the voters there are exposed to the same influences that the rest of the electorate is exposed too.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

I know early extrapolation is an Atlas tradition and I don’t want to ruin the fun, but if anyone seriously thinks the delegate race in Guam is a useful indicator of the national environment you’re insane.

Do you think people in Guam aren't exposed to the same factors that effect the rest of the american electorate ? Why can't the results there be used to draw information about the state of the national enviorment given that the voters there are exposed to the same influences that the rest of the electorate is exposed too.

For one thing it swung 47 points left from 2018 to 2020 even as the national GCB swung 5 points right lol

That's by combing the share of two canidates which isn't pesphologicaly sound espeicaly as one of them ran as a traditional conservative democrat.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

https://twitter.com/TimCalWMUR/status/1590070562462003200
Some actual results

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

I just don't understand how the democrats loosing a federal office they've held for almost 30 years isn't a bad sign and indicative of a very republican enviorment. Swings in seats considered safe can be random especially small ones. The texas 27th district had a pretty random swing uncorrelated with the national enviorment, but that doesn't mean if the republicans took the district it would be a catastrophic sign for the democrats.

Honestly, I think accepting the results now is the best way forward. That way you're prepared to recive them when they come and if you turn out to be wrong you just get a pleasant suprise instead of dread.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

https://twitter.com/ChristianHeiens/status/1590068716120571905
More bad news.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Woah, this is some crazy video out of Yuma County, AZ. What are these Hobbs supporters thinking?

https://kyma.,com/news/top-stories/2022/11/08/violence-erupts-at-fortuna-foothills-polling-place-hobbs-lake/

Don't bait people, anyway all the flashing signs are bad so i'm just going to go to class and ignore everything until 6 when we will see the confirmation of the red wave.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

SImon Rosenberg is starting to get pessimestic about dem chances, an even worse sign if even the most optimisitic dems are facing the music.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

I'm cautious with Nevada cause the new Mail drop-box law and other factors might make it hard even for seasoned analysts to tell the election. Honestly i'm going to go bash my head against VLSI design, it seems less stressfull than this.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Polls haven’t closed yet….why are people dooming so much?

It's less stressful than trying to be optimisitic as the turnout data comes in.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Are we getting a top-line democrat vs republican vote number ?

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

This poll is obviously bunk if those are the racial figures they got (unless they lumped all white hispanics under white).

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1590110891344728064
I'm less nervous about Neveda i think the idea that clark county being the one place where turnout falls to 2014 levels is unlikley so the weight of probaility suggests dems are just dropping their votes off. I think the unions that made the Reid machine were telling their members to do that as well.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Reading more about the NV situation, I am dooming less now. If every voter was mailed a ballot, and if you can just drop it off or mail it today without having to wait in line at the polling site, who would waste time actually voting in person (which are the only numbers we are seeing)? It’s not surprising that the only ones are MAGA lunatics who think absentee ballots are woke trans Soros socialism.

That makes a ton of sense, the alternative being a localised dropoff of democratic voters doesn't make much sense.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

What votes get counted cause if it's all early might actualy be bad for dems if they're only outperforming trump by 3 in the early vote which should favour them.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

I'm sensing a vibe shift back towards the democrats.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Extremely high turnout at A&M on campus precinct, line is crazy and students are mostly liberal looking.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Is there a reason people are suddenly a bit more favorable towards Fetterman? I'd be shocked if he wins.

Philly turnout is at 2018 levels.