Which governorship are Republicans more likely to win?

[Tekken_Guy]

Which governorship are Republicans more likely to win in the next two years? Kentucky’s in 2023 or North Carolina’s in 2024?

[Ferguson97]

North Carolina, easily. Dems are favored in Kentucky, GOP is favored in North Carolina.

[Spectator]

North Carolina, easily. Dems are favored in Kentucky, GOP is favored in North Carolina.

Are we really basing NC off of polls where no one knows what Mark Robinson’s views are? Or even who Stein and Robinson are outside the politically engaged?

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

North Carolina, easily. Dems are favored in Kentucky, GOP is favored in North Carolina.

What world are you living in?

[Lechasseur]

Kentucky for sure

Kentucky's looking like a tossup right now, while I believe the Democrats are favored to win in NC next year

[Reactionary Libertarian]

Kentucky. Mark Robinson is not a viable candidate.

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/ForwardCarolina/status/1665819017599131650

Tell me with a straight face that this guy would be favored in a general.

[President Johnson]

North Carolina, easily. Dems are favored in Kentucky, GOP is favored in North Carolina.

How is Mastriano's African American brother favored in North Carolina?

[Mr. Smith]

Kentucky gets to be free-floating and Beshear is an incumbent.

NC is more dependent on if Trump/Biden win the state or not since split-ticketing is so rare now, ergo, Robinson has a lot of room since, barring any kind of big shift, Biden has to win by 6 to flip the state and thus help Stein over.

[Meatball Ron]

Kentucky gets to be free-floating and Beshear is an incumbent.

NC is more dependent on if Trump/Biden win the state or not since split-ticketing is so rare now, ergo, Robinson has a lot of room since, barring any kind of big shift, Biden has to win by 6 to flip the state and thus help Stein over.

Eh, Cooper out-ran Biden by just under 6 points, so I don't see why Stein wouldn't outrun Biden by at least 2-3. Sure, he isn't an incumbent so he's at a bit of a disadvantage relative to Cooper, but his high candidate quality (esp relative to Robinson's probable low candidate quality) and the fact that he currently holds statewide office should be good enough to outrun Biden by at least half of how much Cooper did.

At that point, Biden just needs to lose the state by less than 2-3 points, which feels very likely if he's winning the national popular vote by more than ~1 point.

[Vice President Christian Man]

They're close assuming Robinson is the nominee but I'd still say NC.

[Alben Barkley]

It's close, but NC won't have the advantage of a strong and popular incumbent. NC's partisan lean in theory may be much more purple, but when it comes to gubernatorial elections specifically, not so much.

[kwabbit]

Kentucky gets to be free-floating and Beshear is an incumbent.

NC is more dependent on if Trump/Biden win the state or not since split-ticketing is so rare now, ergo, Robinson has a lot of room since, barring any kind of big shift, Biden has to win by 6 to flip the state and thus help Stein over.

Eh, Cooper out-ran Biden by just under 6 points, so I don't see why Stein wouldn't outrun Biden by at least 2-3. Sure, he isn't an incumbent so he's at a bit of a disadvantage relative to Cooper, but his high candidate quality (esp relative to Robinson's probable low candidate quality) and the fact that he currently holds statewide office should be good enough to outrun Biden by at least half of how much Cooper did.

At that point, Biden just needs to lose the state by less than 2-3 points, which feels very likely if he's winning the national popular vote by more than ~1 point.

Cooper was a popular incumbent governor, him running ahead by only 6 points demonstrates that overperforming the top of the ballot is very difficult for the Democratic Party in North Carolina. Polls uniformly showed a blowout. Robinson did two points better than Trump in 2020 even after receiving coverage for being an anti-Semite, even if he flew mostly under the radar. A generic R vs. generic D would probably be a few points better for the GOP than Trump vs. Biden. The difference in candidate quality will make it close to the Presidential, where I'd give a slight nod to Trump at the moment.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Kentucky, especially if Robinson is the nominee (in which case NC is no worse than Lean D and much closer to Likely D than Tilt D; I’d go so far as to say it is Likely D with Robinson whereas it is Tilt D without him).

Kentucky is Tilt D, but much closer to Tilt R than Lean D.  Beshear has the edge, but simply by virtue of facing a Republican who isn’t a garbage-tier candidate in Kentucky, he will always be fighting against some extremely strong tides to the point that one misstep or a moderate shift in the national environment could easily cost him the race.

Stein will likely face Robinson (who is basically the Mastriano of this cycle) and I imagine Stein will win by something like 7-10 points simply because of how polarized NC is and it being a Presidential election year.  That said, I could easily imagine a scenario where Robinson loses by as much as 15-16%, but 7-10% is more likely imo. 

If it’s not Robinson, Walker and Folwell strike me as rather unimpressive in a bland “meh” sort of way.  They’d lose by less (especially Folwell), but I still think Stein would still have the advantage and I don’t see either of them even forcing a runoff, much less winning the Republican nomination.

[Sir Mohamed]

They're close assuming Robinson is the nominee but I'd still say NC.

He's the overwhelming favorite for the nomination.

I'd say KY is somewhat more likely.

[Dave Hedgehog]

Definitely KY because the R partisan lean of the state is just so much heavier than it is in NC.

The KY governor race is going to be one heck of a nail-biter for sure and I'm already thinking about taking a day off work on the Wednesday to follow the results as they come in (and I don't even live in the country let alone the state!).

[Xing]

Kentucky, since it's easier to see partisanship being too much for Beshear to overcome, particularly since he has a competent opponent, whereas Stein probably just has to narrowly overperform Biden against a lunatic to win.

[Samof94]

Kentucky, since it's easier to see partisanship being too much for Beshear to overcome, particularly since he has a competent opponent, whereas Stein probably just has to narrowly overperform Biden against a lunatic to win.

NC also is possibly going to flip D at the presidential level. Kentucky hasn’t since Clinton.