Kentucky gets to be free-floating and Beshear is an incumbent.
NC is more dependent on if Trump/Biden win the state or not since split-ticketing is so rare now, ergo, Robinson has a lot of room since, barring any kind of big shift, Biden has to win by 6 to flip the state and thus help Stein over.
Eh, Cooper out-ran Biden by just under 6 points, so I don't see why Stein wouldn't outrun Biden by at least 2-3. Sure, he isn't an incumbent so he's at a bit of a disadvantage relative to Cooper, but his high candidate quality (esp relative to Robinson's probable low candidate quality) and the fact that he currently holds statewide office should be good enough to outrun Biden by at least half of how much Cooper did.
At that point, Biden just needs to lose the state by less than 2-3 points, which feels very likely if he's winning the national popular vote by more than ~1 point.
Cooper was a popular incumbent governor, him running ahead by only 6 points demonstrates that overperforming the top of the ballot is very difficult for the Democratic Party in North Carolina. Polls uniformly showed a blowout. Robinson did two points better than Trump in 2020 even after receiving coverage for being an anti-Semite, even if he flew mostly under the radar. A generic R vs. generic D would probably be a few points better for the GOP than Trump vs. Biden. The difference in candidate quality will make it close to the Presidential, where I'd give a slight nod to Trump at the moment.
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