Probably less than 40%, given they will be in government during the 2025 local elections.
The next major round of elections is set for May 2024, probably followed by the General Election in the second half of the year.
Sunak will hold the election as late as possible (i.e. in early 2025). A Christmas campaign would just annoy people and deny his government another month or two in office.
I don't agree. An election held in January would likely make the NHS the main issue, which is never good for the Tories. Additionally, there are the psychological factors of the cold weather and "new year, new government". Holding out until the very end presents bigger risks than an election in October or November.
Poll
