2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread

[republican1993]

Andrew Bond
@AndrewBond3
·
14m
Amazing how many ballots have come in so far today in FL. 538K (3.7% turnout) in this morning was 462K.  So 76K in so far today. I could see FL hitting 1M returned by Wednesday. Still under 1% in Brevard, Clay, Hernando, Miami, Orange, Pinellas, Polk, Santa Rosa, Seminole.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17YKazYaUMZ33vmd4YHDKcVdlTkP5DmnHQQlAttwOzL0/edit#gid=1837208868

Looks like dems are at 2016 levels or a bit lower in dem % compared to clinton from early observation -

Hillsborough - 51% clinton and in this data has dem at 52% 2020
Palm Beach - 56% clinton 61% dem 2020 (i'm sure this will drop once election day comes in so prob 56%-58% in 2020 or so)
Broward - 66% clinton 63% dem 2020
Osceola - 60% clinton 55% dem 2020 (heavily hispanic county)

curious how it will be when we get more data within the next two weeks.

I'm looking at turnout too.  I am curious what kind of turnout we will get in three areas: South Florida, the Panhandle, and Orange County + surrounding counties. 

Yup agreed - Alachua (Gainesville) big college area looks okay wit the % for Biden, the panhandle is still registered as dem's so take that with a grain of salt most of those people haven't changed their registrations. I'll be curious on the margins and votes in Orange and Seminole too. 138k dem advantage today is only a slight increase, I can see once orange + miami start coming in it can be almost ~200k advantage but still far from where dems need to be in early voting. Great news for a close race as a republican.

buddy this is not how this works lol

Democrats, Republicans, and NPA(no party affiliated)/3rd Party voters requested absentee ballots in the state of Florida. The breakdown of those requests was 46-31-23 Democrat-Republican-Other.

As counties have mailed out those ballots in the past week almost 500,000 have already been returned.

https://twitter.com/KevinCate/status/1312388572830367744
Democrats have returned their ballots at a higher rate than Republicans, beyond their initial advantage in requests. This represents a shift from previous years. All this is stated in the tweet above.

If any importance is afforded to these early statistics Democrats look to be in great shape. Now I don't think these early numbers mean much other than people on both sides are eager to vote. But "Great news for a close race as a Republican" is hilariously wrong. You cannot ignore the 23% of VBM requests that come from voters not affiliated with the two major parties. I guarantee you that those voters favor Joe Biden as a whole because of the Democratic lean of the early vote in general, and possibly as a whole.

You say "still far from where Dems need to be in early voting". My question to you is where should Democrats "be" in early voting at this point, beyond outstripping Republicans in requests and outstripping Republicans even further in return rate?

Why are you comparing mail in voting from 2016 to 2020? we all know this is a different election and democrats will be banking on the mail in voting while republicans will bank in person voting? different from 2016 when repubs did well in mail in while dems did well with early voting. It's still very early regardless and need votes in from the exurbs and orange/miami-dade. I think ~120k is a great start for dems, i think the big question is how big the lead gets into election day to cancel out republicans turning out on election day by huge margins. Note - a lot of these 'dems' too are ancestral dems in the north who never changed their registration as well.

[republican1993]

NC early vote has only 15% of AA vote (2016 AA vote was 20%) and white vote is up since 2016 - does this sound concerning? given biden's shift to white voters this might still net out to trump + 3 atm but does this raise any red flags?

[republican1993]

Lots of new numbers today.  Up to 3.8 million votes.

Looks like Wayne, MI is up over 50,000.  Good sign for Biden?

I think that's good so far, are we expecting heavy in person voting on election day in wayne or banking early voting here? Dems prob need to bank at least 300k votes to get on track to do well in Wayne!

[republican1993]

https://twitter.com/lilcerberus/status/1313155012546252800

ready for the trump retweet on this.

[republican1993]

The current data in MI/WI is very concerning. I would be on the lookout for a potential upset.

Why is it concerning? how much votes need to be net out of these counties lol

[republican1993]

Targetsmart is garbage, mama.

are they off by a lot? i started using them today to check things out.

[republican1993]

https://twitter.com/DavidPepper/status/1313501402963021826

talk to me when dems hit 40k in this county.

[republican1993]

I am going to guess that If the democrats have at least a 20% lead in early-in person/mail votes in Florida once it totals over 5 million, they'll likely be able to win the state. It would be unimaginable to think that republicans can catch up with the other half of the vote on election day. There's over 5.5 million votes out too so it is possible we will get there.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17YKazYaUMZ33vmd4YHDKcVdlTkP5DmnHQQlAttwOzL0/edit#gid=1837208868

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/FL.html

so pretty much they have a 50/50 shot at this moment? i see the % going up slowly per day since republicans will be trickling in more votes the closer election day comes vs democrats eager to vote ASAP

[republican1993]

Just had my registration application approved in Virginia, I'm planning to vote in person this weekend.

