2022 Primary Election Night Coverage Megathread (9/13 - GRAND FINALE - DE, NH, RI)

[kwabbit]

It might be heading for a Paxton vs. Bush runoff. Should be interesting. George P. Bush is making a big bet on his political career with this run. If he became attorney general, that would set him up to become governor and perhaps continue the Bush dynasty.

[kwabbit]

The trends in the PA primary are surprising to me. I expected Barnette's vote to be more urban-rural polarized, despite her being from Montgomery County. Her winning Berks and Lancaster are interesting.

I expected McCormick to win the Pittsburgh area and his hometown area, Chester, Delco, Montgomery, Oz to win Philly, NE PA, Bucks, and Barnette to win most of the rural areas. Even in a 3 way tie, McCormick would still be winning a lot of these rural counties. Odd for an out of state hedge fund manager.

Trump's endorsement carries the most weight in areas with the most Obama-Trump voters. These voters are Republican because of Trump, and they seem most inclined to follow his endorsement.

Mastriano winning is a drag. If I lived in PA, I'd probably go Oz-Shapiro. Mastriano's nomination has the potential to endanger democracy more than any other this cycle.

[kwabbit]

CA returns are confusing as always, with some red shifts and some blue shifts.

The D/R margin as it stands in the competitive districts are:

CA-03: R+7, Trump +2;
CA-09: D+5, Biden + 13;
CA-13: D+1, Biden +11;
CA-22: R+12, Biden +13;
CA-26: D+8, Biden +20;
CA-27: R+3, Biden +12;
CA-40: R+18, Biden +2;
CA-41: R+5, Trump +1;
CA-45: R+14, Biden +6;
CA-47: D+3, Biden +11;
CA-49: D+3, Biden +11;

CA-26 isn't likely to be competitive but I included it because the primary was within 10 pts. Judging from these results, incumbency is very powerful in the open primary. Incumbents whose party didn't get a clear majority stand to perform more poorly in the fall. That worsens the picture for Garcia, Porter, Levin, Calvert.

I'd give the following ratings:

CA-03: Likely R;
CA-09: Lean D;
CA-13: Tossup;
CA-22: Lean R;
CA-26: Safe D;
CA-27: Tossup;
CA-40: Likely R;
CA-41: Lean R;
CA-45: Likely R;
CA-47: Tossup;
CA-49: Tossup;

CA-13 actually voted to recall Newsom last year.

[kwabbit]

CA returns are confusing as always, with some red shifts and some blue shifts.

The D/R margin as it stands in the competitive districts are:

CA-03: R+7, Trump +2;
CA-09: D+5, Biden + 13;
CA-13: D+1, Biden +11;
CA-22: R+12, Biden +13;
CA-26: D+8, Biden +20;
CA-27: R+3, Biden +12;
CA-40: R+18, Biden +2;
CA-41: R+5, Trump +1;
CA-42: R+14, Biden +6;
CA-47: D+3, Biden +11;
CA-49: D+3, Biden +11;

CA-26 isn't likely to be competitive but I included it because the primary was within 10 pts. Judging from these results, incumbency is very powerful in the open primary. Incumbents whose party didn't get a clear majority stand to perform more poorly in the fall. That worsens the picture for Garcia, Porter, Levin, Calvert.

I'd give the following ratings:

CA-03: Likely R;
CA-09: Lean D;
CA-13: Tossup;
CA-22: Lean R;
CA-26: Safe D;
CA-27: Tossup;
CA-40: Likely R;
CA-42: Likely R;
CA-47: Tossup;
CA-49: Tossup;

CA-13 actually voted to recall Newsom last year.

CA-42 is safe D. Robert Garcia will win in a landslide against John Briscoe.

I must’ve made a typo. I’ll edit. I meant 45, Michelle Steele’s district.

[kwabbit]

I would put CA-47 and CA-49 as lean D instead of tossup. Since Top 2 came into  effect there is normally a small shift toward the Democrats in the General.  With both already being D+3 and Porter and Levin having a fundraising advantage (Porter by an absurd amount) I think they are lean to likely D. Also watch CA-22, The primary will narrow with almost everything left in the Kern part of the district (the blue part).

Those were the boldest calls maybe, I would call them Tilt D but I don't like to use tilts. Levin and Porter are definite favorites but a Lean requires too much certainty. I think they occupy maybe the most likely double digit Biden seats to go red (outside of incumbents like Garcia/Valadao). Baugh seems like a good recruit too, Maryott not as much. We've seen that Republicans with non-MAGA bona fides can quite well in SoCal. It's no coincidence that there were so many House GOP overperformances there in 2020. Right now, I'd expect a 1-2 pt win for Porter and a 2-3 pt win for Levin in the GE.

[kwabbit]

Meijer seems on track to win, though I don't know if the late returns will doom him. Ottawa being all the way in and Gibbs +11 isn't enough to outweigh Kent.

[kwabbit]

I think the real question is "Does Cheney win a single county?"

I think she should win Teton. Not sure what the GOP primary electorate look like there, but it should be much different than the rest of the state even if it's not entirely rich ski types.

[kwabbit]

Gotta say it's hard to take the "Trump is losing his hold on the GOP" takes seriously when ALL of the pro-impeachment Rs are losing primaries

Dan Newhouse and David Valadao say hello.

The top-two primary system creates incentives that do not exist in normal primary systems.

I think Katko (if he ran) would have been the only one capable of surviving a non top-two primary system. Lots of registered ancestral Rs in Onandaga County. Meijer got close and Grand Rapids is similar enough to Syracuse.  

[kwabbit]

Gotta say it's hard to take the "Trump is losing his hold on the GOP" takes seriously when ALL of the pro-impeachment Rs are losing primaries

Dan Newhouse and David Valadao say hello.

The top-two primary system creates incentives that do not exist in normal primary systems.

I think Katko (if he ran) would have been the only one capable of surviving a non top-two primary system. Lots of registered ancestral Rs in Onandaga County. Meijer got close and Grand Rapids is similar enough to Syracuse.  

The new NY-22 also features a lot of Obama-Trump/Trumpish Republican voters in the Utica area (it likely has significantly more of such primary voters than MI-03), which Katko also never represented in Congress/doesn't have an incumbency advantage. I don't think the odds would be on his side.

That's a good point. Although Muskegon ~ Oneida if we're comparing the two districts. I think Katko would end up winning 55/45, racking up the margin in Onandaga. He's the House's biggest overperformer. If anyone could win it would be him.

[kwabbit]

The map and margins is almost one-to-one with the 2020 president. Cheney is getting most Democrats and some moderate Rs.

[kwabbit]

Cheney's campaign literally managed to turn Cheney vs. Hageman into a D vs. R contest in Wyoming and - surprisingly - got..... Cheney'd like a generic liberal D. Never seen an incumbent self-immolate to this extent.

Truly a sight to behold.

At a certain point, Cheney realized that her future lies in MSNBC appearances and not congress. Losing 60/40 wasn’t helpful with her if it destroyed the massive amount of adoration she gained among liberals.

[kwabbit]

Bolduc winning in Manchester and nearly winning in Concord doesn't seem a great sign for Morse.

Morse would need to clean up in the border towns to win. Bolduc seems safe if Morse can’t win in the cities.

[kwabbit]

Seems like there wasn't anything unexpected out of New Hampshire except perhaps the overperformance of Lily Tang Williams in NH-02. It'd be nice if she somehow won but despite ticking up with the last updates it looks like Burns is going to take it.

The NH-Sen primary was a little closer than I expected but isn't going to be close enough to have been enthralling. Bolduc's up by 3.3, it'll probably tick down to +2, but that's nothing major.

Edit: DDHQ has Bolduc +1.2. Quite close.

[kwabbit]

So is the NH GOP primary really over? It’s looking very close…

I think it’s over in an AZ 2020 sort of sense. Called too early by many people, but won’t end up biting them. I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s Bolduc <1, since the remaining towns should be friendly to Morse, but I don’t think there’s a serious chance of Morse winning.