Biden or Trump?

[republican1993]

boooo glad ur expressing ur duty to vote i am casting my vote this weekend too by mail for Trump (i think)

[republican1993]

AA vote in GA dropped 1% to 33% keeping an eye out if it will fall below 30... it's been dropping slowly with each day of new data.

[republican1993]

AA vote in GA dropped 1% to 33% keeping an eye out if it will fall below 30... it's been dropping slowly with each day of new data.

Wait for the early voting before really making any predictions. Same with North Carolina.

agreed i can see it stabilizing around 30% anything above 35% is great, but a lot of the urban areas have reported besides really Gwinnett is behind

[republican1993]

We got a surprising weekend absentee update in Wisconsin. Similar trends going on, but I have to say Milwaukee is really kicking butt right now! They returned 6,200 ballots since Friday's report. Only a little over 9,000 votes before they pass Dane County, who returned 4,054 since Friday. There is typically a surge on Monday/Tuesday after they've counted votes that came over the weekend. Wouldn't surprise me if Wisconsin cross over the 700,000 line then. Will have another map update on Tuesday.

Are republicans turning out in the same numbers? i've been hearing from people the turnout is pretty good for both sides.

[republican1993]

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17YKazYaUMZ33vmd4YHDKcVdlTkP5DmnHQQlAttwOzL0/edit#gid=1837208868

Dem lead 375k in Florida now.

Dems with a 7 point lead in Sumter county (The Villages) seems significant.

it's still very early and republicans have been crawling back in most of these republican counties to break even.

[republican1993]

I'm in line for early voting in McKinney and it's an hour long wait. This is insane.

you can vote by mail, vote on election day or wait a few days... LOL

[republican1993]

You can track live voter turnout in Tarrant here, and even see turnout by the hour.

https://www.tarrantcounty.com/en/elections/Upcoming-Election-Information/Live_Turn_Out_Widget.html

If that's just today's in-person numbers and not VBM, then Jesus!

42,402 early votes from today + 32,089 VBM ballots (not including today) = ~74,491 early votes

TARRANT COUNTY (Fort Worth) (On first day of early voting)
2012:   52,225       5.4% of registered voters
2016:   65,156       6.1%
2018:   62,971       5.6%
~2020: 74,491       6.2%

Doesn’t seem like a huge increase.

agreed all these videos of "long lines" is the same videos and stuff we saw in 2016

[republican1993]

Can we have a rundown on how voting is going in WI, MI, PA and NC? I haven't heard much about those states in over a week, and the ElectProject numbers recently seem to have stalled. Is it due to lags in reporting or have those states just blown their load already?

My Wisconsin Spreadsheet

can you provide me access

[republican1993]

Can we have a rundown on how voting is going in WI, MI, PA and NC? I haven't heard much about those states in over a week, and the ElectProject numbers recently seem to have stalled. Is it due to lags in reporting or have those states just blown their load already?

My Wisconsin Spreadsheet

can you provide me access

Does the link not work?

it's telling me it was will notify me via email when you accept access to the sheet

[republican1993]

Does Ohio look terrible for Biden at the moment? only 47k in Cuyahoga so far?

[republican1993]

Florida could be 700k lead for dems before election day if this holds up. i remember people saying 500 k would be sufficient but that will be reached easily

don't dems need at least a 20 point lead going into election day to win?

[republican1993]

Florida could be 700k lead for dems before election day if this holds up. i remember people saying 500 k would be sufficient but that will be reached easily

don't dems need at least a 20 point lead going into election day to win?

Right now it's 50-30-20 (Dems, Rep, Ind).  The independents are probably skewing towards Democrats in terms of their actual vote, so right now Democrats probably do have a 20 point lead. 

do you think republicans need to get to at leas 35%? or what

[republican1993]

1.3mil voted in harris county so getting 400k in 4 days isn't surprising - it'll start to slow down

[republican1993]

1.3mil voted in harris county so getting 400k in 4 days isn't surprising - it'll start to slow down

There's uh....3 weeks of early voting this year unlike 2 in the past, so it's pretty surprising lol. Also Harris County has 7 am to 10 pm ev the final 3 days of ev in 2 weeks and one day of 24 hour voting at 3 sites on oct 29th

uh... so there won't be 400k in 4 days for every week lol it's just people enthuastic to vote people do this each election with the more people voting but it's the same result

[republican1993]

Anyone have an idea how much the dems or reps margin in AZ to pull it off?

[republican1993]

Why is turnout so low today?  People don't have to work, so you think they'd have more time to go vote.

It’s not low in Virginia where I’ve been on line for nearly 3 hours....

Oof, I remember you waiting until more voting locations were open in Fairfax because you wanted to avoid the wait.

Yeah and I’ve been in line for almost 4 hours now...  I think.

that's crazy! enjoy voting - i wish i was able to cast my vote in person